Even with the increased odds (-118), the Ravens getting a field goal here offers decent value. Tyler Huntley has cleared concussion protocol and gets the start for Baltimore, and as we've seen through the last couple seasons, he's more than capable (and athletic) enough to lead this offense, which also got a jolt in the arm last week with the return of J.K. Dobbins. The Browns are getting a significant boost from oddsmakers with Deshaun Watson back, and he should improve game to game as he finds his footing again. To this point, though, he's been nothing special. Take the Ravens here up to +3 (-120). I'll also have a moneyline sprinkle, though the odds (+135) aren't that tasty.

Njoku ran a route on 97 percent of the Browns' drop backs last week and trailed only Donovan Peoples-Jones in target share. Njoku turned 9 targets into seven receptions for 59 yards and a TD against the Bengals defense in week 14. He will face a Ravens defense that has been middle of the pack defending opposing tight ends this season. I expect Deshaun Watson to lean on Njoku against a Baltimore defense that is been a pass funnel.

Note that I put up over 224.5 yards passing on Deshaun Watson earlier today but took it down because Caesars actually had this number, which is obviously preferable -- we use Caesars odds but sometimes the system takes a bit to update and doing props on here is new to all of us so a bit of an adjustment period. That's why if you get my alerts, you are getting this again but at a better number for the over. Baltimore remains excellent against the run, should sell out to stop Nick Chubb and force a rusty Watson to win it through the air. I think having two games under his belt and making his home debut that Watson can at least throw for 216 yards against a Ravens defense allowing about 250 yards passing per game. Only five of Watson's 64 pass attempts this season have exceeded 20 yards downfield, but early this week offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt said downfield attempts from Watson should increase.

The Browns' rushing attack has a tough task ahead against a Ravens defense that has allowed the third fewest rush yards to RBs in the league and has been particularly elite since the trade deadline, surrendering 2.8 yards per rush in Baltimore's last six games. That means we shouldn't expect much rushing production at all from Hunt, who has seen more than six carries just twice since Week 5, both in games the Browns by double-digits. That's not expected to be the game script here, and since I don't like his chances of breaking off a long run against this top-tier rush defense, I have to think he's going under this number.

The key to the Browns being successful while Deshaun Watson rounds into form will be their ability to run the ball. But the Ravens have been elite defending the run since the last time they faced the Browns, giving up just 2.8 yards per rush in their last six games. If the Browns don't get an A-level game from Watson, it will be hard to win by more than a field goal as long as Tyler Huntley can play quarterback for Baltimore. He appears to be trending toward being available after practicing in full on Wednesday, though he'll need to get cleared by the independent neurologist. I want to be ahead of the line move while 3s are still available before he gets that clearance. If you're reading this later in the week and he's been ruled out, the Ravens aren't a side you want to be on at this number.

Obviously I'm hoping Tyler Huntley clears concussion protocol and is able to lead the Ravens into Cleveland, but even if it's Anthony Brown at quarterback, Baltimore can cover. Since acquiring linebacker Roquan Smith, the Ravens have allowed 55 rushing yards per game. That will put more pressure on Deshaun Watson. Cleveland just lost linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah to a season-ending foot injury, further weakening a bad rush defense. With the Ravens coming off a 215-yard rushing performance at Pittsburgh, I like them to at least keep it close if not win outright. Take the Ravens +3 at -120.

Saturday game. I'm pretty sure that Lamar Jackson will not play (the short week doesn't help) and it's possible backup Tyler Huntley will not, either, after leaving Sunday's upset win at Pittsburgh with a concussion. It's the Cleveland home debut of Deshaun Watson, who admittedly has not looked great thus far, but if the Browns at home can't beat Huntley/Anthony Brown, well ... It's also desperation time for Cleveland as it will have to win out to have any playoff shot.