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While the injury news has been devastating for the Bills -- who will be missing their entire starting secondary -- the Dolphins got good news as CB Xavien Howard and LT Terron Armstead are active. This is going to be an entertaining shootout. Even if the Bills go up by double digits, I like Miami to get through the back door if not win outright.
Even considering Buffalo's injury-depleted defense, the Bills' dominance of this series, not to mention their next-level showings in the first two weeks, are too much to ignore. Buffalo won last year's matchups by a combined score of 61-11, including 35-0 in Miami. Although the Dolphins are an improved and exciting team, this franchise notoriously can't maintain success. In other words, on the heels of their most brilliant performance since Dan Marino retired, look for the Dolphins to endure their patented letdown spot. Buffalo rolls again.
Both teams have won and covered their first two games, and while Buffalo wasn’t tested in either, the Dolphins had a dramatic 42-38 win at Baltimore, aided by a 28-3 fourth quarter. I could look at it as “the Dolphins were getting pounded” and bet against them, siding with the highest-rated NFL team. Or I could look at it and say the Dolphins' passing game can’t be stopped. My push toward taking the points came when I saw that the Bills' secondary is all banged up. I like the Dolphins to expose it. I took the points with the Dolphins.
Buffalo looks awesome. But as I can attest, it's freaking hot in south Florida. Short week. Bills cornerback Dane Jackson (neck), safety Micah Hyde (neck) and defensive tackles Jordan Phillips (hamstring) and Ed Oliver (ankle) have been ruled out. Couple of other guys are iffy. Now we find out if Tua is for real.
A total this substantial should be confined to matchups of offensive steamrollers. Buffalo fits. Miami? Well, an impressive 28-point explosion in the fourth quarter against Baltimore last Sunday does not a powerhouse make. In the previous seven quarters this season, Miami managed 38 points and last year’s unit was 25th best based on yardage gained. The Bills’ tenacious defense will have a say in the Under. It held the mighty Rams to 10 points in the opener, then followed with a seven-point gem against Tennessee.
The Bills are the top team in my power ratings prior to their Week 2 game against the Titans, which they are expected to win handily. But considering this is a divisional game on the road, this line represents a clear lack of respect for what the Dolphins have done the last two weeks. The Bills defense is more healthy than the unit Baltimore trotted out in Week 2, sure, but plenty of bad defenses play every week and rarely give up that type of performance. With the Dolphins having one of the better home-field advantages in the league, this line is saying the Bills should be 7.5 or 8 points better than the Dolphins on a neutral field, and I just don't see it with this Miami team.
AI Best Prop Picks
Best prop picks are generated from a combination of Sportsline AI's projection, analysis of the opposing team, and the bets value based on the current odds.
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