Taking the worst line of the week here with the Bills, though it should come down to -6.5 again before kickoff. Though this is a marginal pick (I have Buffalo as an 8-point favorite), the absences of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram really deplete an already thin group of playmakers. The Saints defense, which has been praised endlessly this season, has allowed 29.3 points per game over the last four contests. If New Orleans is unable to sustain drives, Buffalo is going to have chance after chance to light up the scoreboard. The Bills are better their record and need a get-right spot. This should be it.

Buffalo is in desperate need of a "get-right" game, after what we saw Sunday against the Colts. The Bills get exactly that in a Saints team coming off a bad loss to the Eagles, one in which they gave up more than 200 yards rushing on the ground. Without Alvin Kamara and a questionable Mark Ingram, this Saints offense will be all on the shoulders of QB Trevor Siemian. That's not a good look for New Orleans.

The radically inconsistent Bills have been presented a chance to get things right on a silver Thanksgiving Day platter. RB Alvin Kamara, the Saints’ leader in rushing, catches and touchdowns even while missing three consecutive games, has been ruled out for a fourth straight. Backup Mark Ingram, recently signed out of desperation, is questionable, and both regular OTs could sit. Buffalo is prone to alternating Super-Bowl like performances with stinkers, and it is coming off a 26-point drubbing from the Colts.

The Bills' No. 1 defense got roasted last week in a 41-15 loss to the Colts, and it was in Buffalo. The Bills are now 6-4 and 5-4-1 ATS and have lost three of their last five. Sound the alarms. Is something is wrong? The Jaguars solved the Rubik's Cube that was the Buffalo attack three weeks ago, and the Colts dominated the Bills. But the Saints have lost three straight and have Trevor Siemian starting at quarterback, while their top two running backs are questionable. I like the Bills to get back to scoring a few TDs, and maybe the defense scoring as well, to get the cover.

The Saints are coming off three straight losses, though they've managed to score more than 20 points in each. But the scoreboard last week was a mirage; the Saints did absolutely nothing for most of three quarters, with one TD drive of six yards and a bunch of punts and turnovers. Down big, they managed to finally get it going against a soft defense, but that doesn't mean we can just pencil them in for 20 points here, especially with another brutal final injury report on the short week. The Bills offense has struggled mightily since the bye against non-Jets opponents, and I'm done counting on a magical fix. This feels like a game destined for a 24-17 type of final.

I really don't like giving this many points on the road in a short week, but the Saints will be without Alvin Kamara again .. and may not have Mark Ingram, either. If they had a good quarterback and some great receivers, that might not matter, but New Orleans doesn't. The Who Dats also are down their No. 1 tight end. Buffalo has tended to follow a lousy game this season with a blowout. The Under might be a wise play, too.

This is a nice bounceback spot for the Bills after their embarrassing home loss to the Colts. Buffalo was minus-4 in turnover margin in that game, but has not lost two straight this season. Most of the Saints' production at Philly came in garbage time. Expect the Bills' defense to dominate the banged-up New Orleans offense. While the Saints typically stop the run, they're vulnerable to big-play passing attacks like Buffalo's. Lay the points.