One of the more peculiar losses on the season happened last week as the Bengals fell to the Jets. Look for the wake-up call to get the Bengals going Sunday against division rivals in the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland, which once looked like a formidable playoff team, has lost its team identity. Take the Bengals.

This is a value spot for the Bengals coming off a terrible loss to the Jets facing a Browns team that has not only dealt with distraction inside their organization but an injured quarterback in Baker Mayfield who simply does not look like himself week to week. Cleveland's ground game gives me a bit of pause, but it is middle of the road offensively averaging 13.7 points over its last three games. Cincinnati should be able to utilize its weapons throughout all four quarters, and with Ja'Marr Chase likely to get man coverage, Joe Burrow should be able to exploit the matchup.

The Browns have won the last two meetings in the battle for Ohio, but the Bengals have covered the last three meetings. The Browns' injured list looks like an entire roster. However, the Bengals don’t have that killer instinct yet to put away teams; crush the Ravens in Week 7, lose at the Jets in Week 8. But the Browns have lost three of their last four. When the spread shifted down to -2.5, I bought in on the Bengals to cover.

Nice bounce back spot for the Bengals here with an even better number. Cincinnati is 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS this season after a loss, not to mention Joe Burrow is 7-1 ATS in his NFL career following a loss as well. As for Cleveland? Get this. The Browns are 0-9 ATS in its last nine regular season games vs. AFC North opponents. Baker Mayfield has lost three straight starts to top it all off.

This had risen to 3 so let's grab it now at -2.5 just in case. That Cleveland offense is broken right now with Baker Mayfield clearly impaired with his major left shoulder injury. Pro Bowl right tackle Jack Conklin will miss at least this game and he's one of the best run-blockers in the NFL. If the Browns can't run on the Bengals, they can't win in Mayfield's current condition. Then there's the whole Odell Beckham Jr. distraction. I disregard Cincinnati's loss last week at the Jets for the most part as it was a classic letdown game.

Maybe the Bengals were sloppy against the New York Jets because they got caught reading their own press clippings. I'm more concerned about their defense not being able to get key stops late in that game more than anything. Something just seems off about the Browns' offense, and I feel as though QB Baker Mayfield may be hurting himself long-term by playing through his injury. Look for the Bengals to put it all on Mayfield's shoulder (pun intended), forcing him to win the game.

This line is telling you that these teams are basically even at this point of the season, but I don't think that's true at all. The Bengals, playing their third straight road game, lost to a team they shouldn't have in a letdown spot last week, but they've done enough to earn respect prior to that, including throttling a good Ravens team on the road. The Browns have scored 17 points or less in four of their last five games, and their defense only really looked good against a struggling Denver team in their last four. The Bengals also aren't vulnerable to the run, ranking fifth in yards per rush allowed, so I don't know where Cleveland's offensive success comes from.