Though I understand the love for the Patriots in this spot, it feels like a lot of comes from not realizing where both of these teams stand in 2021. Namely, the Cowboys have one of the most explosive offenses in the league alongside a steadily improving defense, while the Patriots wins this season have come against, wait for it, the Texans and the Jets. New England gets credit for limiting Tampa Bay in a 19-17 loss two weeks ago, but that final forgets the weather and the Buccaneers' numerous miscues. It's strange to say it, but I think, finally, the Cowboys are for real. Their 5-0 ATS mark this season proves that they continue to be undervalued, and I think Dallas makes a statement on Sunday afternoon.

The Cowboys are just playing too well right now. Meanwhile the Patriots have just two wins, both against awful teams -- the Jets and Texans with rookie quarterbacks. Dallas is far from an awful team, and Dak Prescott is no rookie. Cowboys cover easily.

Last Sunday, the Patriots found themselves down 22-9 against Houston and QB Davis Mills. The deficit forced New England to open things up more under rookie QB Mac Jones, who responded with three drives that led to field goals and another that produced a touchdown. Look for Jones to show growth and for the Patriots and challenge a Cowboys team that has not been on the road since Sept. 19.

I added a half-point to the Cowboys' power rating this week and dropped the Patriots a full point, and that still put this game at only Cowboys -1.5. The Cowboys are certainly the better team, but Bill Belichick showed against the Buccaneers he can put together a gameplan to hang with an elite offense. New England was served a wakeup call last week, and while you can argue the Patriots should be 1-4 after almost losing to the Texans, they could also be 4-1 after outplaying the Dolphins in a loss and coming up just short against Tampa Bay. Flip the timing of the Houston and Tampa Bay games and I think this line comes in under 3.

Wiseguys have been betting the Patriots while every public parlay has the Cowboys on it. In this instance, the public knows what it's doing. The Cowboys have covered every game using a different style in each case. Run, pass or defense -- they’re doing it all very well. The Patriots have beaten the Jets and Texans and lost to the Dolphins. The Cowboys are polished and in a different class. Cowboys to win. I'm taking the money line.

The Cowboys look fabulous offensively, but are you aware that the Patriots have had 13 straight games played with 47 total points scored or fewer? While part of that is a sometimes shaky offense, Bill Belichick knows what he's doing on defense. These are two incredibly public teams and the public likes points -- thus, it has been bet up from 48 to 50.5. However, the sharps are fully expected to swoop in this weekend and hammer the Under (and the Pats ATS for what that's worth). So let's take Under this number now.

It has been an impressive second year for CB Trevon Diggs, who doesn't miss any opportunity to pick off passes. What's impressive about the Cowboys defense is that they are fast close quickly to the ball carrier. That's good to have against a rookie QB in New England's Mac Jones, who doesn't particularly push the ball downfield with any confidence. Look for the Cowboys defense to set the tone, while their offense will put the game out of reach.