It seems as if bettors are still reeling from the Week 1 bleep-show that Green Bay put forward. Let me tell you what's happened since: The Packers are 3-0 ATS showing a much-improved offensive output with Aaron Rodgers back to his normal self. This line is just about right with Green Bay as a road favorite, but what's not being considered is which teams the Bengals have defeated so far this season to get their three wins. Look for another big game for Davante Adams and the Packers to cover a modest spread, particularly now that it's under the key number.

Now that this has dipped under 3, we'll take a shot on the Packers even though they are without shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander. The Bengals really haven't beaten anyone and probably should have lost to winless Jacksonville in Week 4. Cincinnati is 1-6 ATS in its past seven following a victory.

Green Bay has covered three straight games thanks to opportunistic plays by both the defense and offense. This may be their toughest challenge yet as they’ll face a Cincinnati team that has had extra days off. Look for the Bengals' problem of playing four quarters of solid football to catch up to them. Back the Packers to win their fourth straight contest.

Aaron Rodgers just hasn't looked like himself this season, especially when he has been pressured. I think the Bengals will be able to get pressure on him. On the other side of the ball, Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow has been solid, posting the sixth best passer rating (113.8) in the league. He should be able to find holes in the Green Bay defense. I'm on the Bengals.

Green Bay is favored because of name recognition only. The Packers are ranked No. 23 in total defense, while the Bengals are ranked No. 5 at Football Outsiders. The Packers are ranked No. 31 in opponent red-zone scoring while the Bengals are ranked No. 12. The Packers have played a slightly tougher schedule, but the Bengals are at home with extra time to prepare and get healthy. Not much difference. You haver to love winning teams getting points at home with the much better defense. Take the home dog in this potential upset.

Cincinnati's defense has looked good in the early-going but has benefitted from playing a lot of questionable offensive lines. Well, don't we still have questions about the Packers OL, especially on the right side with two rookies lined up next to Billy Turner? The Packers offense is scoring points but sits more than a full point down in yards per play from last year, ranking 22nd in the stat. The Joe Mixon injury might be good for the Bengals, as it could force them to pass more against a Green Bay defense likely without Jaire Alexander, making the Bengals' talented WR trio (Tee Higgins is expected back) tough to defend. Casual bettors will be hopping on the Packers at this number; don't fall for it.