The Rams have two elite defenders in Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, plus a healthier offensive line that can move the pile. Look for the Rams defense and run game to keep this one very close.

The Packers are my highest-rated team in the league entering the NFL Playoffs, and they are under a touchdown at home against a team with a middling offense. There's a reason Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers are so successful at Lambeau Field in January, and it's the familiarity with the elements (along with the fact that Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks of all-time). The Rams defense is great and deserves a lot of respect, but it's one thing to shut down the struggling Seahawks and quite another to stop Rodgers and the Packers. Green Bay's balance will get the cover, and Jared Goff is a tough matchup anyway let alone with an injured thumb in cold weather.

Keeping the spread under a touchdown supports the belief that the Rams’ stellar defense assures a close contest. Yet, L.A. must generate points to cover, and how can the Rams cause the scoreboard to blink with a slumping QB inhibited by an injured thumb? Besides, Jared Goff has bombed in cold weather, though the sample size of two games is minimal. The Packers yielded an average of 18,6 ppg over the final six weeks, which augurs poorly for an opponent laboring to score. Rest is a blessing in the playoffs, so that’s another checked box for the bye-welcoming Packers.

I think Green Bay covers with ease. L.A.'s defense is good, but the Packers should be able to move the ball behind the Aarons -- Rodgers and Jones. I'm also expecting a big game from receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling. On the other side of the ball, Rams quarterback Jared Goff, who's nursing a broken thumb, will struggle against an underrated Green Bay defense. The Packers are my best bet to win the whole thing.

Los Angeles doesn't know who its starting quarterback will be, and its best receiver (Cooper Kupp) and arguably the NFL's best defensive player (Aaron Donald) are banged up -- although no doubt going to play. The Packers are well-rested, and it will be quite chilly at Lambeau on Saturday, which is an obvious disadvantage to the warm-weather Rams. Aaron Rodgers will finally get to host an NFC title game -- I don't usually bet NFL games this early in a week, but with the spread falling under 7 will do so. Green Bay has covered six straight in the series.

It's tempting to take the dog here but with the Rams dealing with injury issues at quarterback, wideout and on the defensive line, Green Bay is the play. The Packers are clicking offensively and had an extra week to gameplan. Moreover, the wind chill will be in the low 20s. Look for Aaron Rodgers to improve to 11-5-1 ATS alltime when getting two weeks to prepare.

The Rams may very well have the best defense in the league coming into this matchup, but the Packers offense has been nearly impossible to stop all year, ranking first in several key categories like yards per drive, red-zone success rate, percentage of drives ending in a score, turnover rate, and so on. I've also been impressed by their defense, which shut down a great Tennessee offense in Week 16 before doing the same to a hot Bears offense to earn the No. 1 seed. Coming to Lambeau in January and competing would be hard at full health, but with the Rams' injury issues at QB and with star defender Aaron Donald, I don't think they manage to cover here.