I have been sitting here waiting for William Hill to shift this to Bears +3.5 off +3 as other books already had done -- and it finally happened. I think Chicago could easily win this outright as the Bears will gear up to stop Dalvin Cook and dare Kirk Cousins (0-9 SU & ATS on MNF all-time) to beat them. Doubt he can do that. Matt Nagy isn't a very good head coach -- he has given up offensive play-calling finally -- but for some reason owns the Vikings. His teams generally play well in primetime.

The week’s most overblown stat is QB Kirk Cousins’ 0-9 straight-up record on Monday nights. As a whole, the opponents were top-tier, and Cousins often played for the underdog. Neither applies this time, with Chicago in such an offensive doldrum that coach Matt Nagy has lateraled play-calling chores to an aide. The Bears average south of 20 points per game. Cousins’ Mondays have never been blessed with a RB like the Minnesota's Dalvin Cook, the premier rusher in the league.

Vikings stock is as high as can be coming off two impressive wins where Dalvin Cook tallied 478 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns. Bears stock is as low as can be after losing three straight games, including an abysmal effort from Nick Foles' offense last week. But nothing is constant in the NFL, and I love this matchup for Chicago, a team that just limited the Titans offense to 228 yards and shut down Derrick Henry. Throw in Kirk Cousins absolutely flopping on Monday nights (0-9 ATS) and Chicago winning four straight against this Minnesota team, and it starts to look like this spread is well off the number it should be. Get +3 while you can.

Kirk Cousins has a terrible history on Monday Night Football, and the Bears have beaten Minnesota four straight times. But the Vikings, led by Dalvin Cook, came out of their bye a different team. Since then they've beaten the Packers and Lions while averaging 31 points. I'll lay the small number against the crumbling Bears.

The Bears have won the last four meetings in this series, but they have now lost three straight. The Vikings have won their last two and covered five of their last six. The success begins with more Dalvin Cook and less Kirk Cousins. When Cook gets at least 22 carries this season, he runs for 130-plus yards, has scored nine TDs and the Vikings covered all four games. Cook was not featured in any of the previous four meetings. I bet he is Monday, and the play is on the Vikings.