With Lane Johnson and DeSean Jackson back, I like the Eagles to take care of business against the Giants. Fletcher Cox should dominate Nick Gates up front, and the Philly offense should have just enough to get past New York by a touchdown on Thursday night.

There is not much distance between the four NFC East teams, but what I have seen from the Eagles is a never-say-die attitude that makes Philadelphia a tough out in any game it plays. Offensive line issues have plagued Eagles, but the return of Lane Johnson should help. While I hate that Philadelphia does not have Miles Sanders in tow on Thursday night, it does have the benefit of being at home on a short week against a Giants team that exerted a lot of effort in squeezing out a win over Washington. This is not necessarily a comfortable pick given how poorly these teams have played, but I have the Eagles as a six-point favorite, so I'm laying the number despite this being a rough season to date.

All of the various simulations have the Eagles winning by around six, but they don't take injuries into account. Philly will be without star running back Miles Sanders (leads NFL RBs in ypc), both top tight ends, two key receivers, three starting offensive linemen and one key defensive lineman. The Giants reportedly may get back WR Sterling Shepard. They also have covered six straight road games, the longest current such streak in the league. Philly, meanwhile, has just one cover this season.

The Eagles have won the last seven meetings with the Giants but only covered the spread in three of them, and the Eagles come in with all kinds of injuries to key personnel. Carson Wentz has gotten sacked an NFL-high 25 times and has the second most picks (9), but I see him hustling and trying to make stuff happen on his own, which I like. The Giants got their first win last week and looked terrible getting it. I’m on the better of the worst. Eagles to cover.

I like the Eagles as the -3.5 home favorite, as my simulations have them as -4.1 at a neutral site, and -5.7 in this "home" game. The lookahead line on this game was -7 and that's right in line with where my data was. We're seeing the market overreacting to the loss of Miles Sanders and Zach Ertz, but my simulations suggest it isn't much of a loss. This line should be -5 or -5.5. Lay it.

The Giants are coming off their first win, and they continue to play solid defense. But against the Eagles they'll need their offense to do a lot more. Philly is a resilient team that forces its opponents to play a full 60 minutes. I don't think the Giants have enough in their offensive arsenal to stay within a touchdown.