Hate to be reactionary with Julio Jones ruled out, but well, his absence is worth at least a couple of points for a Falcons team that is short of game-breakers and should struggle to move the ball against the Saints defense. Atlanta revealed its true self last week in a loss to Tampa Bay, and New Orleans is turning around from a victory over Carolina that was much closer than it should have been. Revenge + healthy Saints + lacking Falcons secondary = the only favorite to cover on Thanksgiving.

With Julio Jones inactive and Marshon Lattimore back, the Saints look like a strong play in this game. I worry about the offensive line holding up in front of Drew Brees with multiple players hurt, but Sean Payton has dominated Dan Quinn in their second matchup each season (4-0 ATS), and I expect the Saints to keep the pressure on for four quarters after getting blown out by this team a few weeks ago. I don't like hopping on such a public play, with the Saints getting 80 percent of the bets, but the late injury news with Jones makes them a solid bet even at -7.

The Falcons resembled a playoff team in road wins over New Orleans and Carolina as their defense was dominant. But they suffered a 35-22 home loss against Tampa Bay last week, with the score not indicative of how awful they played. That version is the team Atlanta really is. The Saints get their revenge and cover.

Don't expect a lot of offense from the Falcons. Julio Jones (shoulder) won't be 100 percent if he plays. The Saints will run it a ton, which will churn the clock. Go Under.

This seems like a big number to lay on a short week on the road, but the Falcons simply have no answer for Michael Thomas. The Saints are relatively healthy with Thomas, Kamara, Brees and Murray all at full strength for this game. I have minor concerns with the short rest and the holiday, but simulations make the Saints -8.5 road favorites.

Atlanta reverted to form last week. The Saints have scored 34 points in each of the past two games. Alvin Kamara is healthy and playing great. And the Falcons don't have an answer for Michael Thomas. Lay the points as New Orleans gets revenge for the recent home loss to Atlanta.

Atlanta was able to post a convincing victory in New Orleans two weeks ago. But the Falcons still are struggling to run the ball. Offensively, the Saints seem to have recovered nicely from that humbling setback against their hated rival and will be coming into this rematch with revenge on their minds.