Although I'm not necessarily buying the hype on the 49ers as a playoff contender as their season-win total odds (9) suggest, they should be improved and in the game to the wire Sunday. The Vikings made a lateral -- at best -- move at quarterback in Kirk Cousins, though he he has plenty of weapons to work with. This is just a bit too steep of a line, and the Vikings might be the biggest public side in Week 1.

There is no part of me that believes in Jimmy Garoppolo -- at least to the extent that 49ers fans appear to. In six games with San Francisco last year, he threw seven touchdowns and five picks. Candidly, I'm surprised this is not a touchdown spread with the Vikings at home and Mike Zimmer basically getting all offseason to game plan for Week 1. The 24-10 ATS mark at home is not lost on me, and neither is a strong Vikings defense that should help them earn a clean win to open the season. Let's also not forget who the 49ers just lost on offense.

Now we'll see how good the newly anointed one, 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, really is. The test in Minnesota was already daunting, what with the Vikes having yielded a mere 12.5 points per game at home last season. A season-ending injury to the 49ers' second-least-dispensable offensive player, running back Jerrick McKinnon, puts Jimmy G behind the eight ball. The Vikings do not need a smashing debut from its new quarterback Kirk Cousins. Effective game management that generates 24 points or so will suffice in a matchup that should wind up south of 40 points.

The secret to Mike Zimmer's success (44-21 ATS) entering his fifth season has been a conservative offense. It's part of the reason I don't like the move to get Kirk Cousins. But the home-field edge is huge in Minnesota and its defense is the best. The Vikings are 15-4 ATS in the last three seasons as home favorites. The 49ers won their final five games last season, but in at least four of them, it was circumstantial due to a key player being out or a team resting starters. I'm on the Vikings to take care of business at home.

Not a believer in the 49ers defense, especially with Reuben Foster out and several key defensive linemen dealing with injuries in the preseason. The Vikings should be able to move the ball with ease against this unit, while I have a hard time imagining the 49ers doing the same against the Vikings' elite defense, especially in Minnesota. I think we'll look back at this line in a few weeks and wonder why it was where it was and not in double-digits.

This line should be 7, and I won't be surprised if it gets there by kickoff. While I normally hate laying big points in Week 1, it's warranted in this case. The 49ers' strong 2017 finish and offseason hype certainly played a role in keeping the line under 7. Now they face the league's No. 1 defense in Minnesota, where the Vikings are 24-10 ATS under Mike Zimmer. Look for Kirk Cousins to go right after 30-year-old Richard Sherman and for the new-look Minny offense to make a slew of big plays.