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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
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Expert Picks
At some point, the edges have to matter. Philadelphia has homefield advantage, sure, but Minnesota enters with the better quarterback and defense, the latter of which is the No. 1 unit in the entire league. We just saw what happened with the Jaguars against the Patriots, and the Eagles do not have the players the Pats do on offense. This is going to be a close game, a nail-biter. But considering I'm getting just a field goal for a team that likely deserves to be a 4- or 5-point favorite, I have no issue siding with the Vikings to win and become the first team to play the Super Bowl in their home stadium.
I still hold firmly that Nick Foles is just a 2 1/2-point dropoff from Carson Wentz. Foles' QB rating was over 100 in two of his three starts where he played the entire game. I have both teams rated equally with Foles as the starting QB for the Eagles. At home, the Eagles' defense allows just 4.8 yards per play. The added incentive of the entire crowd wearing dog masks for the underdog will only help the Eagles' intensity. Back Philly.
You never expected to read these words: Minnesota will reach the Super Bowl largely because Case Keenum gives the Vikings a bold-faced checkmark in the QB matchup. Since Philadelphia’s Carson Wentz went down, the Eagles are averaging a measly four yards for each snap. Over the regular season, the worst offenses were a half-yard better. If Philly’s attack has been frozen against recent foes, imagine how it will fare against the league’s least forgiving defense. For Nick Foles, Wentz’s fill-in, Philly had to resort to a low-risk passing approach with safe and short throws against Atlanta. That will not suffice against the Vikes. The occasional mid-to-deep-range strike must be tried. The old Foles could make it happen. The latest edition? Not so sure. At a 3.5-point spread and a points-starved game in the forecast, Minnesota was less appetizing. Now that it’s down to a field goal, which offers protection against a push, it’s Vikes all the way, especially with Keenum’s confidence soaring after his game-winning throw last weekend.
The biggest mismatch in this game is at one of the most important positions. Eagles left tackle Halapoulivaati Vaitai cannot handle Minnesota's Everson Griffen. That will cause a domino effect that will keep Nick Foles uncomfortable all game. Take the Vikings to advance to play the Super Bowl at home.
This game features two teams that mirror one another. Both have great defenses and the ability to run the ball. The Eagles are a bit better in that capacity, but the passing game edge goes toward the Vikings. This one will go back and forth, which is why the line makes sense. It also makes sense that Minnesota has the edge on the perimeter to make a few more plays than the Eagles.
If this total seems to be rock-bottom for a championship game, it is. You must reach back 13 seasons to find a number so low. (With a total of 37.5, Atlanta and Philadelphia joined to score 38.) Case Keenum has carved out a quietly impressive season. His QB ranking was eighth among starters, His TD passes amount was tied for 11th. Nick Foles? Not so much. After a big splash in his debut after Carson Wentz went down last month, he has been treading water, if that. But his list of previous accomplishments is sprinkled with gems such as a remarkable 119 passer rating as the Eagles starter in 2013. Besides, both QBs are flush with weapons. WR Stefon Diggs provides Keenum with a deep threat, as the Saints can attest once they recover from the shock. WR Adam Thielen has the surest hands of any young pass-catcher around. Foles can lean on WR Alshon Jeffery, who can turn a slightly errant throw into a reception. TE Zach Ertz has few peers at his position. Plus, all indications are that Mother Nature will make it possible for plenty of scoring.
It won't be as cold in Philadelphia this week as it was in the Eagles' last game, and the wind won't be as bad, but there is a slight chance of rain. I think we're going to see both teams try to establish the run and be conservative, waiting for each other to make mistakes offensively. This is a matchup of Minnesota's No. 1 defense against Philadelphia's No. 4 defense and I'm expecting them to be the story of the game and keep it Under.
I'm going against a 4-25 ATS playoff trend here where underdogs that win outright one week, fail to cover the spread the following week. Atlanta and Tennessee not covering last week contributed to the trend. But that stat doesn't apply in my mind with the Eagles, because they shouldn't have been underdogs in the first place against the Falcons in the Divisional round. The rapid downward spiral of the Eagles' rating due to Nick Foles poor performances in his final two starts of the regular season still hasn't been adjusted back upward following his impressive performance last week. This number is saying he can't do it again. I disagree and like the Eagles to come with a similar plan committed to the run and for their defense to set the tone and make it a grind-it-out game. I'm on the Eagles taking the gift points and also to win outright.
I understand why the Vikings have to be favored here, but if I can get the hook on the Eagles, I'm definitely taking that side. Homefield matters, and the Eagles have now given up 10 points or less in six of their nine home games this year. The Vikings can also have issues at times moving the ball away from home, and their defense surrendered 23 points or more four times on the road during the regular season while not allowing more than 19 at home. If the typical road Vikings show up in Philadelphia, the Eagles have a great chance of keeping the margin within a field goal and potentially advancing to the Super Bowl.
Playing at home, the Eagles' defense carried them past the Falcons. That same defense should show up big-time against a Minnesota team that didn't exactly blow the doors off the Saints. Plus the Vikings' defense has not been as fierce on the road. In my simulations, the Eagles are winning outright exactly half the time. That makes them a tremendous play at +145.