The Lions rank 30th in yards per play and now they're facing the NFL's top defense. Back Pittsburgh to overcome a Detroit team that overachieved early this year.

Small price to pay for a healthy, more talented Steelers team despite it being on the road against an underrated Lions defense. Though this game may be low-scoring, Detroit does not seem to have enough healthy weapons to keep the pressure on Pittsburgh's second-ranked D all night. The Steelers are going to be ready to handle the Lions, and handle them they will on Sunday night.

Lions QB Matthew Stafford has endured 23 sacks, second most in the league, and could be running for his life against the Steelers, whose defense has caused 24 sacks, tied for second most. The Steelers have neglected to cover in only three of their past 11 away games, which puts them in an enviable position against a foe on a 1-4 ATS home slide. With Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger in decline, the team has turned to workhorse Le’Veon Bell, who has rewarded them with 303 rushing yards on 67 carries the past two weeks.

I expect this total to drop. The Steelers have an elite defense and get to face a somewhat one-dimensional offense in Detroit that could be missing Golden Tate. The Lions are actually better defensively, and if the Steelers are going to lay an egg in this game, it's going to be on the offensive side. Either way, I don't expect much scoring from the Detroit offense, so I'm happy to get this many points on the total.

The Steelers got a ratings boost of nearly a half-point last week because of getting their running game going in a 29-14 win against the Bengals while the Lions dropped almost the same amount following their Week 6, 52-38, loss at New Orleans. That's a differential of 2.5-points between the two teams and the Lions get 2.5-points for home field advantage at Ford Field, so my raw number shows pick 'em. However, public perception plays a roll as well and the Week 7 Steelers are fresh on the public mind. Lets give that an additional 1.5-points which comes out with my proper line being Steelers -1.5. So I have to take the points with Detroit, which is 5-0 ATS in its last five coming off a bye.

The spot here seems to favor the Lions, with Detroit playing at home and coming off a bye week while the Steelers just got up for two big wins against the Chiefs and Bengals and could be in for a letdown. However, the vast difference in talent between these two teams makes the Steelers an easy call for me laying a field goal on Sunday night. The Steelers are the best team in the league right now, with DVOA ranking them fifth on offense and second on defense overall. Detroit has been a bit above average as well, but that's on the strength of a solid defense and the league's No. 1 special teams unit. In short, the Lions offense is just bad. The Steelers can dominate this game by not giving the ball away and not allowing Lions returners the opportunity to break big plays. On that first point, the Steelers have done a much better job protecting the ball after Ben Roethlisberger's five-pick game, turning it over just once in their last two games.

The Steelers’ offense has underachieved, averaging a mediocre 21 points per game. But on the other side, the Lions’ offense ranks 26th in yards gained per game, and it'll be matching up against a Steelers’ D No. 2 in the league in yards allowed and No. 3 in points given up. My projections have the Under hitting 67 percent of the time, making it a good value.

The Steelers are getting hot at the right time but facing a Lions team that's coming off a bye with their backs against the wall. In my opinion, this Lions team is 2 PLAYS away from being 5-2. This is the type of game a Jim Caldwell team can, and will, win. Take Detroit.