The New York Knicks have not stepped onto the court in nine days, since they swept the Philadelphia 76ers. It has also been since May 6th when they last had their starting lineup together with OG Anunoby. Cleveland's only win against the Knicks was with new acquisitions in Dennis Shroeder and James Harden. Additionally, Max Strus did not play in any of the three matchups due to injury. Look for the Cavs versatile lineup to give the Knicks trouble in game one, as well as pressure on this Knicks team to avoid a repeat game one loss in the ECF. Grab the points with the Cavaliers.

When the Cavs are at their absolute best, they dictate the pace and get over the total as they did in four of the final five games in the Detroit series. I think they're going to play well at Madison Square Garden tonight, and the total is only 217.5. In the three regular-season meetings, the lowest total was 228.5 and the highest total was 241.5. The Knicks haven't played in 9 days, and they might experience some rust early on, but the Cavs are only two days removed from crushing it in Detroit. I like the Cavs to play their normal game and get over the total.

The Cavaliers will play competitive basketball when James Harden and Donovan Mitchell have a decent game, but when Evan Mobley steps up as well, the Cavs play at a championship level. They proved it by winning four of the final five games against Detroit in the last round. Mobley went over his point total in his last four games. He averaged 16 points in three meetings with the Knicks this season. During the regular season, Mobley averaged 18.2 points per game, and in the postseason, he averaged 17 points per game. The total is too tempting to pass at 15.5. Mobley over the point total.

Jalen Brunson averaged 6.8 assists on the season, but he hit seven assists just one time in the four wins vs. the 76ers in Round 2. In three regular-season games vs. the Cavaliers, he totaled 4-5 assists in each game. Three seasons ago the Knicks and Cavs faced off in five playoff games, and Brunson’s series high was six.

OG Anunoby missed the last two games vs. the 76ers. He was productive prior to that, but the Cavs have given him problems. The last two games he’s scored just 8 and 5 points, and grabbed only 2 and 3 rebounds. His scoring has been up in the playoffs, and he did rebound well vs. the Hawks in Round 1, but didn’t get over five boards in either game vs. Philly. His hamstring strain could limit that rebound-getting explosiveness. In three regular-season games returning from injury, Anunoby’s rebound totals were 0, 2 and 0.

The Cavs don’t just want to score, they need to score to be successful. The Over was 4-0 in their four wins vs. the Pistons, the Under hit in all three games the Cavs lost. The Knicks mostly shut down the Sixers, but scored 137 and 144 in two of the four wins, and put up 140 and 126 in their last two vs. the Hawks in Round 1. The two regular-season meetings in NYC totaled 230 and 250.

Karl-Anthony Towns has hit his assist prop in 7 straight postseason games, averaging 8.0 assists per game, with at least 6 in each. During the 7-game stretch, KAT is averaging 8.1 assist chances per game, playing only 26 minutes a game due to blowouts and foul trouble. He had 10 in Game 4 vs. the 76ers in less than 20 minutes, and that wasn’t a one-off, as he hit his prop in all 4 games vs. the Sixers, playing no more than 27 minutes in any game. And it's not just in the postseason. He averaged 6.5 assists per game in the final four games of the regular season. Going back to April 1 (15 games), KAT is averaging 6.1 assists per game.

Jarrett Allen likely will be tasked with guarding Josh Hart, which should enable him to roam the paint and collect rebounds. Allen got manhandled by the Knicks in the 2023 playoff series and will be looking to make a statement that he's not the same player. In his most recent meeting with the Knicks, Allen grabbed 10 rebounds in 29 minutes.

Donovan Mitchell has played well throughout the playoffs, however I’ll be fading him in Game 1 versus the Knicks. Mitchell is averaging 25.6 in the postseason and has largely played well but this is a big line for Mitchell who is facing an elite Knicks perimeter defense. New York held Tyrese Maxey to just 18 PPG in the conference semifinals and the combination of OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges have proven to be an elite defensive tandem. This is a very tough matchup for Mitchell.

Sam Merrill went off in Game 7 against the Pistons, making five three-pointers on his way to scoring 23 points. That was his fourth straight game with at least two made three-pointers. He made 42.1% of his attempts from behind the arc during the regular season and has shot 40.4% from deep in the playoffs. With the Knicks likely putting their best defenders on Donovan Mitchell and James Harden, look for Merrill to receive enough quality looks from three to hit this over.

Karl-Anthony Towns has recorded at least six assists in each of his last seven games. Three times during that span, he finished with at least 10 assists. What’s even crazier about that stat is that he only logged 26 minutes a game during that stretch with the Knicks being involved in some lopsided scores. In what has the potential to be a close game, I like Towns to come away with at least five assists.

The Knicks won both meetings in New York this season against the Cavaliers, but the Cavs have won five of the last seven meetings and covered six of those games. The largest spread in their meetings this season has been the Knicks, favored by 5 on Christmas when they only won by two. The Cavs are healthier than they've been all season, and yet the spread is 7.5? Cleveland is fresh off a Game 7 win at Detroit two nights ago, while the Knicks have been off for 9 days. The Knicks had won seven in a row, covering six, but I think the Cavs have some demons in the closet they need to set straight from last season as the No. 1 seed.

FanDuel. One of the trends we saw in the first two rounds that I believe will carry over for the Knicks is Karl-Anthony Towns’ facilitating. Starting with Game 4 against the Hawks, Towns has seven straight games with at least six assists (let alone five). The Knicks tweaked their offense to use Towns as a hub - Towns passes per game are up in this span (36 per game compared to his average of 32), despite his minutes being down due to foul trouble and blowouts. The Cavs defense favors spot-up shooting as is, and the Knicks have now have had what’s felt like an eternity to refine the new wrinkle of their offense. Look for Towns to continue to thrive in his new role.

Since the Knicks trailed the Hawks 2-1, they have increasingly run their offense through Karl-Anthony Towns. It has worked to near-perfection, so why would they stop now? Towns has recorded six or more assists in seven straight games. Look for Towns to post at least five assists against a potentially tired Cavs team.

The Cavaliers face a quick turnaround off their second straight seven-game series. Rust could be an issue for the Knicks, but the rest definitely helped them heal up. OG Anunoby (hamstring) is practicing fully and is expected to play. New York has dominated its last seven playoff games, winning those by an average of 27.5 points, and the Game 1 atmosphere at MSG will be electric. I would play this up to 7.