FanDuel. Isaiah Hartenstein has cleared this line in all three games this series, and in all five games against the Nuggets this season. The Thunder need him on the floor defensively against Nikola Jokic, and his presence as a roll-man in the pick and roll allows the Thunder to expose the Nuggets weak interior defense (Denver ranked 27th against roll-men this season). Look for Hartenstein to bounce-back after a rough 5/14 shooting performance.

Russell Westbrook only scored eight points in Game 3. That was his first full game in the playoffs in which he didn’t score at least 14 points. Michael Porter Jr. played well, which resulted in Westbrook logging just 22 minutes. This line has dropped by three points compared to Game 3. I’m not going to overact to one disappointing stat line. I like Westbrook to bounce back and hit this over.

Isaiah Hartenstein only shot 5-for-14 from the field in Game 2. That’s rare for him, considering he shot 58.1% from the field during the regular season. Still, he finished the game with a double-double. He has recorded at least 20 combined points and rebounds in all three games against the Nuggets. Going back even further, he has at least 20 combined in five of seven playoff games. I’ll take this over again.

Aaron Gordon has elevated his game in the playoffs, especially at home. He has cleared this prop total in all but one home playoff game. With Denver playing a small rotation and Nikola Jokic attracting most of the attention, Gordon is in a great spot to continue his all-around production.

Do I think the Thunder win? Probably. But 6.5 on the road against the best player in the world, whose team leads the dang series seems awfully steep. And it's not like anyone is out injured. It would mark only the 10th time this decade that Denver is getting at least 6 at home in a regular season or playoff game (6-3 ATS in those nine) -- some books had 6 for Game 3, which the Nuggets won outright, but some closed at 5.5.

Trendlines in this matchup have been identifiable; when OKC wins, it's usually a blowout (27 ppg, counting reg season), but when Denver wins, it's close under (6 ppg). We've seen this trend already in this series with the Nuggets winning a couple of nailbiters in Games 1 & 3 while the Thunder rolled up a 43-point blowout in Game 2. As it was Denver needed some late heroics again from Aaron Gordon to force the OT in game 3, but with a thinner bench there are not as many options for the Nuggets if one of their big guns should have an off night. If liking the Thunder, don't worry about the spread...it hasn't mattered when beating Denver. Play Thunder

The model and oddsmakers favor OKC to win this game, with money line odds around -235. When OKC wins, it's typically a dominating performance, often featuring a strong +10 streak in the first quarter. Therefore, if you believe in OKC's overall victory, betting on them to cover the first quarter spread of -1.5 is more appealing given their recent history.

This just might be a zig-zag series, but even amid that trend the Thunder taking the first half remains a thing. They are super fast starters, especially on the road, and coming off a listless finish in Game 3 I anticipate a stellar first half here. OCK +6.6 on road in 1st half, best by far in NBA, and scored 61.4 in first half on road in regular season (tops) and 7th in pace - trends that have held in playoffs. Nuggets cannot get it together early at home, with Game 3 the latest example. Nuggets were 27th in first half D rating at home and just 14th in first half +/- at home. Maybe OKC can't keep it going for 48 minutes, just 24.