The Warriors, and specifically Stephen Curry, are being strangled by the Houston defense. The only way to loosen things up is for Jimmy Butler to be aggressive downhill. When he starts finishing and drawing fouls, the perimeter pressure will have to relent some. Butler knows this. It's his time. Forget every game he's played for the Warriors to this point. This is the game they got him for.

The Warriors were a -200 favorite to win this series despite coming in as the No. 7 seed with the home-court disadvantage against the No. 2-seeded Rockets. Behind the offense of Fred VanVlaeet and a rugged disposition, Houston has rebounded from a 3-1 deficit to force a Game 7 on its home floor. although the veteran-laden Warriors appear to be fading, we're going to back the playoff-proven likes of Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler to drag Golden State into the second round.

Draymond Green has not surpassed 20 combined points, rebounds and assists in any game of this series against the Rockets. He did not surpass 14 combined in any of the three games in Houston. He’s not looking to score much, averaging 6.8 shot attempts per game in this series. He is also shooting just 36.6% from the field. I’ll take this under again.

The Warriors had a 3-1 lead in the opening round playoff series against the Rockets, but now it's even at three games apiece. The Rockets have won the last two and covered the last three. The Warriors are showing their age, and the Rockets have more spring in their legs late in the game. Jimmy Butler, Steph Curry, and Draymond Green are running out of gas in the 4th quarter of the last two games. The true leader of the Rockets has been Fred VanVleet, who struggled early on in the series but has come on lately, scoring 25 points or more in the last three games. Rockets win.

Houston's younger players and deeper rotation have influenced the series, with their double-big lineup neutralizing the Warriors' offense. Golden State appears fatigued, dealing with minor injuries to key players, while Houston has maintained strong team chemistry all season. They've outscored the Warriors 639-615 through six games. My model favors Houston by five points. I like the Rockets to advance.

There are some parallel tracks in this series, one of which has the Warriors in danger of blowing what was once a 3-1 lead. Jimmy Butler is hurting, and while he did score 27 in Game 6, it was more Butler's mastery of the dark arts, as he was unable to beat anyone off of the dribble. That in turn has denied the Warriors the chance to effectively control pace and tempo in this series, harder for the Dubs with Butler hurting, and Houston is gladly pushing the pace behind Fred VanVleet. Games 5 and 6 also soared over, yet the total for tonight hasn't move noticeably. With overs on a 13-4 run as the first round closes, our preference is clear. Play Warriors-Rockets Over

DraftKings. Simply put, this is the exact situation where Jimmy Butler is going to come out swinging (hopefully not literally). He’s cleared this line in three of the four full games he’s played in, and I expect him to be on the floor for 40+ minutes once again. He’s been able to get to the free throw line at will against the bigger Rockets front line, and the Warriors will lean on him and Steph Curry once again. I’d bet this up to over 23.5 points.