The Warriors are favored by 3.5-4 depending on your book, and they can certainly cover that with Jimmy Butler back. But Houston is playing in must-win territory and Butler's return might sound better on paper than it looks on the court with that pelvic deep glute contusion. I'll take the safer play and bet a little more to not have to cover.

The Jimmy Butler effect is in play once again for game four now that he has been cleared. In game three I went the other way on the market reacting to Butler being out, and now will do so with him being cleared. As strong as Golden State’s overall record is with Butler in the lineup, Houston did go into Golden State and defeat them on April 6th. This is also the first time in the postseason Steph Curry has to step back on the court in a forty eight hour turn around, which has been troublesome for Curry during the regular season. Back the Rockets for the cover in game four.

No great surprise the Dubs circled the wagons minus Jimmy Butler to grind down the Rockets on Saturday night to re-take control of this series. Butler (hip) remains iffy for tonight, but Golden State is resourceful and can still play elite defense with Draymond Green, Gary Payton II and others. Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, and Payton also all picked up some of the scoring slack from Butler and scored double-digits in Game 3. There's also Steph, always capable of 36-point efforts like Saturday to ease the burden of the others. Meanwhile, Houston's youth and inconsistency is reflected by top scorer Jalen Green, who has sandwiched 7 and 9-point efforts around his series-high 38 points in Game 2. Play Warriors

Draymond Green has averaged just 6.3 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.7 assists over the first three games against the Rockets. He did not record more than 19 combined points, rebounds and in assists in any of the games. He’s not really looking to score, attempting a total of 22 shots in the series. He also has a total of just five free-throw attempts. Given his lack of scoring upside, I like this under.

While we only have a little over of 1 point of line value we do have a fairly high 56% chance the Warriors cover. The projection does have Jimmy Butler available. But even if Butler does not play the Warriors have been defending the paint very well and has held Houston under 50% on twos in the series. Alperen Sengun has struggled vs Draymond Green, shooting 46.8% on twos in the series (38.7% last 2 games combined). Fred VanVleet is the Rocket with championship pedigree but he is ice cold, going 6-29 from 3pt range. With the inside (Sengun) - out (VanVleet) game not working for Houston I like the Warriors to win by at least four points.

I tend to think Jimmy Butler plays tonight for the Warriors and some of the various moneylines are starting to tick up a bit, so clearly that says the books think so as well. Houston's physicality is bothering Golden State, but the Rockets can't shoot the ball -- even from the free-throw line. This series is more a learning experience for the Rockets, and I don't see the young team winning on the road if indeed Jimmy Buckets is back.

I rarely play rebounding props due to them being highly volatile but this is one I like quite a bit. First and foremost Alperen Sengun is one of the Association's best rebounders. Sengun averaged over 10 RPG in the regular season despite playing less than 32 MPG in the regular season. Sengun is playing over 35 MPG in the playoffs and I expect that number to rise in what is a must win Game 4 for Houston. I’d play this at 11.5 for a half unit.

After scoring 38 points in Game 2, Jalen Green scored just nine points in Game 3. However, he did record six rebounds and five assists. He has posted at least 10 combined rebounds and assists in all three games of this series against the Warriors. During the regular season, he averaged 4.6 rebounds and 3.4 assists over 33 minutes per game. He is averaging 35 minutes per game in this series, and as one of the best scoring options on the Rockets, he should continue to play a lot in Game 4. The over is the way to go here.

Unders have cooled a bit in the the NBA first-round the past few days, prevailing in just one of four on Sunday. Nonetheless, this series is working on three consecutive unders as the slower pace hasn't deviated, with not many transition buckets. Jimmy Butler's absence in Game 3, and potential absence in tonight's Game 4 due to his hip injury, is another factor to consider on the Golden State side, but the Dubs are nonetheless dictating the tempo of this series to their liking. The Rockets' offense is too often misfiring, partly because that's what top scorer Jalen Green (who has sandwiched 7 and 9-point efforts around his 38 points in Game 2) has been doing. Play Rockets-Warriors Under

We are banking on Jimmy Butler being back. He is the connective tissue that makes this offense hum, and keys the spacing game with drive and dish. Steph had to pick a lot of that up with Butler out and had 18 assists the past 2 games. The Warriors have a chance to go for the throat at home and I expect Steph to launch 15 of these bad boys if need be. Steve Kerr is a master tactician and this series has gone long enough for him to figure out ways to put his key guys in position to succeed. Steph will have fresher legs off the ball more with Butler back.