The Braves looked very good at home, but this is their first road game and the D-backs have been feisty so far. They led the Dodgers in all three games and then swept the Tigers, including a comeback from down four runs in the eighth and beating Tarik Skubal. I like the D-backs home vibes right now.

The Diamondbacks have beaten the Braves four straight times, the last meeting in June, and they just came off a sweep of the Tigers. After starting the year 0-3, they're now 3-3, and Ryne Nelson is on the mound, and he's an attractive underdog. He's facing Reynaldo Lopez, who won his last start against the Royals as a $1.44 favorite. Nelson lost to the Dodgers in his first start. Arizona to win.

The Braves enter the series without an off-day so they could use a bit of bullpen relief from Reynaldo Lopez. He went six very strong in his season debut to beat Kansas City after a solid spring. Managers will generally go out of their way to allow their starting pitchers -- if not openers -- to get a W as long as not getting shelled. Not many Dbacks have faced Lopez career. Our model his him at 5.8 innings -- all of our other books have 15.5 outs recorded.