The Pirates have won six of Bailey Falter's last eight starts. In that same span, he's allowed one or zero runs six times. Casey Mize (2.95 ERA) also figures to excel against the light-hitting Pirates, but in a projected low-scoring game I bet the Bucs on the run line. They've gone 10 straight games without losing by more than one run.

DraftKings. Casey Mize has helped to solidify the Tigers rotation behind ace Tarik Skubal this season. Pitching to a 2.95 ERA, the righty has started to fulfill the promise he showed as the first overall draft pick in 2018. That being said, given his lengthy injury history, the first-place Tigers are not looking to push Mize innings-wise, to keep him fresh for the stretch run. Mize is under this line in seven of eleven starts this season, averaging out at 85 pitches per start. While the Pirates aren’t a powerhouse offense, they are patient, with the second lowest chase rate. And likely to start six right handed bats, the Pirates to play into Mize’s worse split (.811 OPS allowed).

Casey Mize is top six in MLB with a 1.35 ERA in the first 5 IP of home games. The Tigers mash lefties and Bailey Falter gives up way too many fly balls, and doesn't get any swing and miss. This Pirates lineup is tepid. Detroit is top six in OPS vs LHP at home with a formidable .273/.345/.453 slash line.