Really not sure what to think of Braves rookie pitcher Spencer Schwellenbach but he has back-to-back quality starts. But this only popped on my radar as the Cards are without both Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. Neither are what they used to be but still clearly the two biggest offensive threats STL has.

Atlanta is 8-2 SU in their last 10 games. Lance Lynn has allowed 12 runs in his last 13.2 innings. The Braves are off a tough, winning, series against New York and their offense has been starting to get back on track. The Cardinals have been hitting .291 with a .836 OPS over their last seven days. Spencer Schwellenbach owns a 6.75 road ERA and is off two quality starts but doesn’t get much run support. The obvious play is the over with these two pitchers ERA’s, but Atlanta has been one of the better under teams thus far.

The Braves have won eight of their last 10 and looked super impressive in beating the Yankees two out of three. They're no longer sobbing about not having Strider or Acuna, they're just playing ball and taking care of who's in front of them which is the complete opposite of how they played when those two went out. They're now 43- 32 and 19-19 on the road. The Braves sent out Spencer Swellenbach who got a victory his last time out against Detroit allowing one run and three hits in six innings. He'll face Lance Lynn who has given up a lot lately in his last four he's allowed 17 runs. Braves to win.

This is a terrific spot for Austin Riley to get back on track. He has gone over 1.5 total bases in six of his last ten games despite having two straight sub-par performances. Austin has a hard-hit rate of 50% (91st percentile), and his bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. He is 3-for-6 with a home run and 1.500 OPS in his career against Lance Lynn. The veteran pitcher has an ERA of 6.11 in June.

Lance Lynn had a nice stretch of games in late May, but the 37 year old has been touched up over his last three starts against teams that aren't exactly crushing the ball (Marlins, Pirates, Rockies). I expect this trend to continue against the Braves who have been getting hotter against righties as of late. As for the Braves pitcher, Spencer Schwellenbach, he's only had a handful of starts and while it started off poorly, his last two starts have been very solid as he's been limiting hits, walks and earned runs.

A lot would need to go right here for Lance Lynn to get over this number and go a full six innings. If he does, I will tip my cap to him and keep it moving but I feel this should be 16.5 at most against the Braves.