An angle that has been profitable is to play against a team that played Sunday night, and is traveling for Monday’s new series. Here I’ll bypass that angle as the Padres have not stepped foot out of the state of California in their past five series. They have hosted three home series and went on the road against the Giants and Dodgers. Milwaukee has been feast or famine as well, as their last five wins they have scored seven runs or more. Look for Musgrove to settle in today and the Padres to get the win.

It's been a rough start to the year for Joe Musgrove, who has one of the worst xERAs in baseball at 8.40, among other troubling metrics. He has to face a Milwaukee offense that has let just one pitcher finish the sixth inning in the last six games, and that was after hanging seven runs (six earned) on Hunter Greene's arm and forcing him to throw 105 pitches. With the Brewers averaging 6.5 runs per game and Musgrove looking ineffective in three home starts (where he pitched better in 2023), I don't see him making it the full six innings today.

Getting to seven strikeouts has not been an easy task for Joe Musgrove this year. While some of the underlying stats point to regression, Musgrove still doesn't have my trust to go over 6.5 strikeouts yet. He's failed to reach seven strikeouts in 3/4 starts and even when Musgrove did go over this line, he ended with seven strikeouts in six innings of work. Now he faces a Milwaukee offense that's ranked second vs right handers in OPS and 22nd in strikeout rate.

This is just a huge number for Musgrove who has only really looked good in one of his four appearances this season. He will face a red hot Brewers lineup that is 2nd in OPS vs opposing righties this season, in addition to possessing the tenth lowest K rate.

Joe Musgrove's exit velocity is up 2.5 mph from last year with a .350 xBA and .430 xwOBA that rank in the bottom 4% of the league. The Brewers are a bit underrated, as they entered the season projected to place fourth in the division, but their offense vs. RHP ranks second in the Majors with .381 wOBA and 135 wRC+.

The automatic fade of a team traveling off playing on Sunday night didn't work last week but history tells us it will be profitable in the long run. Definitely a tough spot for the Padres with a long late-night flight from Los Angeles. Supposed ace Joe Musgrove has been awful in three of four outings and has a 6.87 ERA.