Baltimore is a Top 10 offense against lefties with a .339 wOBA and 124 wRC+. The market probably underrates the Orioles in this spot, and understandably so, because Albert Suarez is back in the Majors for the first time since 2017. In last week's start vs. Minnesota, he allowed three hits and no walks while striking out four in 5.2 scoreless innings.

Jonathan Cannon makes his second MLB start. In his debut last week, the 6-foot-6 23-year-old held a Top 10 Royals offense to one run on three hits. Chris Paddock has been beat up this season with a 8.98 xERA and .443 xwOBA. Granted, the damage has come against the Dodgers, Orioles and Brewers, who are all Top 4 teams against RHP, and this is... the White Sox. But we're going to keep these two basement-dwelling offenses out of it and target the starters in the F5.

Between two great offenses, ATL has the edge here with its pitching advantage. Reynaldo Lopez has started his Braves career with two quality starts in two appearances. He's improved his sequencing and is mixing in a curveball more often. The Stros' Hunter Brown made MLB history for the wrong reason in his last outing, giving up nine earned runs on 11 hits in less than 1 IP.

Ryan Weathers has limited the damage in his three starts, but his 6.91 xERA and 5.46 xFIP say more negative regression is coming. He's been barreled up at a 9.2% rate with a 93 mph exit velo. The problem is his FB is not good and he throws it more than 50% of the time. The Giants are a Top-10 offense against LHP with a low 17% K rate. Jordan Hicks rates among the top 10% of starters this season after dropping the velo but adding more horizontal movement to his sinker.

Joe Musgrove's exit velocity is up 2.5 mph from last year with a .350 xBA and .430 xwOBA that rank in the bottom 4% of the league. The Brewers are a bit underrated, as they entered the season projected to place fourth in the division, but their offense vs. RHP ranks second in the Majors with .381 wOBA and 135 wRC+.

Chris Bassitt's exit velo is up nearly 3 mph from last year. He's struggled with his control to start the season with a walk rate up to 12%. New York is still trying to figure out what it has with Luis Gil, who missed most of the last two seasons after TJ. But since 2022, he's reshaped his physique and quadrupled the usage on his changeup -- his best pitch. His .102 xSLG and .224 xwOBA in two starts rank among the top 9% of pitchers. With the Yankees offense, it's enough for me to back NYY in a coin flip game.

Kutter Crawford is in the top 8% of starters with a .135 xBA, .199 xSLG and .199 wOBA. His best pitch last year was the sweeper he debuted in June, and in 2024 he's upped its usage from 6.7% to 35%. It's an early start time at 11:10 am ET, but Boston gets to sleep at home tonight, while Cleveland has to travel after an extra-innings game.

Shota Imanaga is one of my favorite pitchers. He was one of my pre-season longshots to win Cy Young. He throws a splitter with a 68.4% whiff rate. While his expected metrics imply he's gotten a little bit lucky -- likely because he's new to the MLB -- they are still above-average numbers. His .103 wOBA after throwing 10 shutout innings is in the top 1% of the league.

Minny has the pitching advantage in both the starter and bullpen. The underlying metrics on Joe Ryan's FB worry me, but his splitter and sweeper look great and his 37.7% chase rate is excellent. He's allowed just one walk while striking out 12 in two starts. Kenta Maeda, on the other hand, is riding the struggle bus. Against the White Sox and Athletics, he's allowed a combined 9 runs and 5 walks, with only 5 strikeouts. His 8.07 xERA and .424 xwOBA are in the bottom 6% of the league.

The Royals have quietly snuck into the Top 10 in every meaningful hitting metric, while striking out at the fifth-lowest rate against RHP. The Stros were well-known for their prowess against lefties last season, but hadn't seen the same success until hanging 6 runs on Andrew Heaney tonight. Still, they rank as a below-average team vs LHP this season. As for pitching, there's not enough space here to explain how much I like KC's Cole Ragan (he was my favorite pre-season Cy Young pick), and he just threw 6.1 scoreless innings with 7 K vs. Baltimore. Cristian Javier is solid on the other side, but Royals are underrated in this spot and coming off a rest day.

Phillies should be priced -120, giving us a 6.7% edge. They're facing a positive park shift moving from DC to STL. They're also facing Miles Mikolas, who's coming off the worst season of his 8-year career in terms of launch angle allowed, barrel rate and wOBA, plus his lowest K rate (15.9%).

Bailey Ober is coming off his worst career start, but it's the metrics from his previous three seasons that are a concern. His season barrel rate has never been below 9.5%, and his average launch angle against (19.5-20 degrees) is ideal for a well-hit ball. That is a problem against a powerful Dodgers lineup. He may also be a little out of routine, as his scheduled start for Sunday was postponed. For a better price bet the Dodgers TT o4.5 runs (-111).

Alec Bohm's splits are significantly better against southpaws with a .376 wOBA vs LHP compared to .295 vs RHP, and a 138 wRC+ vs LHP compared to 88 vs RHP. He also strikes out less (16%) and walks more. MacKenzie Gore hasn't lived up to expectations in his three seasons in the Majors. His main problem is his fastball, which he throws 50% of the time. It had a .518 xSLG last season.

Models project this spread closer to 9. Alabama thrives on tempo, ranking 13th in country with 72.6 possessions per 40 min. UConn ranks 316th with 65 possessions per. Alabama's scoring from distance has only gotten better during the tournament -- the Tide are shooting 41.4% from 3 in their last four games. Between the pace and the elite scoring ability, the points are hard to pass up.

Seattle gets a positive park shift moving from T-Mobile Park to a dome. Logan Gilbert has added a cutter and fine-tuned his curveball, so he doesn’t have to rely on his fastball as much. The FB usage is already down 10% from last year.