Atlético Madrid should be too strong for Girona in this game. Los Rojiblancos have won 14 of their 18 home matches this season, which is an impressive record. Manager Diego Simeone should play his strongest starting XI for this game, as Atlético aren't in any cup competitions, so there's no need to rest players. Girona have slipped down to 15th in La Liga after a six-game winless streak, and they tend to struggle on the road. They've only won three away games all season, so they could be overpowered at the Metropolitano.
To my eye, Atleti has absolutely nothing to play for at this point locked into European football next season, while Osasuna can perhaps finish Top 8 in La Liga or even still be relegated. Los Rojillos have been excellent at home, and their only loss there in the past 11 was to league champion Barcelona. Atleti, meanwhile, has a long list of guys ruled out led by Julian Alvarez and Guiliano Simeone.
I’m backing Rayo Vallecano here, more as a fade of Girona than anything else. First and foremost, I don’t think Girona will be physical enough to match Rayo away from home. Even in the reverse fixture, Rayo dominated them physically. Rayo have now gone five unbeaten and have lost just twice at home all season. Girona, meanwhile, are on a three-game slide, and things aren’t going to get better. I’ll take Rayo draw no bet here, just in case Girona grind out a point.
If you want the most value, bet Barcelona to win and both teams to score. The last time an El Clásico didn’t see both teams score was back in 2024. Real Madrid are also as banged up as they have been in quite some time, with Mbappe, Valverde, Rodrygo, Militao, Carvajal, Mendy and Güler all unavailable. Barcelona will be without Lamine Yamal, but the rest of the squad is available. I like goals here. There have been at least four goals in seven of the last nine meetings between these two, and with Madrid missing so many key pieces defensively and in transition, Barcelona should have every chance to win this match while still conceding.
Seems like something is going on at Real Madrid ahead of a Clásico in which Barca clinches the La Liga title with a victory or draw (DNB is way too pricy). Madrid saw midfielders Aurélien Tchouaméni and Federico Valverde (he's out because of it) get into a practice fight -- we talking about "practice" -- and each was fined nearly $600,000. That's pretty crazy and makes me wish I played soccer more as a kid to make that kind of bank. Half the roster is practically out today led by Kylian Mbappe. He's fit enough to party on his yacht but not play apparently. Mbappe leads the league with 24 goals.
Both teams to score is my favorite parlay anchor of the day in this match. It has hit in 76% of Betis away matches and 76% of Sociedad home matches. The over 2.5 is just as nice. At least three goals have been scored in 71% of Sociedad home matches, while Betis away matches have cleared that number 47% of the time. Neither team defends particularly well, and this should have the feel of an end-to-end contest with Sociedad needing a win and Betis trying to hold on to a European place. Betis are the better side and could easily score first, which would open this match up even more. That should give us stretched defenses, space in transition, and plenty of counterattacking opportunities.
I went and looked at fading Atletico Madrid on Saturday after that gut-punch loss to Arsenal in the UCL semis, but Atleti is home against a lesser foe, so I can't pull that trigger. That's what got me to the La Liga menu in the first place. And then saw this and I'm like yep. These two are fighting not to be relegated, so not a lack of motivation (unlike Atleti). Elche did lose the reverse fixture 3-1 on the road back in October -- scoreless entering the 75th minute -- but has been one of the better home teams in the league (31 points in 17 matches). Alaves has three road wins all season.
This is a must-win game for Real Madrid. If Los Blancos fail to beat Espanyol, the Spanish league title will go to Barcelona. That means the Real Madrid players will be highly motivated for this game. Recent results have been poor, but they should still get the better of this struggling Espanyol team. Espanyol are winless in their last eight games, and Real Madrid's elite forwards could tear them apart.
Barcelona could potentially clinch the league title if they beat Osasuna this weekend. The Blaugrana are on a nine-game winning streak in La Liga, so the players should be full of confidence. They're 11 points clear of Real Madrid at the top of the table, with just five games remaining. If they beat Osasuna and Real Madrid fail to win their game, Barcelona will be crowned champions. Osasuna are having a good season, but they could be outclassed by this in-form Barcelona team.
I have a hard time believing Atlético Madrid will put in any real effort in this match. They’ve already secured Champions League football for next season and have a crucial UCL semi-final coming up midweek. The expectation is that Simeone will rotate his squad. Atleti haven’t taken La Liga seriously of late, winning just one of their last five matches (1-0-4).
I went and looked at all four Champions League semifinalists today because it's just Trap City you'd think. I couldn't justify fading Bayern Munich, Arsenal (still playing for a domestic title) or PSG, but this I sure can. Clearly the books agree with me as in normal circumstances, Atleti would not be a dog. But why they would play anyone of note ahead of the second-leg UCL match vs. Arsenal on Tuesday is beyond me. Really no domestic reasons that I can see.
Like most money lines not part of a parlay, I set my limit on here at about -200 -- I'll stretch a bit for DNB because I consider that is two bets in a way. I wasn't expecting this to dip under -200, but it has so I'll take it. "M-m-m-my" Girona is three points better in the La Liga table. Mallorca has lost the past two in the series, including 2-1 in the reverse in early January. Needless to say, I have known about DNB as long as been a bettor, but I feel like my life would have changed if someone had told me this thing existed when I was a pup. I could spin off DNB into several life decisions.
Espanyol on paper are the much better club between these two as they currently sit five places above Levante on the table, however, form here is wild. Espanyol have been falling apart in recent months. They haven't won a match in their last 15 consecutive matches in LaLiga. Meanwhile, Levante are coming off of back-to-back wins in LaLiga play, as the team desperately tries to avoid relegation. I'm backing the team with their backs against the wall in good form, over the team who hasn't won since December of last year.
Can already hear the "there goes Mr. Moneyline favorite again" jokes and that's fine. But I don't consider this part of that because I get to avoid a draw loss, and this is being a defensive bettor -- i.e. don't lose. Also think at least 50 cents too low. Would not play this ML straight up (-105). I won't say DNB is priceless but close. I'd start playing that in hockey too if we had it. Seriously have a mental block when it comes to OT (can't do much about stoppage time) because I simply never win so try to avoid it. May need to speak to someone about it. No one answered at 1-800-overtime. 867-5309 was a busy signal (remember busy signals?).
Barcelona should be able to extend their winning streak to nine league games when they face Getafe this weekend. The Blaugrana are now 8 points clear of Real Madrid at the top of the table, with a game in hand. They're surging with confidence, and they should have too much firepower for Getafe to handle. Star player Lamine Yamal is injured, but the likes of Fermin Lopez, Dani Olmo, Ferran Torres and Marcus Rashford should still fire their team to victory. Barça have the best away record in the league this season, while Getafe have already lost six home games. They're in excellent form right now, but they haven't beaten Barcelona since 2020.