The LaLiga relegation race is absolutely insane this season. From 19th on the table to 13th on the table there are only four teams separating these teams. That means that there are multiple teams that could still find themselves being relegated. The only team that is guaranteed at the moment is Real Oviedo. This Elche is the match everyone will be watching. If Elche can win, they are safe. If Elche can get the draw, they are safe unless Mallorca can beat Real Oviedo by 5+ goals. While Girona also need the win here, their form ahs just been so poor in recent weeks, and in a battle of who is slightly less worse, I'm going with Elche to get a point off this match.
Espanyol on paper are the much better club between these two as they currently sit five places above Levante on the table, however, form here is wild. Espanyol have been falling apart in recent months. They haven't won a match in their last 15 consecutive matches in LaLiga. Meanwhile, Levante are coming off of back-to-back wins in LaLiga play, as the team desperately tries to avoid relegation. I'm backing the team with their backs against the wall in good form, over the team who hasn't won since December of last year.
This is an absolutely brutal game to try to call. On one hand, you have an Atletico Madrid side who have played 15 home matches this season, and have only lost a single time in LaLiga play. On the other hand, you have the most dominate team in all of Spain. On the magical third hand, we have some significantly new injuries for this Barcelona side. Barcelona saw Raphina pick up an injury in an International friendly. this is a massive blow to the squad, and I expect them to play things slower, and prep for upcoming UCL matches. I have this match ending in a high scoring, 2-2 draw.
I already talked about how Real Madrid are expected to rotate in this match, and how I don't fully expect that to change the outcome of this match, but I also don't expect it to change the amount of goals we'll see. Mallorca's defense isn't good enough to stop Real Madrid from scoring. This over has hit in five straight from Madrid, and in eight in their last 10. I expect Madrid to score at least two goals here, and are possible of covering this over entirely by themselves.
I know that Real Madrid have to worry about Bayern Munich coming up just a few days after this match, but here's the thing. I believe that even if Real Madrid rotate heavily, and I'm talking rotate 5-7 of their starting XI, they will still win this matchup against a Mallorca side who is floundering in the relegation zone. Madrid can't afford to let up with the title race against Barcelona being so close, and they have the depth to get a big and important three points.
Celta Vigo's successful season continues as the team presses for a big European finish. The club is currently six on the table and are just three points away from grabbing a spot next season in Europa League. Their combination of a brutal front line mixed with a better than average defense has made them brutal to face. Valencia is turning things around, but they're still going to struggle defensively against this Celta squad.
Real Sociedad continue to be one of my favorite clubs in all of Spain to bet on. This team is sitting seventh on the table just three points outside of a European qualifying spot, which means they still care a whole lot about their upcoming matches. They are consistently giving us shootouts finding goals on both ends of the pitch. With 44 goals scored and 45 conceded, fireworks show up every time they take the pitch. Levante is struggling this season facing relegation, which means they also are motivated to find goals. Give me a 3-1 win for Real Sociedad.
Rayo Vallecano is a team in Spain that is capable of keeping things cagey and close. They've only scored 28 times this season while only conceded 35, so people will be keen to bet the under. However, Elche loves bringing out the worst in their opponents and are desperate for goals to avoid relegation. Both teams have scored in 13 of Elche's last 14 matches, with the over hitting in six straight. Expect more of the same for an Elche side pressing for points.
Villarreal continue to be one of the more complicated teams to get reads on in LaLiga play. The team looked unbeatable for the first 18 matchdays, then fell apart for a couple months, and no appear to be back in action as they fight for a UCL finish. While Villarreal is finding their form again and have won three of their last five, Alaves are in a free fall. They're now 16th on the table after failing to win any of their last six matches, and are just two points ahead of the relegation zone. Alaves have upcoming matches they can win, this is not one of them.
I believe that this line will close around -200. We're getting a good line right now because Real Madrid do have a UCL fixture before this match that is going to take some of their energy and test the limits of their players as they play Benfica. The reason I'm still taking this is due to Espanyol's brutal form right now. They played so well for so long but have seemingly hit their limit. They've lost four of their last five, and drew the fifth. I think even if Real Madrid rotate, needing points in the title race, they'll win.
Rayo Vallecano have had a rough go of it this season as they are barely treading water above the relegation zone right now. While they haven't been great, they just beat Atletico Madrid 3-0 entering this matchday and looked leagues above them somehow. That little bit of confidence, combined with with a desperate need for points means they'll be pressing. Real Betis are one of the best attacks in LaLiga, and I'm expecting BTTS and the over to hit once more.
Real Sociedad were on an incredible unbeaten run that finally came to an end against Real Madrid. Real Madrid beat them 4-1, but even with a scoreline like that, Sociedad didn't really look all that bad. They should look to bounceback right away against a Real Oviedo side who have the most losses in LaLiga. They also have the least amount of points, and the fewest goals scored. Expect a big bounce back win for the hosts.
This line doesn't make a lot of sense to me if I'm being completely honest. Elche's last five matches have all gone over 2.5 goals, with three of those matches going over 3.5 as well. They've also seen BTTS hit in their last seven matches. Osasuna has been similar, with over 2.5 goals and BTTS hitting in their last five matches straight. I see no reason to bet against the recent form for both clubs.
When looking for a match to bet on overs, I always try to find an underdog who is good at scoring goals. I don't expect Elche to win this match, but I don't need them to win, I just need to them to do what they've done for the last couple months and that's find the back of the net. Sociedad are in tremendous form and should score a couple here, but Elche is losing and scoring for fun right now. They're coming off a 3-1 loss to Barca, a 3-2 loss to Levante and a 2-2 draw to Sevilla. Take the over.
Mallorca is a very tricky team to wager on. They tend to be much better at home than on the road, and teams tend to struggle in their stadium. They also normally tend to be a bit of a cagey side, but that hasn't been the case in the most recent weeks. The last four teams to travel to Mallorca were Athletic Club, Girona, Elche and Osasuna. All four of those matches saw not only the over 2.5 goals hit, but BTTS hit as well. If you don't like betting on overs, take BTTS instead!
