Micah's Picks (1 Live)
Micah's Past Picks
The Royals have won seven straight, including the last two against Houston, which they won 2-0, making it four straight unders for the Royals and under in 18 games on the year. Houston likes to stay under at 8-16 on the year, and they have their best pitcher going in Hunter Brown, who hasn't allowed a run in his last three starts. Neither team figures to have an offense roaring with the Astros averaging 3.5 runs scored a game and the Royals at 3.1. I'm on the under on this game.
The Rays have won three in a row while the Padres have lost three of their last four which is normally a situation you want to bet the team that's on the winning streak, but Dylan Cease is pitching for the Padres who won four of his five starts this year and I like him to win again today. Ryan Pepiot has had issues in his last two starts, allowing nine combined runs in 12 innings of work. The Padres bats have fallen to .260 as a team, but I like their winning ways to continue at home, where they're 12-2. Padres to win.
Coors Field is going to be 53° tonight with the wind blowing in at 10 miles an hour, but the real story is that the Rockies only have four wins and 20 losses this season. They just got swept four games at Kansas City while the Reds have lost five of their last eight. However, the Reds have won nine of the last 10 games against the Rockies. I like the Reds today because of Andrew Abbott, who had two stellar outings to start his year, allowing one run in each. The Rockies have lost all five of Kyle Freeland's starts, and that's not going to last all year, but I'm going with the trend here. Reds to win.
It'll be 65° at Yankee Stadium with no chance of rain and 11-mile-an-hour winds from right to left field, and the over has been a good play in this series, hitting eight out of the last nine times. Jose Berrios hasn't hit his mark this year, allowing 15 runs in his four starts. Carlos Carrasco has allowed three runs or more in three of his four starts. These starters are a great starting point in an over equation. The Blue Jays have been an under team all season, but the Yankees bring something out of them. The Yankees have gone over 12 games on the season, scoring 5.5 runs per game and allowing 4.2 runs for a total of 9.7. Just the over.
Taijuan Walker has been surprisingly good for the Phillies to start the year, with the Phillies winning three of his four starts and allowing just one run. In his other start, he allowed four runs in five innings in a loss to the Giants. But he's everything that you ask for in a lower-tiered starter nowadays. Colin Rea has been very good, but limited in his two starts. The Phillies problem is that they have a four-game losing streak that includes being swept at New York. They must reset their minds and focus on the upstart Cubs now. The Cubs won four of their last five. Phillies to win.
The Diamondbacks average over 10 runs a game and have scored 131 runs on the season, which you might think would be a great mark for an over team, but they're only 10-10-4 to the over the season, meaning they're just as likely to go under as over. What aided my decision today was the starting pitcher, Drew Rasmussen for the Rays, who has allowed only two runs in four starts and has stayed under in three of his starts. Corbin Burnes has gone over three times, but he had his best start in his last outing, even though it went over, he allowed two runs in six innings to the Cubs in a 13-11 game. I'm on the under here.
The Rays had won five straight over the Diamondbacks until last night, when the Diamondbacks won 5-1, leaving the Rays 0-4 on the road this year. I'm looking at the total going over with today's starters, Taj Bradley for the Rays and Eduardo Rodriguez for the Diamondbacks, because both bend but don't break. Rodriguez has given up at least three runs in each of his four starts, and all four of Bradley's starts have gone over the total. We can get an early head start with these pitchers with runs on the board and then let the bullpen take care of everything else. The Diamondbacks and their opponents score 10 runs a game. Just the over.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have lost to the Tampa Bay Rays five straight times, but that was last two years, and this year's Rays have lost five of their last six games and have a 9-13 record. They also have a starter in Zack Littell, who the Rays have lost all four starts behind this season, with two of them being his fault, allowing 12 runs combined. Brandon Pfaadt has been incredible in his last two starts, and Arizona has won his last three starts. He's only allowed one run combined between his last two starts. Diamondbacks to win.
Last night's opener in the Blue Jays-Astros series was 7-0 Astros, which stayed under the total, making that 12 unders for the Astros and 14 unders for the Blue Jays. We got a great spot tonight where the under looks like the play with the Blue Jays averaging 3.7 runs per game and the Astros averaging 3.8. We also got a pitcher in Chris Bassitt that has allowed only two runs in his four starts, and all four stayed under. Under is the play.
The Astros have beaten the Blue Jays five out of the last six games, including last night in the first of three in the series. I bet the Blue Jays in this game because I think I have an edge in the pitching matchup with Chris Bassitt pitching against Ronel Blanco. Bassitt has been fantastic in all four starts, allowing only two runs, and in his last game, he struck out 10 in five innings. Blanco has allowed an average of three runs in each of his four starts. Blanco has gone over three of his four starts, while Bassitt has stayed under all four starts. Toronto gets the win.
The Houston Astros almost got the sweep over the San Diego Padres over the weekend, losing 3-2 on Sunday, and now they get the Toronto Blue Jays, who are 12-10 on the season. Today, I get Hunter Brown on the mound, who is pitching like one of the best in baseball, with no runs allowed in his last two games, and this will be the first time at home since March 28th when he faced the Mets. The Astros have won four of the past five meetings with the Blue Jays. Astros to win.
It will be 52° with 11 mph winds blowing out to left field at Citi Field today for the Phillies-Mets game. The Mets are 9-1 at home this season and come off a four-game sweep of the Cardinals. They’ve also won five of the last six meetings with the Phillies. The Mets have lost Taylor McGill's last two starts, but the real reason I bet this game was because of the ineffectiveness of Aaron Nola, who the Phillies have lost all four of his 2025 starts, including his last one against the Giants when he gave up seven runs. I'm on the Mets today.
The Astros go for the sweep today against the Padres with Framber Valdez on the mound. They're 6-5 at home and 10-10 all together, but the sweep likely doesn't occur because of Dylan Cease. Valdez gave up seven runs in his last start against St. Louis and allowed 10 hits in four innings of work. The Padres are 15-6 this season but only 3-5 on the road. They need to fix that road record tonight, and the number one bats (.275) in MLB take care of business. Padres to win.
The Pistons are 7-point dogs at the Knicks in Madison Square Garden for game one, even though the Pistons have won the last three meetings, including two of them at MSG. That's too much to give to a team that's loaded with confidence, knowing they can beat this Knicks team because they have been doing it. For the Pistons to win again, they will have to pressure the Knicks with a scoring blitz, which means Cade Cunningham shooting lights out for the Pistons. He's the key. The future is now for him in the NBA. In the game played on April 10th at Detroit, the Knicks shot 47% from the field and 32% from three-point range and still lost 115-106. I like the Pistons.