Maiava starts his third year at QB for USC....

The Tigers are 56-59 on the season in a very winnable AL Central, only 3.5 games behind the leader. They traded Tarik Skubal away, but they're very much alive for a postseason berth with what they have. The Giants are lost, sitting at 48-67, and they just had a yard sale of their best players. They can't wait for the season to end. The Tigers have won the last four meetings. Keider Montero gets the start, taking over full-time for Skubal in the rotation. So far on their West Coast road trip, the Tigers have gone 5-1, and in the last three games at Seattle, Dillon Dingler hit a home run in all three games, going 7-for-14 with six RBIs. Tigers to win.

Drew Rasmussen is pitching his absolute best on the season, winning his last three games and allowing only two combined runs between them. His last two were his best as the Rays won 1-0 against the White Sox and 1-0 against Cleveland. But those two shutouts were at home, where Tampa Bay has the best record in baseball (41-18). On the road, it's a different story as they sit 27-28. Seattle is the same way with a 33-26 record at home and 23-34 on the road. The Rays have won five of the last six meetings. Final note: the Mariners are tied for last in hitting at .230 on the season. I like the Rays to win.

I like the Red Sox to beat the White Sox today to win their eighth straight game and sweep the series. It's not only because the Red Sox have been the best team in baseball for the last 2 months, but it's also because Luis Castillo makes his debut for Chicago. The Mariners only won seven of his 20 appearances, and he only got credit for three winning decisions. It's been the worst year of his career for Castillo, with his ERA 1.50 higher than any previous season and fewer strikeouts than innings pitched for the first time since 2018. They even sent him to the bullpen, and he recorded one blown save. I think he's at the end of the road. Red Sox.

The Dodgers have lost five straight games heading into today's getaway game, and then they travel to Arizona to face the Diamondbacks for three games over the weekend. Rough times for the two-time defending world champ. I don't know if they'll win today, but something that looks good is betting the over at Wrigley Field, where it's supposed to be 76° with the wind blowing out to left field at 9 mph and an 18% chance of rain. I like for both teams to score over five runs. Just the over.

Eduardo Rodriguez’s best year of his career was 2019 with Boston, when he went 19-6 with a 3.81 ERA. But in his 11th season, he's having his best year yet with the Diamondbacks at 10-3 and a 2.48 ERA. In the last two seasons, he posted ERA’s over 5.00. But he found the fountain of youth in 2026. In 22 starts this year, the Diamondbacks have won 17 of them. The problem today is he's got to face the Padres, who hit him hard last year, beating him twice while giving up nine runs off five homers in 10 innings. The new Eduardo Rodriguez shows up to stop the Padres this time. Arizona to win.

Freddy Peralta was considered one of the best pitchers in the National League in his eight seasons at Milwaukee, and then this year he went to the Mets. He looked lost all season except for one stretch. On May 6th, Peralta started at Colorado and allowed no runs in five innings, grabbing the win and starting a run of Mets wins in five of his next six games. And that's it. Everything before and after was disastrous, so at the trade deadline, he got sent to Tampa Bay, and I think it's going to work out. He'll have confidence after having a great outing at Colorado this year. A new setting and scenery are the best things for Peralta. Tampa Bay to win.

The Pirates have won the last four meetings against the Brewers and six of the last seven this season, which changes an almost two-decade dominance by the Brewers. The Pirates won last night's meeting, 4-3, but they've lost five of their last seven games, the last five of which were on the road. This is a spot where I think both teams will help get over the low total after combining for 10.09 runs scored per game. The Pirates are the best over team in baseball, getting there 64 times or 57.7% of their games. Jared Jones has stayed under in his last five starts, but I think the bullpens will help each team get this game over.

The Diamondbacks went into the final weekend of the last two seasons alive for the playoffs, and in both seasons the Padres eliminated them. In 2024, the Diamondbacks were the highest-scoring team in baseball, and the Padres took them out in Arizona; last year they were taken out on the last weekend in San Diego. So far this year, they're 3-3 against the Padres, who are heating up of late, having won eight of their last nine games, and sit only one game behind the Diamondbacks. But Arizona has a new and improved Brandon Pfaadt, who beat the Padres 8-0 on July 6th. Arizona has won his first six starts since a brief stay in the minors. Arizona gets the win.

The Astros beat the Blue Jays two games to one in late June, and in the second game they defeated Shane Bieber 9-7. He allowed four runs off nine hits in 3.2 innings in that game. Bieber comes off a rough outing at Washington, where he allowed four runs off of six walks and a hit and didn't make it out of the first inning of an 8-6 loss. Now he faces the Astros again, who have won six straight and 11 of their last 12 ball games. The hope is that the streak is more powerful than Cristian Javier in his fifth start, who has struggled in three of his starts. Astros to win.

The Nationals have lost their last five games, and they've stayed under the total in four of them to move down to the fourth-best over team in baseball, hitting the over 56.5% of the time. The Nationals may have surrendered their chances for the playoffs this year by making a pair of trades the last 2 weeks, the most notable being Luis Garcia Jr to the Yankees on Sunday. But I think the Nationals lineup thrives against Aaron Nola, who the Phillies have lost his last six starts. Andrew Alvarez will also allow a few runs to the Phillies. It's a good pitching mix for the over.

The Red Sox have gone 25-5 since June 25th and have vaulted themselves into playoff contention. They have a four-game lead as the second wild-card contender and currently sit 59-51. They currently have a four-game win streak and go for the sweep tonight in Los Angeles against the World Champion Dodgers. The Red Sox have shown the Dodgers a sample of all their strengths, beginning with their pitching that only allows 3.73 runs per game, which is the same amount the Dodgers allow. Rookie left-hander Jake Bennett (2.74 ERA) starts tonight after losing at Sacramento against the Athletics, stopping a five-game win streak he had. He goes against Emmett Sheehan of the Dodgers, who have lost his last four starts. Red Sox to win.

You got a ride a hot team, and there's no hotter team than the Houston Astros, who have won nine of their last 10 games and are now in first place at 56-55. The Astros were once 11 games under .500 on May 20th. The Rangers have lost three games in a row to fall right at .500 and a half game out of first. Jacob deGrom goes for the Rangers, but they've lost his last two games. Ronel Blanco goes for the Astros, and he's allowed nine runs in his two starts this year. But this is an Astros squad finding new ways to win each night, and they'll survive poor pitching from Blanco. The bonus is if Blanco pitches well. Astros to win.

Tampa Bay has a two-game lead in the AL East, and fortunately for this bet, they're not on the road, where they're 24-28. They're at home against the Rangers, where they're 39-16 and have the best home record in baseball by a large margin. This is the rubber match in their first meeting this year. They swept them in Tampa Bay last year, making them 4-1 in their last five meetings. They've got their best on the mound with Shane McClanahan, who the Rays have won three of his past four starts, with him allowing only one combined run in the three games. McClanahan and the Rays at home are the play.

Rookie left-hander Jake Bennett has got the winning decision in his last five starts, and he's only allowed six runs in his last six starts. While Bennett wins, the Red Sox have moved up to 55-50 with a two-game lead in the wild card hunt. The Red Sox have won 18 of their past 20 games while tonight’s opponent, the Athletics, have lost 24 of their last 30 games. After a fantastic start, Athletics rookie left-hander Gage Jump has lost his last five starts with a 9.65 ERA over that stretch. Red Sox to win.