We've got a quarterfinals match-up in the Summit League Tournament at Sioux Falls with South Dakota State playing St. Thomas. St Thomas is posted as a 6-point favorite, and I made the spread 11.5. It looks like a mismatch to me. St. Thomas finished the year 12-4 in conference play, while South Dakota State was 7-9. St. Thomas only covered 13 games this year, which may explain the low number, but they've won the last two meetings with South Dakota State. They also covered six of their last eight. St. Thomas shoots 51.1% from the field, which ranks 7th nationally. They also shoot 36.6% from three-point range and average 83.3 points per game. St Thomas to cover.
The Nets and Heat have met twice this season, with Miami winning and covering by 11 points or more. They met two nights ago in Miami, where the Heat won 124-94, covering 13 points. It's the same situation tonight. Michael Porter is failing lately as the Nets primary scorer, shooting 0-for-9 from 3-point range on Tuesday night. The team shot 38% from the field. The Nets are now 15-46 and have lost their last nine in a row. Just one game out from having the worst record in the NBA. They're tanking and don't even care who knows. They've only covered one game out of their last nine. Heat to cover.
Navy plays Bucknell in the quarterfinals of the Patriot League Tournament, and they're playing at home. Navy has won 13 games in a row and covered 12 straight. They beat Bucknell by 16 or more in both meetings this season, and I like them to cover this one as well. Bucknell went 10-22 this season, while Navy has covered 20 of its games. They're getting better as the season goes on. Navy to cover.
The Celtics last played on Monday and won their third straight game, while the Hornets won and covered their fifth straight game yesterday. The Hornets are now 31-31, sitting with the 9th seed. Now, they're only two games from the 6th seed. They're moving up fast. Do I trust the Hornets against a team like the Celtics that plays solid defense, holding teams below 100 in nine of their past 13 wins? The Hornets have won 15 of their last 18 games. Only three teams have beaten them since January 22nd. This is their first meeting this year, and the Celtics have won the previous six meetings. I'm buying this Hornets squad on the road with no rest.
We've got a battle of the slowdown teams in the Atlantic 10 with Fordham against LaSalle. Both teams are at the bottom of the conference, but for bettors who like the under, Fordham has gone under 20 times this year, and LaSalle has gone under 17 times this year. Fordham is the top under team in the nation that has stayed under 76.9% of their games. The last time they met on January 28th, Fordham won 64-58, staying under 136.5. Chances are, this game stays under as well. I made the total 120, and the send out was 133.5, dropping to 131.5. Just the under.
Nebraska is forecasted to be the No. 3 seed in the NCAA tournament, and UCLA is looking to be a 9th seed in the South. It's Big Ten basketball in Los Angeles, and Nebraska has been there all weekend, beating USC 82-67 Saturday as a 4-point favorite, and now they ride a three-game win streak. UCLA comes off a loss at Minnesota, and they've lost three of their past five games. Nebraska has been playing college basketball at an elite level and sits tied for second in the Big Ten at 14-4. Overall, Nebraska is 25-4. Nebraska should probably be a 4-point favorite here as well. Nebraska to cover.
The Spurs had an 11-game winning streak going until they faced the Knicks on Sunday at MSG. The Spurs shot only 42% from the field and 26% from 3-point range, while turning the ball over 22 times. It may have been one of the un-Spurs-like moments of the year. The Spurs are second in the West and look like the best team in basketball. They win on the road almost as impressively as their 21-6 home record. This is their first meeting with the 76ers this season after beating them 128-120 last March. Spurs to cover. Spurs start up another winning streak tonight and cover. Let's say the Spurs win by 10 or more.
UNC-Wilmington is in first place by half a game in the Colonial Athletic Association at 25-5, while Elon sits 11th at 14-16. This is one where I made the spread 9.5, and the send out was 5, giving me 4.5 points of value with the side I like. Wilmington beat Elon 65-54 on February 12th, covering the 8.5 spread. Wilmington comes off a loss on Sunday to College of Charleston as a 5.5-point favorite, which ended a six-game winning streak. Elon has lost its last three and seven of its last eight, covering only twice in that span. The regular season ends today for both teams. Wilmington to cover.
The Charlotte Hornets have won and covered their last four games, and they have taken over as the NBA's best cover team at 38-23 ATS. The Hornets are almost .500 at 30-31, but they're 10th in the standings, which would be a playoff berth right now. They're moving up fast. They're only three wins from the 76ers, who are currently the sixth seed. Mavericks rookie Cooper Flagg is listed as day-to-day, but he hasn't played in 3 weeks. The Hornets won their last four by at least 16 points and have covered their last seven games. The Hornets have something groovin' right now, cover tonight.
It looks like Michigan State is going to be a number four seed in the NCAA tournament while Indiana needs some help to get in. Even though Indiana is on a three-game losing streak, they're figured to be one of the last teams in. And that's even with the home loss to Northwestern in their last game. Now it's a must-win game for them against Michigan State who they lost to 81-60 on January 13th. Michigan State just won at Purdue and is riding a three-game win streak. They've only lost four games in the Big Ten this season. It's a big challenge for Indiana, but my money is on Michigan State.
Miami-Ohio is 28-0 on the season and only ranked 21st, while four teams ranked ahead of them have seven losses. Not many in the media are giving Miami the respect it deserves. But I give them respect for covering 19 games this season, covering their last five, and also being the No. 1 shooting team in the nation, hitting 52.9%. They also shoot 39.5% from three-point range, which ranks 7th nationally. I like them tonight at Western Michigan to win and cover. They're 12-0 in road games this year. Miami-Ohio to cover.
The Lakers can't beat the good teams, but they feast on the bad teams. Even though the Suns have a winning record on the season, the current state of the team says they're bad. They’ve lost six of their last eight. Once the best covering team in the NBA, they’ve failed to cover seven times in their last eight games. The Lakers have lost four of their last six, but those were all to good teams on a home stand. The Lakers owe the Suns some payback after losing to them 132-108, without Luke Doncic, on December 23rd. Who knows who's going to play for the Suns tonight, but it's a good bet it's not going to be Devin Booker. Lakers to cover.
I'm getting points with Tennessee State (19-9) when they have a better record than Southeast Missouri (18-11), they're 8-7 in away games this season, and they’re the better shooting team. They lost an early home conference game to the Redhawks in December as a 1.5-point underdog. Tennessee State has won seven of its last nine ball games and averages 81.1 points per game. The winner of this game will be tied with Morehead State for the lead in the Ohio Valley Conference. Tennessee State is the better team and covers tonight.
It's a battle between the bottoms in the Summit League with Denver (15-15) and Oral Roberts University (7-22). I like Denver in this spot because I see five points of value for the road team. The spread should be at least eight. Denver has been covering all season, going 18-9 ATS, and they've gone over in 19 games. Denver has also won and covered the last three meetings with ORU. They shoot 48.2% from the field and 38.5% from 3-point range while also making their free throws. Oral Roberts shoots 41.7% from the field. I'm laying the points with Denver on the road.
The Spurs have won and covered the last four meetings with the Nets. Currently, they have won 10 straight games, but they played last night at Toronto and didn't cover -6. The Spurs look like the best team in the West. They're playing together as a team with everyone clicking. The balls are bouncing their way. And the team they're playing, the Nets, is the complete opposite of the Spurs, sitting 15-42 on the season and losing large in their last five games. The Nets blew a big lead on Sunday at Atlanta, and while they scored 17 points in the fourth quarter, it seemed like they didn't score for the final 6 minutes of the game. A Nets brain freeze moment. Spurs cover.