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The South Alabama Jaguars travel to Jonesboro, Arkansas, to play the Arkansas State Red Wolves, who are a 1.5-point favorite Thursday night. The area that got me excited for this game is a total sitting at 57.5. South Alabama averages a 35-31 score as they're 3-2 straight up and ATS. Last week they beat Louisiana Monroe 52–35. They've gone over the total in four of their five games. Arkansas State may barely win the game, but this game will definitely go over despite the last five meetings staying under.

Virginia is 3-1 straight up and ATS, and they won all three of their home games, losing to West Virginia in Charlotte at a neutral site. This is the Cavaliers first true road game. I think Virginia is overrated, and Florida State should be favored in this game. The level of competition between these two is the difference. Florida State lost at Alabama 50-36, covering 18.5, and lost 27-24 to SMU while failing to cover +2.5. Florida State covers this game and shows everyone what Seminoles football is about.

Auburn has beaten Tennessee four of the last five meetings, and the last meeting was in 2020. I was impressed with the Tennessee 20-17 loss to Texas last week. Mostly, it was the run defense that shined and caught my attention. They allowed Texas only 61 yards on 36 carries. Texas has one of the best offensive lines in college football. Tennessee didn't turn the ball over while Texas did twice. In back-to-back games, I don't see Tennessee losing twice. Tennessee to cover.

Ohio State plays its first Big Ten road game of the season at Iowa City on Saturday. The Buckeyes first road game didn't go so well at Texas, losing 24-23. The last time the Buckeyes were in Iowa City was 2017, and Iowa won 55-24 as 21-point underdogs. The spread is only 14.5 right now. Kinnick Stadium is going to be rocking starting Friday night, all the way through Saturday morning into kickoff and throughout the game. The Hawkeyes have won seven straight and four straight this season, and a win against Ohio State sets up unlimited possibilities for the season. I think Iowa will play a tough game with a chance of winning outright.

Wyoming is 2-2, with both their losses coming on the road at Central Michigan and at Colorado State. They won last week against Hawaii 27-10. They are traveling to play North Dakota State, which is 4-0 in its debut season in the Mountain West Conference and hasn't had a home game for 4 weeks. They're going to take advantage of Wyoming and win by 24 or more. I have the Bison also winning the Mountain West Conference.

Alabama has flexed its way to a 4-0 record by beating mediocre programs like South Carolina, Florida State, and Kentucky. They even had trouble at home with Florida State failing to cover 18.5; however, they managed to score a bunch, getting all four of their games over the total. But I don't think the Crimson Tide are ready for the road at Starkville, Mississippi, and a 4-0 football program that is playing way above their rating, going 4-0 ATS as well. More cowbell, I need more cowbell. Mississippi State comes off of beating a good Missouri squad 31-24. Quarterback Kamario Taylor has thrown 14 touchdowns to only 2 picks and averages 5 yards per rush. It'll be his talent that beats Alabama.

Pittsburgh goes to Virginia Tech, and both teams are 4-0 and 3-1 ATS. The difference with Virginia Tech rests with their coach, James Franklin, who was hired this season after the team had a three-win season last year. Coaching matters, and Franklin is the perfect example of why. Pitt has an average score of 18-14, while Virginia Tech averages 43-16. The spread has dropped from Tech -3.5 to -2 in this game. so I'll lay it. Electric atmosphere in Blacksburg at night. Virginia Tech to win.

The weather in Tulsa Thursday night as they welcome North Texas is expected to be 73° with 6 mph winds and a 50% chance of rain. The key weather factor for this bet is the 6 mph wind, which on paper isn't a big deal. The total hasn't reacted much, from an opener of 58 down to 57.5. Tulsa has stayed under all four games, thanks to outstanding defense. They held Oklahoma State to only 10 points, and since that opener, OSU has beaten Oregon 39-31 and won at West Virginia last week, 41-24. They've covered in all three of their games since losing at Tulsa. This game stays under.

We've got a Big Ten battle in Los Angeles between high-scoring Oregon and USC. The spread has gone from Oregon -6 down to -3, and the total has dropped from 64.5 to 61.5. The Ducks have won the last four meetings, including last year's 42-27 victory in Eugene. Oregon averages 506 yards per game while scoring 49 points a game. USC's offense averages 500 yards per game while scoring 43 points a game. USC is undefeated at 4-0 while Oregon is 2-1, losing at Oklahoma State 39-31 as 23.5-point favorites. USC's defense has been terrible on the road, while Oregon's defense has struggled against decent offenses. It all points to the over.

James Madison has won and covered all three of their games, while Old Dominion hasn't covered any of their three games, winning just once. James Madison opened as a 10.5-point favorite, and now they're -5.5. This is a team that has an average score of 44-9 this year. They're playing an Old Dominion squad that has seven turnovers this year. James Madison had quality wins against Liberty as a short favorite and also at San Diego State as an underdog. I like James Madison QB Camden Coleman’s veteran leadership who started his career at Richmond. JMU beat ODU last year, 63-27. James Madison to cover on the road.

Mississippi and Florida are both 3-0 on the season, and they meet Saturday in Gainesville, but I think the wrong team is favored. Florida is -3.5. The Gators return three starters on each side of the ball and come off a 4-8 season where they were 2-6 in the SEC, which includes losing 34-24 at Ole Miss. They won at Auburn and at home against punching bags Campbell and FAU. The problem I have with Florida being favored is that Ole Miss has already beaten ranked teams like LSU and Louisville. When I see Florida at home, I see 4 losses last year. It wasn't so formidable then, and I don't think Mississippi will be afraid of the swamp. Ole Miss +3.5.

Indiana has won and covered their last two meetings with Northwestern, but Northwestern comes into Friday night’s meeting at a perfect 2-0 straight up and ATS. Indiana's won all three of their games so far, but they haven't covered any. They haven't allowed a point in their last two games. The spreads were too high to cover. It was -57.5 against Howard who they put up a 55-0 score on. But the positive news is that Northwestern put a 41-7 beatdown on Colorado last week, forcing four turnovers and holding the ball for 37 minutes. That win gives Northwestern a boost in the ratings that makes the spread only -20.5. Indiana to win by 30 or more against Northwestern.