Oregon
Ducks
OREG
Last 5 ATS
W/L2-2
ATS2-3
O/U4-1-0
FINAL SCORE
41
-
27
USC
Trojans
USC
Last 5 ATS
W/L4-1
ATS1-5
O/U4-2-0
Last 5 ATS
2-2
Win /Loss
4-1
2-3
Spread
1-5
4-1-0
Over / Under
4-2-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
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We've got a Big Ten battle in Los Angeles between high-scoring Oregon and USC. The spread has gone from Oregon -6 down to -3, and the total has dropped from 64.5 to 61.5. The Ducks have won the last four meetings, including last year's 42-27 victory in Eugene. Oregon averages 506 yards per game while scoring 49 points a game. USC's offense averages 500 yards per game while scoring 43 points a game. USC is undefeated at 4-0 while Oregon is 2-1, losing at Oklahoma State 39-31 as 23.5-point favorites. USC's defense has been terrible on the road, while Oregon's defense has struggled against decent offenses. It all points to the over.
When these teams get together, points usually follow. Last year they combined for 69 points. In years prior they've combined for totals in the 70s, 80s, and even the 90s. Neither defense has been overly impressive, and they're going against two very good offenses.
I'm trying to find ways this isn't a high-scoring game. The two times Lincoln Riley and Dan Lanning met, the scores were 36-27 and 42-27 (both Ducks victories). Oregon surrendered 66 combined points in Weeks 1 and 2 to Boise State and Oklahoma State. USC surrendered 65 points in Weeks 2 and 3 to Louisiana and Rutgers. I'm selling both defenses in this matchup. The last team with the ball wins on Saturday at the L.A Coliseum. Oregon 41, USC 38.
I'm going to hit the Oregon ML on a buy-low spot with the Ducks. I don't know if Oregon has worked out all their issues, but I like this matchup for them. USC has played a weak schedule so far, and the defense still looks like a liability. The Trojans gave up 65 points in their last two games to offensive powerhouses Rutgers and Louisiana. USC also allowed an average of 157 rushing yards in those matchups. I have concerns about Oregon's offensive line, although USC doesn't put much pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Trojans will score, but I don't think the defense can stop Oregon. I'd play the ML up to -130.
