USC has allowed 127 points in its last four games...

Can Kentucky's defense slow down LSU?...

Oregon quarterback Dante Moore has been ruled out for this game, although I’m not sure it will matter. Dylan Raiola went 19-of-25 for 289 yards and two touchdowns in just over a half versus USC after replacing Moore. Raiola should feast on a UCLA defense that ranks 90th against the pass and allows 12.7 yards per completion, despite playing a soft schedule. Bob Chesney has the Bruins off to a 4-0 start, and while the defense has been shaky, the offense is rolling. UCLA averages 281 rushing yards per game and has already scored at least 45 points three times. The Ducks are 4-0 to the over, while UCLA has gone over in three of four games. I'll go Over 58.5 for a Half Unit.

I'm taking FSU early because I think this line keeps going down. This is more of a Louisville fade right now. QB Lincoln Kienholz is dealing with an injury and was limited as a runner against NC State, rushing seven times for just 24 yards. The big issue is the Cardinals' rush defense. Louisville is giving up 156 yards per game. That will be a factor versus FSU. The Seminoles rushed for 281 yards in their 38-7 win over Virginia and are averaging 194 yards a game on the ground. FSU's offense is actually playing well, scoring 30+ in three straight. I expect a tight game here. BetMGM and a couple of other books still have +6. I'd play FSU down to +5.

I was a little greedy on this one. Instead of grabbing 13.5 early, I waited to see if money would come in on the home dog. I'm going to hit Ohio State now at -14. This is an awful matchup for Iowa. They can stay with teams like Michigan because the Wolverines don't score. Plus, Iowa did Iowa and returned a kick for a TD. Michigan racked up 429 total yards, including 153 on the ground. If the Buckeyes can run the football on Saturday, it's game over. I just can't see the Hawkeyes scoring much here, and I like the fact that Ohio State has already lost a game. I think this one could get ugly. Lay it with the Buckeyes.

Buffalo is a bad team, but this early number is a little high. I made Western Michigan -11.5 on the road. Both teams play slow, and I think it will be an ugly, low-scoring rock fight. This is also a bad spot for the Broncos after getting hammered at home by Boise State in a game where they were sky-high. I will be at this game. My son is visiting UB and I have seats right behind the team. If things go bad, at least I'll get my money's worth yelling at the players. I took +15.5 for a Half Unit. Bet Buffalo at +14.5 or better.

The rain in Starkville looks like it will hold off until Sunday, so I expect a high-scoring game. Alabama’s offense is rolling. The Crimson Tide are averaging 48 points with dual-threat quarterback Keelon Russell under center. Russell has 1,297 total yards and 11 touchdowns through four games. Not to be outdone, Mississippi State star QB Kamario Taylor has thrown 14 touchdown passes and just two interceptions in leading the Bulldogs to a 4-0 record. While Taylor has the offense humming, Mississippi State’s defense is still a work in progress. The Bulldogs allowed 34 points to South Carolina, while Missouri ran 75 plays and piled up over 400 yards last week. This should be a fun game. Bet the over up to 62.5.

I was high on Utah State this year, but they have started the season 0-3. Granted, the loss to FCS Idaho State is disappointing. However, the other two losses were to Utah and a close 16-14 defeat at Washington. I think that is creating a little value here with the Aggies at home. Troy struggles on offense and the Trojans haven't been overly impressive against a much easier schedule. This is also a tough travel spot for Troy, going across the country after facing Missouri. Look for Bronco Mendenhall's defense to dominate, as Utah State gets its first win of the season. I took the ML -130 for a Half Unit.

I'm going to hit the Oregon ML on a buy-low spot with the Ducks. I don't know if Oregon has worked out all their issues, but I like this matchup for them. USC has played a weak schedule so far, and the defense still looks like a liability. The Trojans gave up 65 points in their last two games to offensive powerhouses Rutgers and Louisiana. USC also allowed an average of 157 rushing yards in those matchups. I have concerns about Oregon's offensive line, although USC doesn't put much pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Trojans will score, but I don't think the defense can stop Oregon. I'd play the ML up to -130.

I'm going to lay the 9.5 with Auburn here. Vanderbilt is coming off one of the luckiest wins I've ever seen over NC State. Let's not forget, the Wolfpack led 24-7 in the third quarter and 31-21 in the fourth. They controlled most of that game. I think Vandy is closer to the team that struggled to beat Delaware and was down double-digits to an average NC State squad at home. True freshman QB Jared Curtis will make just his second start and his first career road start. I believe Auburn will improve throughout the season under new head coach Alex Golesh. It starts here with a big win at home.

I love this matchup for the Irish. Purdue's rush defense is abysmal. The Boilermakers gave up 369 rushing yards to UCLA and 186 to Wake Forest. Notre Dame has used some different backs after losing two first-round draft picks. I was waiting for them to settle on Nolan James Jr. Last week, James ran for 121 yards on 26 carries vs. Michigan State. I expect him to have a huge game Saturday. Notre Dame hung 56 and 66 on Purdue the last two years. I think it's more of the same against a Boilermakers' defense that allowed 90 points the last two weeks. I grabbed -27.5 early. Look for ND's offense to get rolling here. This feels like a 52-13 kind of Irish domination.

Playing North Dakota State on the opener under 24 points. The Bison might be a wagon this year. NDSU dominated Air Force before running out of gas at altitude late. Sacramento State would still be an average FCS team. The Bison traditionally murder these teams and I think that trend continues here. Like them in a 52-13 kind of game.

I wanted to play this game early, but QB health is a key factor here for both teams. La Tech's starting QB, Blake Baker, is out with a fractured hand. Backup Trey Kukuk will get the nod and will face a lot of pressure because the Bulldogs can't run the football. Baylor QB DJ Lagway was held out of last week's game vs. Prairie View with an ankle injury, and while I originally expected him to play, Lagway was listed as doubtful on Thursday. Junior Nate Bennett will get his second start vs. Louisiana Tech. I'm still rolling with my Baylor bet at -19 because I expect the Bears' defense to dominate. However, I wouldn't play Baylor higher than 19.5 with Lagway out.

This will be a competitive game, but I like Louisville to prevail at home. My concern entering the season was SMU's rebuilt defensive line. Florida State rushed for 200 yards with no passing threat. The Cardinals ran for 162 yards vs. Ole Miss and ripped Villanova for 375. I also like that Louisville faced one of CFB's top offenses in Ole Miss. I think they will be more prepared for Kevin Jennings and SMU. This game is pretty even on paper, but I expect the Cardinals' three-headed rushing attack of QB Lincoln Kienholz, RB Isaac Brown, and RB Keyjuan Brown to be the difference. Give me the Cardinals ML -120 for 1 unit.

I understand taking Air Force on the opening line of +6.5. That line was crazy and didn't last long. But now there is too much value on North Dakota State that I have to go the other way. I made the Bison -3.5 in this matchup, so getting them on the ML at -122 is purely a numbers play for me. NDSU head coach Tim Polasek knows Air Force from his time at Wyoming and said he spent most of the summer preparing for their option attack. If the defense can limit big plays, I think QB Nathan Hayes and North Dakota State's offensive line will be the difference in the fourth quarter. I grabbed the ML -122 for a half unit at FD.