FanDuel. This line is too high for Caris LaVert, despite him seeing an uptick in minutes last game. I’m expecting his playing time to regress, as he’s been largely ineffective at both ends (including remaining under this line in all five games this series). He’s struggled to finish around the rim and is not consistent enough of a jump shooter (34%) to worry about). Danie’s Jenkins, Isaiah Stewart and Javonte Green should serve as the primary bench options tonight.

In five games so far, Ausar Thompson has P/R totals of 15 twice, and of 19, 21 and 25 the other times. There’s no reason he shouldn’t keep that up; Orlando ranks 25th in points allowed to opposing small forwards and 27th in rebounds allowed, combining for over 33 P/R per game over 48 minutes.

With Orlando's Franz Wagner out for Game 5, the Magic shifted to a more isolation-based offense. He's out for Game 6 as well. More isolation for the Magic means less creation and driving to the hoop. They had 26% less drives in Game 5. Over 86% of Wendall Carter's points have come from no-dribble attempts. With fewer creations and driving, that's fewer opportunities for Carter. He scores when people drive and dish. Detroit defense (5th-fewest assists per made bucket allowed) is doing what it does and forcing isolation sets. Carter isn't afraid to launch, but he's 3-of-12 from 3 in series and was 27.8% post-All Star Break. Jalen Duren has struggled in the series, but handled the putbacks, which is less for Carter as well.

FanDuel. Desmond Bane has averaged 8.8 three point attempts per game this series. His drives to the basket are down in the playoffs from 10.8 in the regular season to 6.2. It makes sense - the Pistons are one of the most physical, one-on-one teams, and Bane is being checked primarily by defensive stalwart (and athletic freak) Ausar Thompson. To compensate, Bane is taking far more pull-up threes (5.4 compared to 2.4 in the regular season). Without Franz Wagner, the Magic will need Bane to score, and I see that coming from behind the arc. A 40.7% shooter at home in the regular season (and 12/19 in the playoffs) - I absolutely love this line, and think it’s mispriced at plus odds.

Pistons all-world defender Ausar Thompson has played 32 or more minutes in three straight games and is coming off an incredible all-around performance: 15 rebounds, six assists, five steals and two blocks (not to mention six points). The 23-year-old has recorded seven, eight, eight, nine and 15 boards in this series. Fellow starter Tobias Harris (ankle) is questionable for Game 6. He's averaging 7.6 rebounds in this series, so his potential absence (or if he's limited) would put even more of a rebounding burden on Thompson. I would also play this Over 7.5 at even money or better.