Jaguards defense to control the Patriots offense...

Eagles have shown no offense and Bears have a QB issue...

Based on Week 1 alone, the Giants look like the side you want to be on, but this line was Rams -9.5 on the lookahead board last week. The late travel to Australia strategy which didn't work, but the travel was done that way as to be better for the Rams when they get back to Pacific Time Zone. 10 days off and against a Giants team, which looked great --- vs. an awful Cowboys defense. The Giants had 37.5 minutes of possession vs. Dallas, who allowed the G-Men to convert 9 of 11 third downs. Shouldn't have been a surprise as the Cowboys were 32nd in that category last year. But the Rams were 7th and won't let the Giants keep it that long.

Jaxson Dart is averaging 36.1 rushing yards per game in short career, including 54 last week, with 3 designed runs in there. He's hit 32+ in seven of his last eight games, averaging 43.3 in that stretch. Last year vs. the Rams. Stroud went for 32, Hurts 40, Huntley 39, and Caleb Williams 40 vs. the Rams. Brock Purdy had 29 last week.

The Jaguars had the top rush defense in the NFL last year, holding teams to 85.6 yards per game. Last week, Judkins only had 33 yards, getting us the win in his prop. I faded RBs on a weekly basis against them and with the way the Broncos looked last week vs. KC (61 total rush yards), I am going right back to the well. Dobbins had 36 yards last week and 17 was on one carry. He had 19 yards on his other 7 carries.

Cincy hung on to beat Tampa Bay in after the Bucs had 4 TOs, including fumbling into the end zone. Some credit goes to what seemed like an improved Bengals defense, but Baker had 3 fumbles, which isn't surprising considering he led the NFL in that category each of the last two seasons. The projected high-flying Bengals offense only had 351 yards, with Chase catching 2 passes and Brown running for 56 yards. The Texans vaunted defense (1st in 2025) got lit up in Week 1 by Buffalo, but after watching last night's Bills destruction of the Lions, maybe that's not so bad after all. I do not expect the Texans defense to look that bad again the rest of the season.

The Atlanta Falcons are not a good football team right now. Granted, they are on QB3, but QB1 and QB2 aren't good either. Outside of Bijan Robinson, the Falcons completed 4 passes all day. Drake London, Zaccheaus, Dotson, and Pitts were not used and this wasn't the '85 Bears they were facing. Panthers showed last year was no joke, even in the loss, and are primed to repeat in that division. They couldn't stop the Bears, but the Falcons offense is the opposite. I don't have a problem taking road team here, even knowing that Bryce Young has never covered in a game as favorite.

This is not a fade nine QBs, including Jared Goff last week (who threw for 327 yards vs. Bills last night) have failed to break 230 yards passing on the Saints. Goff had 206 last week. Opposing starting QBs went under 200 passing yards in 10 of 17 games as the Saints finished 4th in pass defense at 170.2 pass yards per game. Baltimore ran 37 times in Week 1 and the Saints didn't stop the run vs. the Lions, allowing 165. Now add the fact that Zay Flowers, the leading WR, may not play.

Saints QB Tyler Shough keeps performing and books continue to ignore it. He struggled in first half last week, but ended up with and NFL-high 410 yards. Well the line is 15 yards lower this week. He has hit this in each of this last five and in seven of the last eight games last season. Once again, should be operating in a negative game script with being an 8.5-point underdog.

Neither offense was any good in Week 1 and the Eagles faced what was supposed to be a terrible Commanders defense. It was not a good start for the Philly offense, despite the win. I don't think Tennessee actually has an offense as they were as inept as possible at home vs. Jets. Philly at least got 300+ yards. Tennessee had 195 total yards at home in the opener. 195.

Tennessee allowed 152 rushing yards to Breece Hall and Braelon Allen as the Jets game plan was to run, run, run, holding the ball for 39 minutes. Even though there has been a dip in Saquon Barkley's numbers since his 2,000-yard season in 2024, he still had hit 70+ yards in five of his last six games, with 68 in the other. I expect the Eagles to copy what the Jets did and run all game.

The Bills were a middle of the road passing team last year, 15th of 32 teams at 216.6 yards per game. In Week 1 under Joe Brady, Josh Allen threw for 334 yards against one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Lions defense looked Super Bowl worthy in the first half vs. the Saints, holding Tyler Shough to 85 yards and the Saints to 111 total yards. Then the second half happened. Saints ended up with 469 yards, Shough had NFL-high 410 and Chris Olave 10-182. D.J. Moore's debut, going against Derek Stingley, had a team-high 8 targets, which he got exactly zero times last season with Caleb Williams.

Dating back to 2023 season, over the last six meetings, the combined score of the Broncos-Chiefs game has not gone above 41 points. None of the ones at Arrowhead went over 33. Over the past four years, KC home games have hit 76.5% (26-8) to the under, and by six points per game. While it's hard to predict injury impact, Mahomes is playing his first game off the ACL injury. They also have injury issues on the OL. with Josh Simmons out. Over the past two seasons, these are two of the top four scoring defenses. Last year, Denver had third-best scoring defense (18.3 PPG), while KC was 6th (19.3). Chiefs played 13 of 17 games to the under last year, most in the NFL.

Yes, the Packers made the postseason last year and the Vikings didn't. But entering Wild Card weekend, if you asked me which team I'd rather have, it would've been the Vikings, who ended the year with 5 straight wins, while the Packers limped in with four straight losses and then promptly lost to the Bears in the WC round. Now fast-forward to 2026 and I am not sure anything has changed other than the Vikings getting Kyler Murray and the Packers losing Josh Jacobs for the beginning of the year. It's Week 1 and I think the Vikings are the better team and are in better shape entering the opening contest.

I just don't see these two offenses putting up points, even with two new regimes. The Miami Dolphins are returning only 11.2% of their total wide receiver receiving yards from the 2025 season. Looking back at the combined 2024 and 2025 totals, that number drops even further to a miniscule 9.6%. Raiders are rolling with Cousins to start, but Jeanty is hurting and Brock Bowers is out. This is a Raiders team that was last in the NFL at 14.2 points per game last year. Last in total yards (245.2), last in rushing (77.5), 28th in passing (167.7).