Sunday Night in the PNW - Chiefs at Seahawks

A Reason to Watch - Browns at Titans

AFC East Division Tilt - Dolphins at Jets

Horseshoes and Norsemen - Colts at Vikings

Similar to the Patriots stock ascending too quickly, the faith in the Raiders is waning too quickly. They played an excellent game against KC and nearly won. They got smoked in New England by a team looking to avenge last season's embarrassment. Buffalo was just a 3.5 underdog that won outright in a very lengthy, emotional, high-profile contest and is now being thrust into the role of road favorite - which is deserved but again, I believe the perception is a bit high on Buffalo and too low on Las Vegas. Buffalo's defense allows opponents to stick around. I think the Raiders get right here and possibly win outright. I'll take as low as 4.5 here and feel I still have enough of an edge.

Important to get 7.5 and not just a flat 7. Patriots off two straight, big wins - over Buffalo and hammering the Raiders. Their stock is on the rise because of this and I believe too high too soon against a Jets team that has been excellent defensively. NYJ struggles to score on offense but their defense is keeping them in games. NYJ may not win this game outright - although, I feel they could be this week's upset candidate - but whatever the case, I believe 7.5 is too many. Let's not rush to put NE back in the SuperBowl as I still don't believe they are very good - and they are still very injured. Flyboys keep this one inside a full TD.

It looks like the recreational players can't get to the window fast enough and are cutting in line to bet Jacksonville and I imagine that is related to the fact that this team has been in London for a week already and Houston is just a 1-4 football team. Fact is the Jaguars should have lost last week and Trevor Lawrence throughout his young career, has struggled vs. DeMeco Ryans' defense. The fact that this line is staying put at 2.5 tells me it is not going to the key number of 3 and that has me joining the against the grain party, taking the 2.5 with Houston

Rallying behind the backup quarterback has happened early and often in the 2026 NFL season and we have that situation again with Tyler Huntley filling in for the fallen Lamar Jackson. I fully expect the Ravens to play at a high-level under the Sunday Night lights. Meanwhile, the stock could not be any higher on the suddenly amazing Falcons. I believe 3.5 is too much of an adjustment. I do think we get a very competitive game here but not one that is 4-points in favor of Atlanta - and we're already seeing quite a few 3s pop up in the market. I wouldn't at all be surprised if Baltimore won outright.

Find the full 7 points here, as the market is moving. Much of the doubt on Cincy comes from Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase likely missing this game. For me, that is worth about 2.5 points. Miami remains relatively healthy and is playing hard. They have to see this as a game they can win. They have been at Minnesota, San Francisco, and Las Vegas, and at home against Kansas City - those teams are a combined 15-1. This looks like a very favorable spot for the Fish to put one in the win column. The Bengals struggle to run the ball and are very pass-happy, but they're now missing their two biggest targets. Give me the 7-point home underdog.

The 3-1 Cleveland Browns? What? Here's another 3-1 team visiting a 1-3 team off a loss and the 3-1 team is receiving an alarming about of action - yet the line is going the other way. I agree. NY has been very competitive against strong competition while Cleveland was crushed by Jacksonville, especially fortunate to beat Tampa Bay with a lightning delay, and beat a lousy Steelers team. I'm not sold that this team is suddenly on its way to a division title let alone a playoff spot. I believe the Jets show up in a big way today and handle the Brownies. Rather than mess with the short spread, I took the money line at -130. Just win, baby.

The first place Giants? A win over Dallas doesn't look all that impressive anymore. They should have lost to both the Titans and the Cardinals. I don't have faith in Jameis Winston. And yes, Washington is no great shakes, but Jayden Daniels is back, and Dan Quinn is at his ATS best when playing in division. In addition, 1-3 teams off a loss have been especially profitable in Week 5 for over 40 seasons. The large majority is on the first-place G-Men here, but the line is going the other way. I agree. I'll lay the 3.5 with Washington.

This is the third straight home game for San Francisco. That coupled with a 3-0 start, I believe is inflating this number a bit. Let's remember, they played the Rams in Australia after LA completely misjudged the travel strategy, they played Miami, and last week, the 49'ers beat Arizona but did not cover. Denver has played KC, JAX, and the Rams. This will be SF's most difficult test to date and they have a division game at Seattle on deck. Injuries continue to pile up at Wide Receiver and that makes it even more difficult against this Denver secondary. Getting the full 3 is important here and they are available at a reasonable price. I would not be surprised if the Broncos won outright.

Let's kick off "Hold Your Nose" week with the biggest underdog on the board. Baltimore is coming off an international trip to Brazil and is especially beaten up across the offensive line. Trey Hendrickson is also out on the defensive line. Tennessee is healthy and they continue to play hard. 0-3 teams are typically a good play in Week 4 ATS and the Ravens could possibly be set up here for a flat spot off the emotional win in another country - with Sunday Night Football on deck next week followed by two consecutive division games, followed by at Buffalo and hosting Jacksonville. This looks like a soft spot and 11.5 is too many in my mind. I made the number 8.5.

We missed the 1.5s and the 2.5s, so rather than lay 3, I am playing the money line for Houston to just win the game, which I believe they will do and avoid an 0-4 start. Like Baltimore, Dallas too is coming off a very emotional, international travel, game. The Texans offense has been a huge problem - but not so much when they played a weaker defense and had Nico Collins in the lineup - like they did in Week 1 against Buffalo. Similar here with a much lesser opponent in the Cowboys. On top of being weak defensively, Dallas is also missing key players at Linebacker and in the secondary. I believe Houston gets it figured out this week and wins the game.

I feel the Cardinals deserve to be favored but rather than ask them to win by margin, I will just play on them to win the game. NYG should have lost to the Titans last week. The "Fallen Hero" theory was in play with Jaxson Dart being lost for the season and the team rallied around Jameis Winston, but that is now in the past and clearly NYG doesn't have confidence in Winston, trading for JJ McCarthy. This is not a very good team with very few offensive weapons and now Brian Burns is gone on defense too. AZ can score and the defense is improved from past seasons. Giants are lucky to be 2-1. Everyone is 2-2 after the dust settles in this one.