This feels like a fair price with Miles Mikolas on the mound for the Nationals. Bailey Ober is going for the Twins and he certainly hasn't been dominant, but he's only allowed 3 earned runs over his last 3 starts (going at least 6 innings in each). I expect Ober to pitch to contact and give up a run or two, but I also fully expect the Twins to get the better of Miles Mikolas who simply doesn't have the stuff to be a starting pitcher any longer. The Twins went for 11 runs on Tuesday against the Nats and I think they continue their hitting ways today.

Caesar’s / B365. I’m going to pick on the Nationals lineup again, this time backing the under on Bailey Ober’s hits allowed prop. The Nats just have not been hitting at all, accumulating a .177 average the last two weeks against righties. Ober has only allowed 30 hits in 38 innings this season, staying under this line in six of seven starts. His success is due in part to his lower arm angle, which combined with his towering frame and long extension, has made it difficult for hitters to pick up the ball. Ober’s contact metrics are all in the elite range this season, which has lead to drop in batting average allowed and xBA. Look for the righty to continue his resurgent season today.