FanDuel. Once again, we have a very nicely valued line for Ja’Kobe Walter to sink three triples. The wing is in a starting role playing 26-32 minutes per game pending foul trouble, shooting 7.3 threes per game over the last four, all without Kawhi Leonard. It’s a tough matchup on a back to back, but the role and volume have been too good to pass up at this price.

Caesar’s. This one will be a tough bet to watch, because while Colston Loveland is under this line in six of seven games, the talented tight-end is capable of breaking a long one. However - I don’t see that happening tonight. The Seattle defense is relentless against tight ends, allowing the fewest yards per reception (7.3) and the second fewest yards per target (5.2). It’s also a brutal schematically as Loveland’s target per route run drops to 0.17 against zone this season, which the Seahawks run at the highest rate. Seattle has also only allowed three catches of 15+ air yards out of the slot or in-line this season. Loveland only has two of Caleb Williams 19 targets of 15+ air yards this season.

DraftKings. I like this as a sneaky spot for Caleb Williams rush attempts. This is the second consecutive season that the Seahawks are allowing scrambles at a top rate (2.7 this season, 2.5 last year - both within the four teams with the most allowed). Williams sees his scramble rate multiply when he’s pressured: 18% of pressured dropbacks (compared to 2% of clean dropbacks), similar numbers to last season. The Seahawks get pressure at the second highest rate, and also are forcing the highest pass rate over expectation. Williams ankle looks close to 100%, and I expect him to be on the move tonight.

DraftKings. This is a sneaky spot for Tory Horton, who should see a nice bump in snaps with Rashid Shaheed sidelined tonight. Horton is a deep threat complement to Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp, and I see this as a matchup where he can break a long one. For one, the Bears run a man scheme at the fourth highest rate - Horton sees his target rate and average depth of target spike against the coverage. And the Bears are allowing the second highest yards per route run (3.8) and yards per target (17.1) on throws more than 15 yards downfield. Seattle’s run game has also struggled - and the Bears getting Jeffrey Simmons should be massive for their run defense.

DraftKings. With Malik Muhammad ruled out, I’m expecting Kyler Gordon to see his snap share continue to rise after playing 57% of the defensive snaps last week. He’s cleared this line in both games he’s played, despite being eased into action after missing the beginning of the season with an injury. He’ll be intimately involved with coverages on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the run defense, and even blitzes. When he’s at full strength, this is too low of a line, and I’m betting we get a close enough version of that tonight.

FanDuel. When Ayo Dosunmu came over to the Timberwolves last season, he started crashing the boards hard. Without Anthony Edwards in the lineup, Ayo had 5+ rebounds in 6/8 games, averaging 6.1 on 10.3 chances in those contests. This season, we’re seeing similar results without Edwards as Ayo has cleared this line in 2/3, averaging 6.3 on 11 chances. Rebounds for guards are highly variable, but given this is a plus matchup against Milwaukee (12th most rebounds allowed and the 8th highest three point rate) - I’ll gladly take the value at plus odds.

Caesar’s. Since Paolo Banchero went down with an injury, Franz Wagner is cleared this line in 2/4 games. Not only is he needed on the scoring front, but he’s also averaging 15.3 potential assists and 70.8 passes per game in that span. The injury woes have magnified, as Jalen Suggs and Anthony Black will both be out tonight, leaving Wagner and Desmond Bane as the offensive igniters. Against the Wizards, I like the spot for Wagner - Washington has struggled against scoring/pick and roll facilitating wings this season.

FanDuel. I like Yaxel Lendeborg to bounce back after his foul-plagued performance two nights ago. Previous to that, the rookie had cleared this line in four straight games (36 PRA in each), and will now be playing without Steph Curry and Draymond Green. Playable up to over 32.5.

FanDuel. Stefon Diggs has cleared this line in three of five games. Yes, one miss was against the Eagles, but he did draw nine targets with four catches (and two drops). Without the injured Terry McLaurin, Diggs should serve as Jayden Daniels’ preferred alpha in the Commanders passing game having already lead the team in targets per game (7.4). The Eagles have been getting burned by slot receivers, allowing the second most receptions per game (7.2). They defend the other positions well, and I expect the run defense to bounce back after last week’s debacle against the Cowboys.

Caesar’s. Zack Baun has cleared this line in 4/6 games this season. He’ll face a Washington offense that is a haven for linebacker tackles, especially when Jayden Daniels is taking the snaps. In Daniels four starts this season, an opposing off-ball linebacker has cleared this line in each game - six in total. This includes Baun’s 12 in Week 1, as this is a matchup he’s thrived in as an Eagle. I also do not trust the Eagles offense to be able to sustain drives against the Commanders defense, which is built to limit Saquon Barkley on the ground.

DraftKings. Xavier Worthy gets another tough matchup this week, this time against the Broncos secondary. Pat Surtain II is practicing in full, and Worthy figures to see a lot of the All-Pro cornerback on the outside. With Rashee Rice likely back, Worthy should see his target share decline, and his production should be even more contained to the outside. Even if Rice doesn’t suit up, this is a matchup Worthy has struggled to produce against in the past - and overall he’s under this line in 4/6 games this season. I expect Kansas City to go run heavy against a middling Broncos run defense.

DraftKings. With all of the injury issues the Patriots have faced at wide receiver, Eli Raridon has seen his snap and route share rise over the last few weeks. The rookie has cleared this line 3/6 times this season, with 3+ targets in each of his last three games. He’ll play the Dolphins defense which has allowed comical numbers to tight ends this season: 44 catches on 48 targets (92%!) for 448 yards - 9.3 yards per target is second behind the Bengals. But they’re even worse against in-line pass catchers, at 11.42 yards per target and 59 yards per game (both pace the league). Raridon does most of his work in-line as compared to Hunter Henry who operates more in the slot.

FanDuel. To get this line at a remotely playable (-150 or better) price is value. Kyren Williams has scored a touchdown in five of seven games this season, and 13/20 last year. The Chargers have allowed the most rush attempts inside the five yard line per game this season, the fifth highest touchdown rate on runs, and the eighth most touchdowns per game to running backs. Without Davante Adams, Matthew Stafford loses his key end-zone target, opening more opportunity for Williams, who is just as capable to score through the air as he is on the ground.

FanDuel. Sean McVay finally realized his team can run the ball last week and he unleashed both of his running backs for a total of 192 yards on 33 totes. Kyren Williams had 99 of those yards, and he’s consistently stayed first in line for carries before Blake Corum. The Rams will face the Chargers who rank 28th in DVOA against the run (per FTN) while allowing 105 yards per game to running backs (eighth most). They struggle moreso against man/gap runs, allowing 4.76 yards per carry - Williams is at a gaudy 5.42 clip in that scheme. Even out of a bye, I don’t expect the Chargers to do anything to pressure the Rams out of a neutral game-script at worst.

DraftKings. Gunnar Helm has not produced much this season - he only has 84 yards in 7 games, clearing this line just twice. However, his role is elite, regularly playing 70-80% of the snaps each week. Without Carnell Tate (doubtful) this week, we could see Helm actually accrue some targets against the Bengals tight-end funnel. Cincy is allowing 85 receiving yards per game to the position, regularly locking down both wide receivers and the run game.