Prop's Picks (2 Live)
Prop's Past Picks
Caesar’s. Vit Krecji has cleared this line in 7 of the last 10 for the Hawks, and 5/7 overall without Jalen Johnson (ruled out). His minutes floor should be relatively stable without both Johnson and Zaccharie Risacher, and could potentially be boosted if De’Andre Hunter (illness) is also ruled out. Regardless if Hunter plays, I like this spot for Krecji - he just dropped 13 points in this same matchup against the Raptors on Thursday. Toronto is well below average against both spot-up shooters and in transition.
DraftKings. Jaylen Brown has failed to clear this line in 11 of 15 games with both Jayson Tatum and Kristaps Porzingis active (as both are expected to be today). In those contests, two of the overs were at 32, and the other two at 34. In fact, Brown averages about 4.2 PRA less per 36 minutes with Porzingis on the floor - the biggest drop off of all Celtics in the main rotation. And today isn’t a particularly strong matchup for him either - the Mavericks take away transition opportunities at the third best rate in the NBA. Brown is the Celtics main fast-break merchant (27% of his points) - Tatum and Porzingis stand to benefit more in the half court.
DraftKings. Devin Vassell is running hot, scoring 20+ points in each of his last five games. Overall for the season, he’s cleared this line in 11/17 games when playing 28+ minutes (his normal rotation has him at 32-34 right now). While his recent surge is a product of some unsustainably hot shooting, Vassell has cleared this line in 9/12 games with 24+ minutes against teams in the bottom half of the NBA in defending spot up shooters. The Pacers rank 26th in that regard, and I do expect them to look to converge more on Victor Wembanyama, who torched them for 30 points on Thursday. Would bet this to over 18.5.
Taking a stab with Nick Smith Jr. here, in a spot where the Hornets will be without Brandon Miller, Lamelo Ball and Miles Bridges. Smith had moved into the starting lineup as is, so it wouldn’t surprise me for the Hornets to let him run the show tonight.
FanDuel. Averaging 23 rebounds plus assists this season, Nikola Jokic has cleared this line in 25 of 37 games. This includes a run of nine of his last ten, despite not playing in the fourth quarter in several of those contests due to a blowout. He’ll now get a Kings team that’s playing at the 8th fastest pace in the league over the last 15 games. Jokic registered 27 R+A in their last matchup.
Caesar’s. While rookie Kel’el Ware is making headlines in Miami (and deservedly so), another young guy playing some solid basketball is Nikola Jovic. The second year wing has cleared this line in eight of his last ten games. Playing significant minutes off the bench, Jovic has also cleared this line in 9/13 games when playing just 20+ minutes, and without Jimmy Butler (suspended… again). The matchup against the Bucks should suit Jovic well, as Milwaukee allows spot up and transition points at an above average clip. Schematically, it’s easier to attack the bucks from the perimeter - and with Terry Rozier struggling of late, there is a clear path for Jovic to see 30+ minutes again tonight.
FanDuel. Andrew Wiggins had been on a roll before he (and the Warriors) hit a buzzsaw versus the Celtics. Overall, he’s over in 6/8 without Jonathan Kuminga, and 14 of the last 20 when he plays at least 28 minutes. The minutes ceiling will be there today as the Warriors are without Draymond Green and Kyle Anderson as well. Plus, Wiggins will go up against a Kings squad that allows the most spot up points (Wiggins #1 playtype).
FanDuel (10+ at +105). Even with the potential return of Lauri Markkanen and John Collins, this is a very low line for Walker Kessler. With the two big men healthy, Kessler still has cleared this line in 8/13 games with 26+ minutes. The tanking Jazz have nothing to play for except the development of their young core, which should keep Kessler’s minutes floor stable. And against an undersized Thunder team that’s without Isaiah Hartenstein, I have Kessler closer to 12 points.
FanDuel. As part of a breakout campaign, Jalen Johnson is averaging 10.3 rebounds per game this season. While he narrowly missed on this line with 9 boards against the Pistons in their previous matchup, I’m loving the spot for him today. Detroit limits center rebounds, allowing the third fewest to the position. Against the top 8 teams in limiting center rebounds, Johnson has 10+ boards in 10/11 games. Even with him questionable tonight with a shoulder injury (the same designation he held the last two games), I’m loving this spot for Johnson tonight.
DraftKings. Running it back with Corey Kispert, who has now cleared this line in 13/16 games against teams in the bottom half of the NBA in defending the above-the-break three pointer. The Lakers rank 19th, and they also are 22nd in transition defense (Kispert’s preferred playtype). Plus, without Malcolm Brogdon (out), the Wizards have shortened their rotation a bit. Kispert has cleared this line in 12/18 games with just 22+ minutes.
B365 @ -120. Mikal Bridges has cleared this line in 15 of his last 20 games with both Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson active. Now, he gets a Nets defense that ranks in the bottom 4 against both spot-up shooting and transition defense - Bridges scores more than half of his points via those playtypes. Toss in some added motivation for Bridges in his first game back in Brooklyn since being traded to the Knicks - I like this spot.
Caesar’s. Nick Richards had a rousing debut for the Suns, with 21 points and 11 rebounds in 29 minutes. He did come off the bench, but that seemed to be more of a formality, as Coach Mike Budenholzer has already stated he’d be the starter. Not trying to extrapolate Richards’ performance off of one game, but he’s someone who has produced on a per-minute basis the last few seasons. The Cavs haven’t been as tough against centers this season, and he’ll only have to face Jarrett Allen with Evan Mobley out.
Caesar’s. The Hornets have unleashed Mark Williams, and the results have been fantastic. The oft-injured big man is finally off his minutes restrictions, and is coming off three consecutive monster performances totaling at least 38 points plus rebounds in each. In general, Williams is averaging 34.5 points + rebounds per 30 minutes this season. And he’ll now face off against a Mavericks team that’s allowing the 8th most points + rebounds to opposing centers. Dallas big man Dereck Lively is questionable - but I’m loving this bet either way.