Prop's Picks (2 Live)
DraftKings. I like this matchup for Cam Schlittler tonight. The Cy Young candidate is under this line in 9/15 starts this season, including 5/6 against teams in the bottom half of batting average against right handers. The one exception was the Guardians, who started nine lefties that night. The Reds, who at .227 rank 27th against righties this season, project to start six righties tonight. Schlittler is dominant against this split, with a .171 average allowed (.200 xBA). And the Reds patient approach should especially burn them tonight. Schlittler pounds the zone (11th highest rate amongst qualifiers), but the Reds have both the sixth lowest in-zone swing rate and in-zone contact rate. There should be plenty of contact-less pitches from the Yankees ace tonight.
Caesar’s. Even though Roki Sasaki has looked better of late, this is still a high line for the second-year pro. He’s under this outs line in 9/12 starts, pitching to a 4.76 ERA (4.37 xERA). Needing 4.02 pitches per plate appearance (14th percentile amongst qualifiers), he’ll face an Orioles lineup that’s third in that metric, and has the sixth lowest team chase rate.
Caesar’s. Aaron Nola is under this outs prop line in 10/14 starts, including all six outings at home, where he has a 6.21 ERA (.308 opponent average). Nola has been a victim of the ABS system, seeing his zone % shrink to 44% (outside of the COVID season, his previous low was 46%). As a result, his pitches per plate appearance of 4.03 has him in the 11th percentile of qualifiers (compared to 3.85 last year). The Mets bats are heating up (115 wRC+ over the last week), and we have prime hitting conditions at Citizens Bank Ballpark tonight. The Phillies brought up two reinforcements for the bullpen today, and manager Don Mattingly has held Nola to only 88 pitches per start in his tenure.
FanDuel. Parker Messick has actually cleared this line in 9/14 starts this season. However, in five of those outings, he’s been pulled at exactly 17 outs (and none at 15 or 16 outs, when starting the sixth inning - an unsustainable pattern). The sixth inning hooks are tied to his troubles the third time through the order, when he allows a .306 average and .821 OPS. The Brewers are an ideal opponent for the under on Messick’s outs prop - not only are they hitting lefties well (.835 OPS and a 134 wRC+ over the last 30 days), but they are patient at the plate. Milwaukee has the lowest chase rate as a team, and see the seventh most pitches per plate appearance (3.94).
DraftKings. Carlos Rodon is under this line in each of his six starts this season, only allowing 18 hits in 31 innings. Thanks to his high walk rate, Rodon has only permitted a base knock every 7.2 batters faced, or every 30 pitches thrown. Even if he regresses to last year’s numbers (a hit per every 6 batters faced or 23 pitches thrown), we’re still working with a high line for the lefty. His xBA of .184 has him in the 97th percentile, and he’ll face a league average White Sox lineup over their last 300 plate appearances against lefties (.250). The White Sox also own a 10% walk rate against southpaws, and the eighth lowest chase rate overall.
DraftKings. Rinse and repeat. Shane McClanahan has stayed under this outs line in 10/13 starts this season, including 6/7 on the road. When not pitching at the Trop, the Rays lefty sports a 4.32 ERA, 8.8% walk rate, and .300 wOBA. He’ll face the patient Dodgers, who see the fourth most pitches per plate appearance (3.97), and have the third lowest team chase rate. McClanahan will not be pushed to the limit as the Rays look to manage his innings, especially as they have aspirations for their ace to pitch in October. This is an easy under, despite the juice.
Caesar’s. Kyle Bradish has struggled on the road this season, pitching to a 6.18 ERA, with elevated walk rates (14%) and opponent OPS (1.031). With those numbers, he predictably has stayed under this outs line in each of his six away outings. Bradish is also coming off being roughed up at home (4 innings, 7 hits, 5 runs, 3 homeruns) against tonight’s opponent, the Mariners. Bradish, who also sees his pitches per plate appearance spike to 4.13 on the road, should also struggle from an efficiency standpoint against the Mariners who are 12th in that metric, and drew three walks against Bradish last week.
FanDuel. This is too low of a line for Shohei Ohtani, who has at least six strikeouts in nine of eleven starts, including all five outings at Dodger Stadium. While the Rays are tough on paper, they’ve been punched out at a 22.7% clip by righties over the last two weeks. I have Ohtani projected closer to seven strikeouts today.
DraftKings. Foster Griffin has stayed under this hits allowed line in eight of his 12 starts this season, including four of five home outings. After a three-year stint in Japan, Griffin returned to the US this season armed with a seven-pitch mix, with all but one holding opponents to under a .240 batting average. Overall, Grffin has held opposing hitters to a .212 average - and even if he does regress towards his expected .242 xBA, this is still a high line. The Royals are only hitting .239 as a team against lefties this season. And albeit a small sample, Griffin has been much stingier on five days rest (.196 OBA), which could be a product of how starters were deployed in Japan.
FanDuel (+104). Mackenzie Gore has stayed under this line in nine of his last 11 full starts. In his first season as a Ranger, he’s raised his arm angle which has allowed hitters to pick up the ball better - his whiff rates are the lowest and walk rates the highest since his rookie year. What’s remained consistent is his low pitch efficiency: 4.04 per plate appearance has him in the 12th percentile amongst qualifiers. The Twins have six hitters in the lineup with above average wRC+ against lefties this season. Gore has struggled the third time through the order (.911 OPS), and the Rangers bullpen is rested. At short odds, I’ll roll the dice that the lefty does not have his ‘A’ stuff tonight.
Caesar’s. Drink the juice - Zack Wheeler has cleared this line in eight of nine starts this season, with the lone exception being his first start when his pitches were capped. He’s pitched at his typical Cy Young caliber level: 2.22 ERA, while holding opponents to a .221 xBA and only yielding a 5.6 walk rate. He’ll face the Marlins, who not only see the sixth fewest pitches per plate appearance as a team (3.81), but also have only mustered a .715 OPS over the last month against righties. Yes, it’s pricey, but this one is even worth a half unit at over 18.5 outs at +115 or better, as I have him projected at 20 outs today.
DraftKings. I’ll bite on this line. Terrific hitting conditions are expected tonight at Fenway Park, but this line still reads as too high. Nathan Eovaldi does a good job is suppressing hard contact, especially against righties. Versus that side of the platoon Eovaldi allows a .219 average (.234 xBA) with well above average groundball and hard hit rates. He’Lloyd face five righties tonight, and six total Red Sox who possess xBA’s of lower than .250 against righties. Eovaldi is under this line in 9/12 starts this season.
Caesar’s. Two factors at bay here that skew me towards the under. For one, the Diamondbacks are an excellent hitting team against left-handed pitching - .767 OPS on the season, and .857 OPS over the last month (with a 132 OPS). Secondly, we have great hitting conditions at Great American Ballpark in the earlier part of the game, leading into rain. Andrew Abbott isn’t the most efficient pitcher (3.97 pitches per plate appearance, 1.48 WHIP at home), and for him to clear this line, it might be a race against the impending weather.
Caesar’s. Kyle Harrison fits my archetype of “stuff so good that it’s hard for him to control and stay efficient” starting pitcher. The Brewers got their hands on the once top prospect this season and predictably got the best out of him immediately. Harrison is pitching to a 2.71 ERA (3.51 xERA). However, he’s under this outs line in 8/12 starts, mainly due to his 4.28 pitches per plate appearance - the highest mark among qualified pitchers. He’ll face the Phillies who are third highest in that metric against left handed pitchers. If the Phils can scrape together anything offensively, they should be able to chase Harrison before the end of the sixth.
FanDuel (-114). This remains a very ambitious line for Grayson Rodriguez, who has yet to complete six innings in any of his five starts this season. Pitching to a 8.10 ERA (6.66 xERA), Rodriguez has been crushed by left handed hitters to the tune of a 1.032 OPS. The Rays are likely to start six southpaws in the lineup today. And overall, the Rays have become one of the more patient teams over the course of the season, with the sixth lowest chase rate over the last month.