Prop's Picks (1 Live)
FanDuel (-154). While this is a decent amount of juice, I’m surprised that we’re getting anything remotely playable on an Anthony Edwards 2.5 three pointers made line. Edwards averaged 3.4 makes per game this season, notching at least three in 68% of games he played at least 24 minutes. He’ll now face a Nuggets defense that allowed the sixth most threes attempted on the eighth highest three point rate. Edwards shot 31 threes in three games against the Nuggets this season, accounting for 46% of his shots (a bump from the usual 42%). I’d bet this up to -165.
Caesar’s. Too many lefties in today’s Royals lineup (6) for Will Warren who struggles moreso against that side of the platoon. Not only does Warren see his OPS spike to .766 against lefties, but his pitches per plate appearance also spikes to 4.2. With the Yanks bullpen in decent shape, and the Royals above average in pitches per plate appearance this season, I see Warren staying under this line for the fourth time in five starts.
Caesar’s. Scottie Barnes was under this line in 35/52 games this season when playing with both Brandon Ingram and RJ Barrett (and under in 4/5 without Immanuel Quickley, who is day-to-day). Narrowing it down further, Barnes is under in 21/26 games within that subset against the top 10 teams in paint points allowed, in which Cleveland ranks fifth. Almost 70% of Barnes’ made baskets and 60% of his assists are in the paint. And notably, Barnes shot 26% from three on the road this season (similar to last season). This series reads more to be Brandon Ingram heavy, and I have Barnes projected closer to 22.5 points plus assists, even with an expected minutes bump.
Caesar’s. Even with a tightened rotation in the first play-in game, there’s not enough usage to go around for De’Anthony Melton, who will continue to come off the bench. Functioning more in an off-ball role, against a team that does well to prohibit secondary action, I like Melton to stay under.
DraftKings. It’s a bit nerve-wracking taking an over on a Jalen Green points prop in win-or-home spot. But this is quite the discounted line: Green is averaging 22.3 points per 32 minutes this season, a very conservative minutes projection given his 39 on Tuesday. He’s cleared this line in 13/16 games playing just 28+ minutes with Devin Booker active. Coming off a 35 point performance on 29 shots, Green will be anything but shy on Friday. He’ll face a Warriors team that allowed the 10th most made pull-up jumpers per game on the third highest effective field goal percentage. Green was 10/17 on pull-ups against Portland, and should thrive in that department against the Warriors.
DraftKings. After a banner rookie year, Kon Knueppel slowed down the stretch, staying under this line in 10 of his last 13 games. In Tuesday’s play-in game, Knueppel was a distant fifth on the Hornets in touch time and front court touches per possession. I expect that trend to continue tonight, against a Magic defense that was number three in terms of limiting catch and shot opportunities, and second in assists per field goals made. Knueppel, of the five Hornets main scorers, is the most reliant on the assist. And since the Coby White trade, the Duke product is under this line in 11/14 games in which LaMelo Ball shoots at least 18 times - a very conservative floor for the enigmatic point guard.
DraftKings. On the heels of Parker Messick’s electric performance last night, which effectively reset the Guardians bullpen, this is a big line for Tanner Bibee tonight. The righty is under in all four starts, and is coming off a start where he was hung out to dry, allowing eight runs against the Braves. Bibee traditionally struggles with his pitch count (29th percentile amongst qualifiers this year - 36th last season), and the third time through the order (opponents are 6/10 this season, .800 OPS last year), there is little reason to push him in the later innings. And today’s Orioles lineup features six hitters who see above average pitches per plate appearance.
FanDuel. Coming off a four strikeout performance in what was a predictable let-down spot in LA against the Dodgers, I’m looking to back Jack Leiter today against the Athletics. Before the Dodger outing, Leiter had recorded 17 punchouts in his first two starts, while showcasing the elite swing and miss arsenal we’d seen in the minors. The A’s possess a 27% strikeout rate against righties this season, and Leiter acquitted himself well last year against a very similar roster twice.
DraftKings (1.5u). Paolo Banchero averaged 5.2 assists per game this season. He cleared this line in 22/31 games when playing 32+ minutes against teams outside the top 12 in assists allowed. The Sixers ranked 22nd in that department, and Banchero’s minutes floor is all but guaranteed. Franz Wagner is back, and he of course missed the bulk of the season, but his minutes will still be somewhat capped, and also staggered with Paolo’s. Bachero also has the more favorable individual matchup as the Sixers lack the front court presence to match his size. Historically, Nick Nurse will send soft doubles/help at Paolo, which should open up assist opportunities.
FanDuel. After going through today’s Cubs lineup which surprisingly included two lefties and no Carson Kelly, I love this spot for Jesus Luzardo. Look for the Phillies lefty to cover this line at home, for the fourth straight game, against a Cubs squad striking out at a 27% clip against southpaws this season.
DraftKings. Eduardo Rodriguez has been excellent this season, yielding just one earned run over his three starts, which includes facing the Dodgers and Braves dynamic lineups. His early success is partly due to his increased reliance on his changeup, which opponents are 4/29 off of, and pounding int the ground with a launch angle of -2 degrees. The outcome is a groundball rate of 51%, which would be a career high for the veteran. He should face a weaker Orioles lineup today featuring their third string catcher (day game after night game) in what’s a getaway day for both squads.
FanDuel. It’s a small sample due to a plethora of injuries, but in the seven games that Dillon Brooks, Devin Booker and Jalen Green played their full complement of minutes, Brooks did not clear this line. In what should be a slower, playoff-like atmosphere, I expect Brooks to remain under this combined total against a Portland team that limits spot up opportunities.
DraftKings. This is a really low line for Michael King, who has had a ton of success at Petco Park as a Padre. In 27 career starts, he’s cleared this line 21 times, with a 31% strikeout rate. He’ll now face a Mariners lineup that’s striking out at a 24.7% clip against righties (ninth most), and has a 28.7% called plus swinging strike rate (seventh highest). King, despite missing on this line in two starts (both on the road) isn’t showing anything on the advanced/analytical side that suggests his strikeouts will regress this season.
Caesar’s. With the Hornets emergence over the second half of the season, Miles Bridges role has quietly shrunk. The wing is under this line in 24 of the last 37 games he’s played with both Brandon Miller and LaMelo Ball. Over that same span, his usage has fallen to 20.7% - it had been 23.3% previously. And newcomer Coby White has dominated the non-Lamelo Ball minutes which used to be a focal point for Bridges. Despite the Heat’s fast paced regular season, I expect a toned down playoff atmosphere tonight. And Miami’s defensive weakness of allowing pull-up shooting is more of the Hornets other scorer’s forte than Bridges’. I’d bet this with confidence to under 17.5.