Bet365 at +105. Sandy Alcantara has yet to regain his pre-injury form. Pitching to a 6.88 ERA, Alcantara has struggled with his pitches efficiency (3.98 pitches per plate appearance) and a walk rate in the double digits (10.5%). He’s specially struggled against lefties, with a 16.9% walk rate, and 4.21 pitches per plate appearance. He’ll face five lefties in a very patient Braves lineup (fifth most pitches per plate appearance, and the third lowest chase rate over the last month).

FanDuel. Chris Bassitt has been really solid at home this season, with a 2.74 ERA, and 50 strikeouts in 46 innings - his second straight season with more than a K per inning at home. He’ll get the White Sox, who are trotting out a lineup with five righties (Bassitt’s better split) and six hitters have an above average strikeout rate against righties.

DraftKings. Aaron Civale has failed to clear this line in any of his six starts this season. Before trading him to Chicago, the Brewers were on to something by moving Civale to the bullpen: the righty allowed an .851 OPS last year the third time through the batting order, and this season opponents are 7/13 off him. He’ll face the Blue Jays who have a .778 OPS and 120 wRC+ against righties at home this season (both are top 7).

DraftKings. Playable up to -155. Hunter Brown gets a nice matchup tonight against the Angels. The Halos have the highest strikeout rate against right-handers this season at 26.1% (26.8% over the last two weeks). Against power pitchers, the Angels strikeout at a 32% rate, while only accruing a .623 OPS. Brown has cleared this line in eight of ten games, reaching at least eight punchouts in each of those eight outings.

Caesar’s. Andre Pallante has allowed at least six hits in eight of his last eleven starts. After the Cardinals deployed their bullpen for nine innings in yesterday’s double header, Pallante will be relied on for a full workload tonight. He’ll face the hot bats of the Reds, who are hitting .295 in the first five innings against righties over the last month. Pallante allows a ton of hard contact (45% hard hit rate and a .277 xBA), and the Reds have a bottom five soft contact rate over the last two weeks.

B365 @ -110. The massive news leading up to Game 6 is Tyrese Haliburton’s availability with a calf injury. While I expect him to suit up, it’s clear that he won’t be 100%. The Pacers will desperately need sources of offense, and I expect Bennedict Mathurin to see an increased role. Mathurin has cleared this line in three of five games this series as is, and he saw the second highest usage bump amongst the Pacers regulars without Haliburton on the court (+3.9%).

FanDuel. Playable to -165. Another juicy under from me, as I’m fading Spencer Strider on his strikeout prop. Strider is coming off a 13 strikeout game against the K-prone Rockies, who were fresh off a homestand. However, before that outing, Strider was under this line in each of his five starts, only reaching the seven strikeout mark once. Strider will have a much tougher opponent tonight in the Mets. New York has consistently held a bottom eight strikeout rate against righties all season (20.2% - 19.7% over the last two weeks). And they’ve only struck out 25% of the time against power pitchers this season.

FanDuel. Jumping on this Paul Skenes line now, even though the Pirates are in the middle of Game 1. I like how the double header is setting up, with lefty Andrew Heaney struggling and the Pirates likely to deploy the bullpen more than they’d like. Skenes missed on this line last game, but had been over in his five previous starts. The Tigers are a middle of the pack strikeout team, but do struggle versus power pitching (29% K%). They’ll also likely go lefty heavy, which is Skenes better split, and the more strikeout prone Jake Rogers will start behind the dish.

FanDuel. Would bet this up to -155. Let’s head back to fading lefties versus Marlins well. After successfully fending off Jesus Luzardo last night, Miami will face Ranger Suarez. The Phillies’ southpaw pitches to contact, with a whiff rate in the 20th percentile. The Marlins called plus swinging strike rate is the seventh lowest over the last 30 days, and are running less than a 20% K% versus lefties over the same time period.

FanDuel. Since fully ramping up, Robbie Ray has cleared this line in nine of his twelve starts. His advanced metrics have rebounded back to his pre-injury form - Ray’s 29.5% called plus swinging strike rate over the last ten weeks has him in the 87th percentile of qualified pitchers - and his whiff rate alone is fourth highest. He’ll get the Guardians, who have really struggled against southpaws all season, with a 25% strikeout rate and only a .623 OPS.

DraftKings. Casey Mize has helped to solidify the Tigers rotation behind ace Tarik Skubal this season. Pitching to a 2.95 ERA, the righty has started to fulfill the promise he showed as the first overall draft pick in 2018. That being said, given his lengthy injury history, the first-place Tigers are not looking to push Mize innings-wise, to keep him fresh for the stretch run. Mize is under this line in seven of eleven starts this season, averaging out at 85 pitches per start. While the Pirates aren’t a powerhouse offense, they are patient, with the second lowest chase rate. And likely to start six right handed bats, the Pirates to play into Mize’s worse split (.811 OPS allowed).

DraftKings. Playable to -155. Jesus Luzardo has remained under this strikeout line in nine of his fourteen starts. He’ll get a sneaky tough matchup tonight against the Marlins. Miami’s revamped lineup has been very strikeout resistant of late, especially against lefties with a 19.1% K% over the last month.

DraftKings. Lucas Giolito has failed to clear this line in six of his eight starts this season. Coming back from an elbow injury, his secondary pitches haven’t drawn the swing and misses they had pre-injury. His whiff rate is in the 12th percentile, and his called plus swinging strike rate of 24.5% is his lowest since 2017. The Mariners ebb and flow with their strikeouts, but right now we’re catching them hot. Seattle only has a 20% K% over the last two weeks versus righties, and a .743 OPS. The Red Sox bullpen is in good shape too, so not expecting GIolito’s pitch count to be pushed.

DraftKings. Even though we’re on to Game 5, I still think the books are undervaluing Chet Holmgren’s combined points and assists line. Holmgren has joined Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams in playing big minutes. The big man is coming off 35 and 37 minute performances the last two games, as the Thunder continue to shorten their rotation. Holmgren has cleared this line in nine of ten games with 30+ minutes in these playoffs, and in 17 of 22 games in total this season.

DraftKings. Despite his clutch shot making, I’m looking to fade the Tyrese Haliburton on his points plus assists line. Haliburton has only cleared this line in one of the four games so far this series - Game 3 in Indiana. Haliburton’s production has dipped on the road all season, and has stayed under this line in six of ten road playoff games. The Thunder will continue to use elite defenders Luke Dort and Cason Wallace at the point of attack to take away Haliburton’s looks. His time of possession and drives are both down in the Finals, despite a spike in his front court touches - the pressure has forced him into getting rid of the ball quickly.