FanDuel. Jalen Duren struggled mightily against the Magic, averaging 20 combined points plus rebounds. It was a brutal matchup for the big man, one I’m sure he (and the Pistons as a whole) are happy to be done with. Now, Duren will face a Cavs team he’s had much more success against. And let’s not forget, the Pistons center averaged 30 points plus rebounds this season, so we’re getting a nice discount on this line. The Cavs defense excels at stopping ball-handlers (which Orlando did not) and Tobias Harris has a much tougher matchup in this series. I think Duren rebounds in this round (pun intended) - I have him projected around 29 points plus rebounds.
DraftKings. Taj Bradley has been a solid piece in the Twins rotation. With 35 hits allowed in 41 innings, Bradley is under this line in 5/7 starts. His expected batting average allowed of .238 sits above average for qualified starting pitchers, and he’s been particularly solid against left-handed hitters. Versus southpaws, Bradley has only allowed 17 hits in 90 plate appearances, by virtue of his splitter, which lefties are 1/17 against. The Nationals will start 6-7 lefties today, and are a well-below team in terms of hitting for average. This season, against righties, Washington is hitting .222 - and an even worse .194 over the last two weeks. Look for Bradley to keep the Nats bats at bay tonight.
FanDuel (1.5u). I’ve been a big Randy Vasquez fan early on this season. The right-hander dropped his arm angle and tweaked his repertoire, which has resulted in increased velocity and spin, and thus, more swings and misses than he’s produced in his MLB career to date. With 34 strikeouts in 33.2 innings (a nearly 25% K%), Vasquez has cleared this line in 5/6 starts, and will face a Giants lineup that’s been strikeout prone of late (24% over the last 2 weeks against righties), and not hitting well either (.633 OPS within the same subset).
FanDuel. This is a nice spot to back Yankees phenom Can Schlittler. The right hander is amid a breakout campaign in which he’s pitched at a Cy Young level: 1.51 ERA, 2.38 xERA, 49 Ks in 41.2 IP, and a baseball savant page littered with red. He pumps the zone, consistently finding himself in two strike counts, which should play in his favor tonight against the Orioles. Baltimore has the second highest called plus swinging strike rate as a team this season (28.8%), and a gaudy 30% K% against power pitchers. And the Orioles bats have been significantly worse on the road this season overall, especially against righties (27% K% and a .599 OPS over 403 plate appearances). Take the over on Schlittler’s K’s tonight.
DraftKings. Shane Baz has been knocked around this season, allowing 40 hits in 34 innings. His opponent batting average allowed is .301, with the xBA being .268 - even with an expected regression, he’d still be well below the major league average. He’s particularly struggled against lefties, allowing a staggering 26 hits in 85 plate appearances, as hitters have crushed both his four-seamer and curveball. The Yankees likely trot out six lefties tonight, and that doesn’t include Ben Rice, who left the game early yesterday, or Aaron Judge (4/10 with two homers off Baz).
FanDuel. This is really just a numbers play for me. Donovan Mitchell has been at 4.8 rebounds or better per 36 minutes in the regular season each of the last three seasons. He’s cleared this line in five of six games this series, and 17/22 of playoff games with 30+ minutes over the last three seasons. Rebound stats can be variable - but I like the notion of an effort stat for a star player, at home, in a close out game, especially at plus odds.
Caesar’s. Jarrett Allen has remained under this line in all six games this series in regulation. He’s seen his minutes dwindle, as the Cavs have employed more small lineups in crucial situations. And if the Raptors continue to run lineups with a front line of Scottie Barnes and Collins Murray-Boyles, look for the Cavs to counter without their center.
DraftKings. I’m riding the wave with Collins Murray-Boyles. The Raptors rookie has cleared this points line in five of six games this series, and has been the most consistent of the Raptors role players. With Brandon Ingram doubtful and Jakob Poeltl largely ineffective, CMB should see his minutes push past 30 once again (he had 35 regulation minutes in Game 6). Leading the Raptors in paint touches, and third in usage sans Ingram, look for CMB to continue his postseason surge.
DraftKings. Maybe the only player on the Magic who performed above expectations in Game 6 was Tristan da Silva. The forward provided a bit of a spark off the bench with 10 points and 6 boards in a series-high 23 minutes. Da Silva was actually a starter for the Magic without Franz Wagner for most of the season, only being replaced in the playoffs by Jamal Cain. With the Magic struggling mightily to score, I see them turning more to da Silva, and potentially away from Cain. This bet is a bit variable, because it comes down to a role player’s minutes projection in a game 7, but in 18-22 minutes, I have da Silva closer to 11 combined points plus rebounds.
FanDuel. Last offseason, Duncan Robinson was brought to this Pistons team to space the floor with his elite three point shooting. In this series, he’s matched his regular season average of 41% from downtown, while clearing this line in 5/6 games, on seven attempts per contest. The volume is similar to his regular season output, in comparable minutes - but the kicker for Game 7 is that I expect more playing time for the sharpshooter. The Pistons shortened their rotations in Game 6, as they’ve received minimal bench contributions in this series, especially on the wing. And despite the Magic’s stout regular season numbers against catch and shoot oppportunities, Robinson is still averaging 5.2 open looks per game. I love the value at plus odds.
FanDuel. This is a great spot to back the Mets rookie. Nolan McLean has racked up 45 strikeouts in just 35.1 innings, clearing this line in 5/6 starts. His advanced stats tell the part too - his called plus swinging strike rate of 32% is sixth highest amongst qualified pitchers, with six pitches in which he’s able to produce strikeouts. It’s an ideal matchup against the Angels who’ve come out of a hot streak and are K’ing at a 30% rate with a .641 OPS against righties the last two weeks. McLean will also see 5-6 righties, which is his better split (42% K% and a .201 wOBA). The juice is worth the squeeze at 6.5, as I have him projected at 8 K’s.
FanDuel. I like Michael King on his strikeout line tonight. Typically dominant at home, King has 11 punchouts in 11 innings at Petco Park this season, while pitching to an 0.82 ERA. The White Sox bats have been hot, but do still have several plus targets for King scattered in the lineup.
FanDuel. VJ Edgecombe leads the 76ers in total rebounds these playoffs, averaging 7.0 per game, and clearing this line in four of six games. It’s a great matchup for the rookie as the Celtics shoot a ton of three-pointers, which typically produce longer rebound chances, a plus for wings, such as Edgecombe. VJ is also not typically matched up defensively against Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown, leaving him free to crash. Look for the rookie to contribute on the glass in Game 7.
DraftKings. Even with Jayson Tatum ruled out, I don’t see that changing Derrick White’s role in terms of rebounds. His job defensively is to guard Tyrese Maxey, which he’s done for over 62% of his matchup minutes this series. The result has been 2.8 rebounds per game, on 5.5 chances. Plus, in full games without Jayson Tatum and with Jaylen Brown this season, White averaged 4.6 rebounds per 36 minutes. Against the Joel Embiid led 76ers (which leads to less rebound chances due to more turnovers and more free throws), I like White to stay under. I’d bet this to -152.
Caesar’s. The Sixers are peaking, both in their play, but most importantly, their health. Joel Embiid looks fully recovered from his appendectomy, and Philadelphia has quickly re-calibrated with their big man back in the fold. And while the Celtics role players have been commended for stepping up this season, they’ve largely been outplayed by Philly’s trio of Paul George, VJ Edgecombe and Kelly Oubre. Hanging over this game will also be Jayson Tatum’s health, as he left Game 6 early with a calf issue, and is now questionable with knee stiffness. I’ll ride the momentum here and take the points with the underdog, especially in a Game 7 atmosphere where points and possessions will be at a premium.