Caesar’s / MGM. Javier Assad has pitched to a 3.86 ERA while only allowing 57 hits in 67.1 innings, while bouncing between the rotation and bullpen. Even though the underlying metrics for Assad aren’t ideal (specifically his .269 xBA), there is a significant edge on this line today. For one, Assad has not started in almost three weeks, with only 32 and 26-pitch bullpen outings over the last ten days. And even when Assad does start, he’s only allowing a hit every 19 pitches. Even if the latter regresses to 17, his average the last two seasons, there’s not enough room with a likely 75-80 pitch count cap today. To top it all off, the Cardinals are hitting .215 off righties over the last month.