I like the Mariners in this spot with Bryan Woo on the mound. Michael King has been good through three starts but I do expect some regression and the Mariners' bats are hot right now, scoring 29 runs over their last four games. I took Seattle on Friday mentioning they lost a bunch of games by one run and that the breaks would start going their way soon. Since then, the Mariners won four straight over the Astros and I like them to stay hot on Tuesday.

This line is still 5.5 at BetMGM. It's 6.5 at plus money at most other books. I would take the over at either number. Nathan Eovaldi has posted seven strikeouts in two of his first three starts this season. I also like that after two rough outings he looked much better in his last start against Seattle where he allowed just two runs over 6.0 innings. This A's lineup has already struck out 109 times versus right-handed pitchers this season. I think Eovaldi gets to at least seven K's for the third time in four starts. Play up to 6.5.

I expected the Mariners to start the season hot but that hasn't happened. Seattle is just 4-9 and enters Friday's matchup with Houston losers of five straight. However, four of those losses have come by one run and I expect the breaks to start going the Mariners' way soon. Houston has lost four straight themselves, allowing 35 runs over that stretch. Look for Seattle's bats to get going tonight and Emerson Hancock to do enough on the mound after two quality starts where he allowed just one run over 12.2 innings.

Last play of the CBB season. I think both Final Four games will be tight but like getting 2.5 with UConn here. I bet this game earlier in the season when the Huskies were slight favorites and won 74-61. Both teams are a lot different now, but I don't think this is the worst matchup for UConn and its physical style. Hopefully the officials don't have a quick whistle and let the teams play. Good luck and thanks for following this season!

Fading Minnesota starter Bailey Ober has been one of the most profitable wagers in any sport recently. Going back to last season, the Twins are just 3-15 in Ober's last 18 starts. Minnesota will need Ober to eat up some innings here because the Twins used four relievers in Thursday's 5-1 win over Kansas City. Rays' starter Joe Boyle had a promising first outing, allowing just three hits and two runs over 6.0 innings vs. St. Louis. I like Tampa's bats to get going after scoring only seven runs in its three-game series against the Brewers.

I'm taking a shot with Gunnar Henderson over 1.5 total bases Wednesday at plus money. Henderson has had success against Nathan Eovaldi with seven hits in 10 career at-bats. He's recorded seven total bases in his last two games and with the wind blowing out at Camden Yards today, I like Henderson's chances to go over this total.

Justin Verlander is making his first start with the Tigers in 3,134 days. While that's a great story, I'm going to fade the 43-year-old on the road. The Tigers played on Sunday and used a couple of key relief pitchers, while Arizona has a rested bullpen after getting the day off. Michael Soroka is healthy and if he can eat up 5 or 6 innings on Monday, the Diamondbacks should be in good shape once the game gets into the bullpens.

One thing I learned over the years is to never decide on teams I'm going to bet or fade in the NCAA Tournament before seeing the bracket. Tennessee is a great example. I was looking to bet against Tennessee early but they got two favorable matchups versus Miami, OH and Virginia. Now the Vols are facing Iowa State without its best player in Joshua Jefferson. I don't think Jefferson plays but if he does he won't be close to 100% against Tennessee's physical front line. This probably comes down to which team protects the basketball. Both defenses thrive on creating turnovers and converting them into easy baskets. I believe we are looking at a one possession win either way. I'll take the 4.5 with Tennessee.

This number dropped to 9.5 at BetMGM. I think it might get there at other books too but I'm going to hop on it now. These two teams are going to race up and down the court. Both rank top 25 in pace, so it will come down to which defense gets more stops. That’s where Michigan has a big edge. Alabama got by Hofstra and a short-handed Texas Tech squad. Michigan is an entirely different challenge though. The Wolverines rank sixth in offensive efficiency and have athletic big men who can run the floor. Alabama will score, but the Wolverines will score more. I like Michigan to pull away and win by double digits.

This is a tough matchup for Arkansas. The Hogs really struggle to defend near the basket and now have to deal with Arizona's big frontline. We know Arkansas will score. The problem will be on the other end of the court. Arkansas ranks 257 in two-point percentage defense. Meanwhile, Arizona scores 57 percent of its points from two-point range. The Wildcats will simply get too many easy baskets. Also, Arkansas has only beaten one KenPom Top 15 team since Jan. 3 (Vanderbilt twice). They have been beating up on inferior opponents. I think Arizona wins by at least eight points.

Nick Pivetta is someone I'm looking to fade on the road this season but still like him at home in a pitcher friendly park early in the year. Toss in Tarik Skubal on the other side and San Diego still sporting one of MLB's better bullpens, and I think we get under seven runs in the opener.

I'm jumping on the Orioles early with Trevor Rogers scheduled for Opening Day. I think this closes around -180. If Rogers pitches like he did last season, getting him -162 at home will be a distant memory. I also think the O's rebound in a big way this season, while I have the Twins rated as one of the worst teams in the AL. A little Opening Day value on Baltimore.

This tournament is going like I thought with the top seeds dominating. I don't see that changing much on Sunday. Arizona was my highest rated team entering the tournament, while Utah State won a bad MWC this year. The Wildcats should own the offensive boards and live at the free throw line. Arizona also has a big edge defensively in this matchup. Mountain West teams have been horrible as underdogs in the NCAA Tournament, going just 16-41-3 ATS in that role since 2001. I think the Cats win a 85-68 kind of game to advance into the Sweet 16. Lay the 11.5.

I gave out this over late Thursday on Discord when a couple books opened at 158.5. That was an awful number and it lasted three minutes, so I understand most people didn't get it. I would still play 161.5 for a half unit. I make the total here 163.5. This should be one of the more entertaining games in Round 2. Both teams rank Top 25 in tempo, have athletic big men, and shooters all over the court. It feels like a 90-78 kind of game. I gave out two totals this season. They won by 28 and 20 points. This is my last one but if it wins easy again, I would like to be called "Tommy Totals" for the rest of the year.

I like Cal Baptist but they drew a tough matchup with Kansas. Baptist is a good defensive team, although they can struggle to score. I was hoping they would draw an opponent that gives up a lot of easy baskets like Alabama. Instead, they drew Kansas, who is rated 10th in defensive efficiency on KenPom. Play the Jayhawks at -14.5 or less.