Sometimes styles make fights and that's been the case in this series. Toronto has won five straight over the Lightning and is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings. That includes going 4-1 in Tampa Bay. The moneyline of around -200 is a little high and that is allowing us to grab +1.5 at just -125. The other factor here is the first night back from the Olympic break can produce some sluggish games. I'll trust the recent trends and take the Maple Leafs to keep the game close.

I like this spot at home for Texas. One thing teams must do to have a chance against Florida is compete on the boards. The Horns are one of the few opponents who match up well there. Texas ranks fourth in the SEC in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. It doesn't get talked about much because they are winning but Florida doesn't shoot well from the perimeter and is below average at the free throw line. If Texas can compete on the glass and limit easy second-chance opportunities, I think they can stay within this number at home. Bet down to +5.5.

I love this spot for Wisconsin returning home after a bad loss to Ohio State without Austin Rapp. Rapp is expected to return on Sunday and that's important for a Wisconsin team that isn't very deep. Greg Gard slammed his squad for not playing physical against Ohio State, so I expect a better effort here. Iowa struggles to score when they aren't creating turnovers. The Badgers are one of the best in the country at not turning the ball over, which means the shaky Iowa offense needs to make shots consistently. Wisconsin is 5-1 coming off a loss, winning those games by an average of nine points. I took the ML (DK) for a half unit but would also bet Wisconsin at -2.5 or less.

Boston is rolling right now. The Terriers have won five straight games by an average of 15 points. One of those wins was a 85-58 route of Colgate. BU is doing it with offense. The Terriers ranks first in the Patriot League in offensive efficiency, two-point field goal percentage, and three-point field goal percentage. Lehigh will need to shoot well from the field because second-chance opportunities could be limited. The Mountain Hawks are the worst offensive rebounding team in the Patriot League, while Boston ranks first in defensive rebounding percentage. Lehigh won a 93-91 OT thriller on Jan. 14 but BU is a different team now. I like the Terriers to extend the win streak to six. I grabbed the ML for a half unit.

I'm going to take a shot with the Sooners here at home. Texas A&M feels like a team that peaked in January. The Aggies are 1-4 in their last five games with the lone victory a three-point win over a bad Ole Miss team. Oklahoma is having a tough season but the Sooners are still fighting with recent wins over Vanderbilt and Georgia. They got blasted by Tennessee but that is an awful matchup for OU. The Sooners lost by seven in the first meeting back in January where they had 17 turnovers. If OU takes better care of the ball tonight, I think they win the rematch at home.

DK opened Houston -3.5 with other books sitting at 4.5. I'm not sure where the number will go but I'm happy with 3.5. It's up to you if you want to wait for a potentially better line but I don't know if this gets below -3. It's late in the season so I don't have a bunch of statistical edges for the Cougars. I like the spot for Houston at home and I think they are the better team. Bet up to 4.5.

I think BYU could be in trouble on Wednesday. Arizona is coming off two losses and the Cougars are now without Richie Saunders for the rest of the season. Saunders averages 18 points and 5.8 rebounds, so he will be missed, especially considering the Cougars aren't very deep. BYU ranks 309th in bench minutes on KenPom. Arizona gave up a big lead in the first meeting but led 44-31 at halftime. I expect the Wildcats to jump out fast again at home. I'll lay 6.5 with Arizona in the first half to avoid a late backdoor cover. Bet up to 7.5.

This line opened at 6.5 but I'll take a shot on Virginia Tech now that it moved to 8.5. The Hokies are coming off a blowout loss to Florida State in a game they led at halftime. Va Tech couldn't make a basket in the second half and the Noles shot 78% from the field. FSU used a 21-2 run to outscore the Hokies 53-27. That crazy half is creating some value in a tough spot for Miami. The Canes won a court storming game at home over UNC then got by NC State in the final seconds Saturday. Miami tends to play up and down to its competition, while Virginia Tech is 7-0 ATS on the road. Take the Hokies at +7.5 or better.

Villanova is one of the most undervalued teams in CBB, so this is the first time I have bet against the Wildcats this season. However, I think the opening number of 6.5 is a little high here. Xavier has covered five straight at home, going 4-1 straight up over that span. The only loss was 88-83 to St. John's. I like this Villanova squad but see the game going down to the wire and if that's the case, the Wildcats shooting under 70% from the free throw line could be a factor. I took 6.5 at DK. Bet down to +5.5, no lower.

I like this spot for Marist. The Red Foxes return home after two straight road losses to Fairfield and Merrimack. Marist is 10-2 on its home court this season and has the top defense in the MAAC. Siena beat the Red Foxes earlier in the season but Marist had won the previous five matchups and I think their defense gets it done here. I'll be at this game, so hopefully that will bring us some luck. Bet the Marist ML or up to -2 on the spread.

This feels like a smash spot for Tennessee. One thing I look for in the final months are teams likely to make a coaching change. Matt McMahon is probably out at LSU and I have to wonder if the players are focused on the rest of the season or the transfer portal. The Tigers are just 2-9 in SEC play and coming off back-to-back home losses to Georgia and Arkansas by a combined 41 points. LSU could also be without leading scorer Dedan Thomas for the fourth straight game. I wish the Vols shot free throws a little better but dominating the offensive glass and getting easy baskets off turnovers should be enough to cover 11.5. Bet up to 13.5.

This feels like a good time to buy low on Texas A&M. The Aggies fought to the wire against Alabama but that 100-97 loss appeared to take a lot out of them. A&M had no juice in the first half versus Florida, scoring just 19 points. They did wake up and score 48 in the second half but it was too little, too late. This is a bad matchup for a Missouri team that struggles with turnovers and guarding the three-point line. I think Texas A&M rebounds from two straight losses with a big win at home here. There are still a couple of 6.5's out there. Bet up to 7.5. No higher.

I'm taking the low-hanging fruit here. It's not just that Duke is coming off a loss to UNC, it's how they lost. The Blue Devils controlled most of that game before going ice cold in the final seven minutes. Duke gets the perfect opponent to take out its frustrations. Pitt is coming off losses of 20 (Virginia) and 19 (SMU). This is also a bad matchup for the Panthers. Duke should score at will near the basket versus a Pitt defense that ranks last in the ACC in two-point percentage and create a lot of turnovers that lead to easy buckets. I never lay this many points on the road in conference play but this feels like a Duke blowout win. Play up to -16.5.

TreVeyon Henderson only got three carries in the AFC Championship versus Denver but this number feels like an overreaction to that game. It's clear Rhamondre Stevenson is the Patriots lead back in the playoffs, although Henderson still easily cleared this total against the Chargers and Texans when he got 21 combined carries. Henderson is also a big-play threat, so he doesn't need a lot of carries to reach 17 yards. The rookie RB went over this number in 16 of 20 games (80%). I'll take a shot on a total I believe is a few yards too low in the Super Bowl.

The Seahawks' defense is tough but the one area the Patriots can exploit is utilizing the tight ends. Seattle allowed the sixth most yards to tight ends during the regular season. In two playoff games, Jake Tonges put up 59 yards and Colby Parkinson went for 62. Hunter Henry went over 36.5 yards 11 times this season and I expect him to be a big part of the Pats' offensive gameplan. Look for this number to go up in the next two weeks, so I recommend taking it early.