This is a really tough game to handicap. A lot of people will side with UConn and I don't blame them. However, once the line hit +7, it was high enough for me to take a shot on Purdue. I make UConn -5 in this matchup. Purdue has faced the second-toughest schedule in the country per KenPom and went 8-1-1 (89%) against the spread versus ranked opponents this season. In almost any other year Purdue would be a favorite in this game given its resume. UConn is a machine, although +7 feels a bit high here. I'll take the points and hope the Boilermakers can keep it close. Good luck, thanks for following this season.

There's not much value betting the Final Four favorites but once I got an 8.5 with Purdue, I pulled the trigger. NC State has been on an amazing run, although they just don't match up well with Zach Edey in the paint. DJ Burns is a beast but he's more of an offensive player who can be a liability on defense. Mohamed Diarra is likely to get into early foul trouble guarding Edey and that will put the Wolfpack at a big disadvantage. NC State ranked last in the ACC in defensive rebounding percentage and opponent's free throw attempts per game. That's a recipe for disaster vs. Purdue. Boilermakers pull away and win by double-digits.

I do think Illinois will test UConn in what should be an entertaining, high-scoring game. These are the two top ranked offenses on KenPom and while UConn's defense is very good, Illinois is one of the few teams that has the ingredients to score in the 70s against them. The Illini can compete on the offensive glass, get to the foul line often and they don't turn the ball over. On the other side, UConn will feast on Illinois' weak perimeter defense. The Illini rank a distant 227th in three-point field goal percentage defense. In a game that features two elite offenses, I'll play the over 154.5.

When the brackets were released, I circled this potential spot for UNC. Alabama still has the same issues it did when entering the Tournament. However, the Tide got a perfect Round 1 matchup then drew Grand Canyon instead of Saint Mary's in Round 2. Let's look at those two wins. Charleston scored 96 points and Grand Canyon shot 2-for-20 from three and was down just one point with four minutes left. I think Bama's luck runs out in the Sweet 16. UNC will live at the foul line, dominate the offensive boards, and beat the Tide in transition. Bama has struggled vs. top teams all season and I don't see that changing. I make UNC -6, so grab them early at -4.

I'll take a shot with Dayton getting 10 points here. I make this line Arizona -7. Dayton has the makeup of teams that have given Arizona issues this season. They slow the pace and rank Top 30 in transition points allowed per game. I do worry about the Wildcats' size but Dayton should be able to limit possessions and get open looks beyond the arc vs. Arizona's leaky perimeter defense. I think the Flyers can hang around and cover the big number.

I don't bet a ton of totals but this number seems off to me because of the Wisconsin name. Yes, the Badgers still play at a slow pace on paper but this version of Wisconsin doesn't mind picking it up a bit when the tempo dictates. James Madison plays at the 71st fastest pace and I think they will be able to speed up this game. Wisconsin struggles to guard the perimeter and JMU fouls a lot. The Badgers rank Top 40 in free-throw percentage. I see a viable path for this game being played in the 70s. Not sure which way the number will go but I make the total 147, so I'll grab the early 144.5.

I'm not a fan of the Alabama team overall but this is a dream draw for the Tide. Charleston is going to play fast and shoot a ton of threes but here's the problem: Alabama plays the exact same way and has more talent. The Tide have two major weaknesses. They turn the ball over and foul a ton. But Charleston doesn't force turnovers and rarely gets to the foul line. The other thing flying under the radar is this is the first time in a month Alabama will be fully healthy with Latrell Wrightsell back in the lineup. I'm in the minority here and I'm not sure where the line goes but I got a -9, so I hit it. Grab anything under 10.

Love the Drake in this matchup. The Bulldogs had Miami on the ropes last year before blowing a lead in the final two minutes. Now Drake is back and there's a lot to like. The Bulldogs are the top defensive rebounding team in CBB and they have a star in guard Tucker DeVries, who can shoot the lights out. Washington State overachieved in a weak Pac-12 this year. The Cougars do a lot of damage on the offensive boards and Drake should be able to negate that. Bottom line: I think the wrong team is favored. I make Drake -2 in this matchup, so grab them early. I won't be surprised if the Bulldogs close as favorites.

I typically don't lay big numbers but after breaking down all the games, Long Beach has the worst matchup of any team in my opinion. Everything the Beach does, Arizona does a lot better. Long Beach plays at a fast pace and is going to run with the Wildcats. That is a recipe for disaster. The Beach also has a poor transition defense. Again, recipe for disaster. The Wildcats are going to own the offensive glass and get a ton of open looks. Again...well, you get it. Lastly, Arizona was dominant when coming off a loss this season, winning the next game by an average of 20 points. The Cats got caught last year, so they won't overlook the Beach. Expect a blowout.

Will discuss this game on The Early Edge at 10 ET. Full analysis up after the show.

Really good game in the WAC tonight between UT Arlington and Tarleton St. Arlington comes in winners of seven straight, while Tarleton is 11-1 in its last 12. The Texans also swept Arlington this year but both games were decided by 2 points. The reason I'm backing the Mavericks tonight is because they have been the WAC's most dominant team over the last month. During its 7-game win streak, Arlington is beating opponents by an average of 16 points. If the Mavericks can limit turnovers, I think they get the win and advance to the WAC title game.

Penn State's dominance over the Hoosiers the last two seasons is well documented. The Nittany Lions have won four straight over Indiana by an average of 11.5 points. I like the way the Hoosiers are playing though since the return of guard Xavier Johnson. Indiana closed the year winning four straight. The Hoosiers also have a big edge in the paint. Indiana gets 61% of its scoring from two-point range and ranks first in the Big 10 in two-point FG%. Penn St ranks last in two-point FG% defense. I make the Hoosiers favorites here. I think they dominate on the boards and win as small dogs.

I'm not 100% sure where this line will go but I'm grabbing Toledo on the opener of -4. I make the Rockets -6 on a neutral court. Toledo beat Kent St twice this season by 15 and 16 points. That doesn't mean the Rockets will win a third time but Toledo has some significant matchup advantages. The Rockets score 76% of their points in conference play from free throws and two-point baskets. Kent St ranks 10th in the MAC in both opponent's free throw attempts and two-point FG% defense. This isn't the same Kent St team as in year's past. I'll back the Rockets at a short number to get the season sweep.

I gave out UMass Lowell over Bryant as a 3.5-point favorite on Feb. 29 and they cruised to a 22-point win. The River Hawks have now beaten Bryant four straight times over the last two years by an average of 16 points. They topped 80 points in all four games. This is just a bad matchup for Bryant. The Bulldogs play fast and commit a lot of fouls. In the two games this season, Lowell went 43-of-54 from the free throw line. The River Hawks attempt the most foul shots in the America East, so I expect more of the same at home on Tuesday. Look for UMass Lowell's dominance over Bryant to continue.

I thought the survivor of the Northern Kentucky-Wright St quarterfinal matchup would go on to win the Horizon League Tournament. NKU won a 99-97 OT thriller, so I'm sticking to my prediction. The difference in this game could come down to the Norse's ball pressure defense. Milwaukee tends to be sloppy with the basketball and NKU not only forces a lot of turnovers but converts those miscues into points. Darrin Horn's teams usually play their best ball late in the year and this season is no different. The Norse have won 7 of 9 and I like their late surge to continue on Monday night.