Thomas's Past Picks
This is my top Super Bowl prop. If you follow me on social media, you know last year my top prop was Kyle Juszczyk over 1.5 receiving yards that cashed on the second play of the game. This one won't be that easy but I like DeJean to go over 4.5 tackles/assists. The Eagles play nickel defense 82% of the time since Week 6 and I think he'll be around Kelce in the slot. DeJean has gone over this total in 5 straight and 9 of 10. During the 5-game stretch he's averaging 7.2 T/A. I'll lay some juice now because I think it goes up to 5.5. First play since I joined SL last year I'm posting for more than 1 unit. Good Luck.
I think the Chiefs stopping the Bills' Tush Push is overblown. That wasn't the Tush Push. Allen takes a step back then goes to the left. No one is even pushing him. I have no idea what that was to be honest but it's not the same play the Eagles made famous. If the Eagles are inside the three-yard line, Hurts will get multiple chances to score. He's scored a rushing TD in 12 games this season. I think the odds for Hurts should be closer to -130, so I'll take -115 at FD.
I've had this game circled for Indiana because I like the spot. A lot going on there with Mike Woodson stepping down but this is actually a pretty good matchup for the Hoosiers. They are one of the few teams in the country that has the size to deal with Michigan down low. The Wolverines haven't been blowing teams out either with their last four wins all coming by four points or less. The Hoosiers have lost four straight but three of those games have been on the road. They play much better at Assembly Hall. I expect a tight game here. Take Indiana +3 or better.
I'm taking Monmouth on the ML because I think it should be closer to -225. The value is too good to pass up. Monmouth has played only six home games but the Hawks are 5-1 on their home court and get a reeling Hampton squad Thursday. The Pirates are 3-7 in 2025 with the wins coming over lowly Howard, Delaware and North Carolina A&T by a combined eight points. Monmouth has a big edge when it comes to getting to the foul line. The Hawks rank second in the CAA in free-throw scoring rate, while Hampton allows the most foul shots per game to opponents. Hampton might be without leading rebounder Kyrese Mullen for the second straight game too. I'll back the Hawks to win.
I'm grabbing the Ole Miss ML early here. I like the spot and matchup for the Rebels. Kentucky with the worst defense in the conference and Ole Miss should force a ton of turnovers. Sounds like Lamont Butler is still out for the Wildcats. I'll have a full write-up on this game in my Tuesday picks article. Try to get spread -3.5 or less if you don't play ML.
This feels like a good spot to back the Huskies. I wanted +7 and FanDuel opened up 7.5. I don't think the line will go any higher, so I'll grab it early. Marquette generates a lot of points off turnovers, but the Huskies aren’t overly sloppy with the basketball. UConn also has a rebounding edge on both ends of the court. Limiting turnovers and controlling the boards is the recipe to beating Marquette. This isn’t an awful matchup for UConn, and the Huskies have dominated the series of late, winning eight of the last 10. I'd play UConn at +6 or better.
There are still a couple of Tennessee -2.5's out there. Try to get -4 or better (DK has -4). Spot of the season so far for the Vols. They got blasted by Florida earlier this year and have beaten the Gators seven straight at home. If the Vols can't win this one, we bury them for good. If you can't get the -4 or less, play Tennessee in ML parlays.
Ole Miss was a strong lean but the more I think about it the more I like it as an official play at this number. Great spot to buy low on the Rebels. I think they can shut down Texas with their pressure defense. Take Rebels -7 or less.
I like this spot for West Virginia at home. Houston is coming off that emotional double OT win over Kansas and now faces a Mountaineers team it just beat by 16 two weeks ago. West Virginia has lost two straight but this is still a team that has shown it can beat quality opponents with wins over Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas and Iowa State. Houston's last two Big 12 road games have been competitive. I expect that trend to continue. Not sure where the line will go but I'll take the Mountaineers +8.5 at home. Try to get +8 or higher.
This number is inflated but I don't see any scenario where Allen doesn't use his legs whenever possible with a Super Bowl berth on the line. Allen went for 55 in the first meeting and the Chiefs defense allowed the eighth most rushing yards to quarterbacks during the regular season. I think Allen can get to 50 here. Me, and the rest of the civilized world.
This total feels low for Cook. He's carried the ball 17 and 23 times in Buffalo's two playoff games. Last season, Cook had 18 carries in both of his postseason games. The only way I don't see Cook being a big part of the Bills' offense is if they are getting blown out. I'm not expecting that to happen, so I'll take Cook over 13.5 carries. I won't be surprised if this closes at 15.5 on Sunday.
Allen is -115 to score a touchdown on Sunday. I think those are pretty good odds considering if the Bills get close, they will use their version of the "Tush Push." Allen has scored 11 rushing touchdowns in his last 10 games and I think he's a good bet to score again in the AFC Championship Game.
Jalen Hurts is wearing a brace on Sunday after hurting his knee in the Divisional Round. I think that will impact his running more than passing against a suspect Washington secondary. Brown has been quiet with just 24 yards in two playoff games. However, he went for 97 and 65 in two games against the Commanders this season. I think Brown wakes up on Sunday.
Miami is 1-15 in its last 16 games with the lone win coming over Presbyterian on Dec. 15. The Canes have been particularly bad lately, losing their last five games by an average of 28 points. This is also an awful spot for Miami playing its second-straight game on the West Coast. Cal is no great shakes but the Golden Bears have one of the biggest offensive rebounding edges I’ve seen all season in this game. Thought this line would open 3-4 points higher. Grabbing -5.5 early. Good up to -8
Xavier has been a tough luck team this season, losing six games by eight points or less. One of those losses came to UConn is OT when the Musketeers were without Zach Freemantle. I wrote an article this week talking about fading teams on the road in conference games with poor defensive efficiency ratings. UConn ranks a dismal 132nd in defensive efficiency. The Huskies shoot a ton of threes and Xavier ranks first in Big East games in three-point FG percentage defense. Meanwhile, UConn is one of the worst teams in the country defending threes. The Huskies also foul a lot and Xavier is tops in the Big East in free throw attempts. Take Xavier ML or anything up to -2.5 on the spread.