I like this spot at home for Texas. One thing teams must do to have a chance against Florida is compete on the boards. The Horns are one of the few opponents who match up well there. Texas ranks fourth in the SEC in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. It doesn't get talked about much because they are winning but Florida doesn't shoot well from the perimeter and is below average at the free throw line. If Texas can compete on the glass and limit easy second-chance opportunities, I think they can stay within this number at home. Bet down to +5.5.

Texas has been good as an underdog this season, going 7-3 against the spread with outright wins against Vanderbilt and Alabama and good results in coin flip games against Oklahoma and Missouri. The Longhorns can’t overwhelm anyone with size like Florida, but Matas Vokietaitis and Dailyn Swain are effective enough as rebounders to make sure Texas isn’t getting dominated around the rim. Texas’ defensive performance from Georgia on Saturday cannot be replicated if the Longhorns are going to make it a game, so we're counting on an improvement from awful to merely average. But if there’s a spot where the Gators get tripped up before the SEC Tournament, this midweek road game against Sean Miller in Austin looks like a solid spot.