BYU has been my adopted team this year and now that the line has moved from +3.5 to +5.5, it's time to jump right back in. BYU continues to be disrespected in the market in spite of losing just once over their last 12 games. In that time they've taken out Kansas, Iowa State, Arizona, VCU and Wisconsin. Many of their big wins have also been away from home. Both offenses should flourish and while Alabama may be the better team, this is too many points for a team that has a chance to win this game outright.
I don't make a ton of college basketball bets, but when I do, they're usually on BYU. I've been tracking this team all year and I think they can make a deep run. Wisconsin has some impressive wins on their resume, but I'm more impressed with what BYU's wins against very good teams down the stretch. This BYU offense simply doesn't go away and the Badgers don't have the defensive profile to stop it.
The VCU Rams are a trendy Bracket Buster this week, but they're up against an underrated BYU team that has played well all season in the Big 12. VCU is very balanced and have some impressive metrics, but some of that is a product of playing in the A-10. The Rams have the big travel spot and will be in altitude in a likely shootout and that also benefits BYU. I would play this ML up to -135 and I really don't mind laying the 2.5 either.
BYU is one of the hottest teams in the country and have had some extra time to prepare for Iowa State. The Cyclones are a contender when healthy, but I'm willing to gamble that Tamin Lipsey and Keshon Gilbert are not 100% today (Gilbert may not suit up but Lipsey is expected to play). BYU can be relentless on offense, but will need to clean up the turnovers. I expect it to be close down the stretch with BYU having a chance to win this one.
Syracuse has been fairly competitive down the stretch of the season, but they'll be up against a better Seminole team which dispatched Syracuse comfortably earlier in the season. The Seminoles should be able to get plenty of good looks and second-chance opportunities against a porous Syracuse defense, particularly because Malique Ewin is back in the lineup after missing a couple weeks. The Seminoles just beat SMU, and if they beat Syracuse, they get SMU again in the 2nd round. I think they believe they can make some noise in the ACC Tournament and it starts tonight.
These two teams are heading in opposite directions and I think that will continue for at least for one more game. Kansas has lost 2 of 3 since their home win against Iowa State and BYU is surging with back to back wins against West Virginia and Kansas State. BYU now finds itself on the right side of the bubble and this will be a critical win for their resume. The Jayhawk defense will limit BYU, but they haven't been great on the road and I think we see a big win from the home team in Provo.
The Baylor Bears are great at home, but I think the wrong team is favored. I expect Arizona's three point shooting woes to regress to the mean, but more importantly, I expect Arizona to get some easy baskets, especially with Baylor continuing to pile up injuries. Add to that Arizona has done a good job covering spreads lately and you've got a nice spot to take a solid road dog. The Wildcats have lost two tough games in a row and I don't expect the slide to continue.
You're going to hear that this is a classic "let down" spot for Clemson after their big win against Duke, but UNC is simply not a good basketball team and their cover rate has been abysmal. UNC escaped with a narrow win against Pittsburgh on Saturday, but they have struggled all season, particularly on the road. Clemson's defense should get after UNC and turn them over and UNC will need to shoot well to keep up. Clemson pulls away at home.
The pre-finals 'hypothetical' line was at sportsbooks prior to Saturday night's games and it was set at 5.5. As soon as Uconn beat Alabama that line was pounced upon and it's now at 6.5 in many markets. Purdue has had a nice run and they're a good team, but they're not the caliber of Uconn. Uconn has size to deal with Edey on the interior and I think Purdue's guards get swallowed up by Uconn's perimter defense. The boil cools to a simmer on Monday night and the Huskies triumph by 7 or more.
There's no question that Creighton is a solid team that can beat anyone if they are shooting well from beyond the arc, but we've seen plenty of variance when it comes to their outside shooting. I think we'll be on the correct side of that variance against a very athletic Tennessee team. Oregon did a great job containing Creighton in the 2nd half last weekend I think we'll see more of the same tonight against the Volunteers. Creighton is a fundamentally sound team and they matchup very well from an analytics standpoint, but they fail the eye test against the Vols.
Clemson is playing great basketball at the perfect time and now they face an Arizona team that has been very inconsistent this season. Yes, Arizona wins this matchup in most of the offensive and defensive efficiency metrics, but Clemson provides some matchup problems for Arizona as well. I expect Hall, Hunter and Girard to have big games and I expect Clemson to frustrate Arizona into bad shots by slowing the game down. One thing Clemson has been able to do all season is play highly ranked teams tough and I don't expect that to change against Arizona.
Baylor finished the season 3rd in the Big 12 while Clemson finished 5th in the lesser ACC. To Clemson's credit, they did play the top tier of the ACC very tough (UNC/Duke), but they also had some troubling losses down the stretch (ND/BC). Baylor can beat you in a myriad of ways and that includes cleaning up on the boards and perimiter shooting. I also think they have the type of star power than can carry them through big tournament games. I'm not sure which Clemson team we're going to get in this one, but I'm also not sure it matters.
North Texas went on the road a few days ago and beat an LSU team that played very well down the stretch of the season. Seton Hall didn't close the season super strong and I question their motivation in this one relative to North Texas. North Texas won the NIT last year and they exhibited their motivation to win again by going all out against LSU. I expect a similar performance on Saturday. North Texas plays great defense and when they get hot beyond the arc, they are tough to beat. Seton Hall doesn't have the firepower to be a two possession favorite.
Nevada comes in as the hotter team, particularly away from home, and that will serve them well on a neutral court. I'm unimpressed with Dayton's defense down the stretch and that poor defense has resulted in recent losses to Loyola Chicago and Duquesne. Nevada won seven games in a row prior to their MWC loss to Colorado State and I expect the winning to resume as long as Dayton doesn't get super hot from the 3-point line.
LSU was very solid down the stretch as they tinkered with their starting lineup and rotations. Those stretch-run adjustments by head coach Matt McMahon led to wins over Kentucky and South Carolina among others. North Texas plays great defense, but is too reliant on 3 point shooting and I think their offense will sputter at times. LSU beat this North Texas team in November by 4 and LSU is a better team now than they were back then. North Texas won the NIT last year, but I think they're an early exit this year.