Nevada is 10-1 in their last 11 games. The Flyers rely heavily on the three and their offense runs though Daron Holmes II. Dayton offense can go stagnant with all the threes they put up and the Wolfpack defend the arc well. Nevada shoots just as well as the Flyers and played a more difficult non-conference schedule, 10-3 SU as compared to Dayton’s 6-5.

This is Steve Alford's best team at Nevada. The Wolf Pack had won seven straight until a Mountain West Tournament loss, 85-78, to Colorado State. Dayton star DaRon Holmes II is a tremendous post player, but Nevada center Nick Davidson also should have a lot of success against a Flyers defense that has struggled the past seven games. Look for the Wolf Pack's depth to matter late as Nevada wins.

Steve Alford's Nevada clubs have a recent history of peaking early before faltering down the stretch. This year's Wolf Pack won seven down the stretch before giving a lackluster performance in the first round of the conference tournament. Dayton appears to be the mentally tougher team, which will likely prove the difference in this air-tight matchup.

Nevada comes in as the hotter team, particularly away from home, and that will serve them well on a neutral court. I'm unimpressed with Dayton's defense down the stretch and that poor defense has resulted in recent losses to Loyola Chicago and Duquesne. Nevada won seven games in a row prior to their MWC loss to Colorado State and I expect the winning to resume as long as Dayton doesn't get super hot from the 3-point line.

Nevada laid a little bit of an egg defensively against Colorado State during its one-and-done showing in the Mountain West Tournament, and I'm expecting that disappointment will have them dialed in against a talented Dayton team. The Wolf Pack closed the regular season strong with 10 wins in their final 11, while Dayton saw its performance tail off a little bit over the final month of the season.

Steve Alford has a senior-laden Nevada team that has been playing its best ball of the season, winning seven of its last eight. The Wolf Pack do not turn the ball over and takes the ball away with their senior guards. Nevada shoots 47.5% and holds teams to 41.7%. Dayton is No. 3 in 3-point percentage (40.2), but the Wolf Pack's defense and leadership will carry them. Nevada was one of the best cover teams in the nation at 21-11 against-the-spread. Nevada to cover.