Cade Cavalli continues to give the Nationals quality starts...

Can Brandon Pfaadt continue his sparkling run for Arizona?

I'm backing Atlanta's new acquisition, pitcher Tyler Mahle, who has given up only one run in 12 innings since being acquired in early-August. Meanwhile, Minnesota's Zebby Matthews posted a 7.66 ERA in July and a 6.30 ERA thus far in August. With the wind blowing out to right field, look for the Braves left handed power hitters (Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Michael Harris, Ozzie Albies) to crush the homer-prone Matthews (18 home runs allowed in 91 innings). I think Atlanta bounces back Tuesday night on the road.

Pete Alonso is on a ridiculous tear and let's take advantage on Tuesday against the Yankees and Carlos Rodon. Alonso is riding a nine game hitting streak and is 18 for 34 (.529) during that time. The Orioles first baseman has gone over this prop in 8 of those 9 games, including five home runs and seven total extra base hits. Against Carlos Rodon, who returns off the injured list, Alonso is 2 for 10 with a home run in his career. I'll ride the hot streak until it ends, especially at plus money.

I will gladly back the Phillies on the run line at home yet again with Cristopher Sanchez on the hill. The lanky left hander is 10-1 at home this season with a shiny 1.41 ERA. Philadelphia has won each of Sanchez's last five home starts by multiple runs, with a run differential of +34. Marlins hitters are a combined 9 for 53 (.170 average) so I wouldn't expect much from them offensively. Look for the Phillies to raise Janson Junk's 5.35 road ERA and win this one by daylight on Monday night.

Padres hitters are hitting a collective 22 for 52 (.423) against Guardians starter Tanner Bibee lifetime. Cleveland hitters are a combined 13 for 70 (.186) against San Diego starter Casey Mize. The Padres are 16-5 over their last 21 games. The Guardians are 6-16 over their last 22. One team is going in the right direction and the other is not. Plus they have the apparent hitting advantage. I'll take my chances with those trends again on Sunday.

We're getting the combination of an awesome hitter who's on a hot streak and who owns a .600 career lifetime average against the opposing starting pitcher. Over his last six games, Yandy Diaz is 13 for 28 (.464 average) and reached at least two total bases in five of them. Against Trevor Rogers, Diaz is 6 for 10 lifetime with three doubles. Though the Rays have a comfortable 6.5 game lead in the American League East, losing three straight games to the Orioles wouldn't inspire confidence. I think Diaz posts another multi-hit performance and goes well over 1.5 total bases on Sunday.

Since May 30th, the Red Sox are 0-3 when Sonny Gray starts against the Blue Jays and 10-0 when he faces any other team. Such a bizarre stat but it's true. Fortunately, on Saturday the Red Sox are playing the Pirates so backing Gray is a must. Boston has lost 6 of 7 games and needs a win in the worst way. Gray is 14-3 this season, including 5-0 vs. the National League. I'm backing the trends again on Saturday.

Troy Melton continues to dominate for the Tigers this season. Detroit has won 11 of his 13 starts in 2026 and Melton sits at 7-1 with a sparkling 1.46 ERA. He's only given up more than two earned runs once, but not since June 9th. Current White Sox hitters are a collective 8 for 49 (.163 average) against Detroit's surprising ace. Who needs Tarik Skubal after all when you have Troy Melton!? (And yes, I'm kidding). Nonetheless, it's time to back Detroit's top starter until he implodes, which doesn't appear to be anytime soon.

I feel disgusting picking the worst road team in the National League, backed by a pitcher with a 6.63 ERA this year, but here we are. Somehow the Rockies are 5-4 in Kyle Freeland's last nine starts so there's a faint positive. And the current Giants roster is hitting a collective 9 for 58 against him (.155 average). But this is mostly a fade of San Francisco starter Landon Roupp. The Giants have lost 15 of his last 17 starts dating back to May. He has a 4.89 ERA at night, nearly two points higher than his daytime ERA. Colorado just took the final two games in Arizona so we'll see if they can make it three straight wins on Friday.

Let's ride the hot streak with Athletics slugger Tyler Soderstrom. He has at least one hit in all ten August games, including eight extra base hits. Tonight, Soderstrom faces Kumar Rocker, a pitcher he's fared well against over their careers. In ten career at-bats, Soderstrom has four hits, three walks, and three strikeouts. Basically Soderstrom has either gotten on base or struck out in each AB. And of the four hits, three have been doubles. I'll take my chances for another extra base hit in what should be prime hitting conditions in Sacramento tonight.

Guardians starter Parker Messick has given up two or fewer runs in six straight starts and 8 of his last 9 outings for Cleveland. Keider Montero hasn't been as effective of late for Detroit, but 9 of the last 12 games he's pitched in have gone under 8.5 runs dating back to June. These two pitchers faced each other head-to-head on May 19th in Detroit, a 4-3 Cleveland victory (and under this total). With these two teams separated by half a game in the American League Central, look for another close, low-scoring affair in the Motor City on Thursday afternoon.

This is kind of a strange trend I noticed but I'll go with it for Wednesday's afternoon matinee. In Kyle Leahy's last nine starts for St. Louis, no more than eight runs were scored in any of those games. Leahy has been fantastic for the Cardinals, allowing two or less runs in each of his last eight starts. Meanwhile, Zack Wheeler owns a 2.31 road ERA for the Phillies. Let's ride this Under trend and hope for a pitchers duel on Wednesday at Busch Stadium.

Am I a fool for going against one of the best pitchers in the National League, Cristopher Sanchez, with this prop? Possibly, though Sanchez's road ERA is more than three points higher than at home. Ivan Herrera is on a tear and has reached at least two total bases in five straight games. He's also 1 for 2 lifetime vs. Sanchez with a home run. I expect him to do some damage on Tuesday night and hopefully bring home this prop at a generous price.

It's a Bryan Woo road start and you know what that means! The Seattle right hander is 1-8 with a 6.71 ERA on the road. Meanwhile, the Yankees have won 4 of Ryan Weathers' last 5 starts. I'll fade the sinking Mariners and back the home Yankees at a fair price.