Eric's Picks (2 Live)
The Billikens are 21-1 and average more than 91 points per game, ranking sixth nationally. While they are only 3-2 to the Over in road games, St. Louis games have exceeded this 147.5 number in four of those games. On the season, Josh Schertz’s team has scored 77 or more points in 20 of 22 games. On the other side, in seven Davidson games this season with totals of 144.5 or greater, they’ve exceeded 147.5 total points six times. This feels like a game played in at least the 150s so I’m rolling with the Over.
Stephen F. Austin is averaging nearly 79 points per game and has scored 79+ points in 4 of their last 5 games. Adding on to that, Northwestern State gives up more than 77 points per game. What’s interesting here is these teams played on New Year’s Eve, with SFA winning 74-64, falling under the total of 138.5. I love the angle of a first matchup going under the total, then the line going up for the second game. We’ll see if there are legs to this but give me the over in an afternoon matinee on Tuesday.
Tyler Higbee is over this receiving yardage total in all three games since he’s returned from injury (91-45-27). As we saw last week in Chicago, all it takes is one catch to well exceed this number. In the Week 16 matchup between the Rams and Seahawks, L.A. tight ends caught 7 passes for 88 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets. Jake Tonges had 5 for 59 against them last week before being hurt early in the second half. With Seattle’s attention on slowing Puka Nacua, expect the Rams tight ends to have success once again.
Sam Darnold hasn’t topped 200 yards passing in his last three games and is dealing with an injured oblique. Throwing deep might be an issue with this injury, so the biggest concern here is a run after the catch by Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Rashid Shaheed. Expect Seattle to lean on Kenneth Walker III and not allow Darnold to do the heavy lifting. With Darnold’ injury, if the Seahawks are in chase mode, would they consider inserting Drew Lock late in the game to take shots down the field? Either way, I think Seattle’s starting QB doesn’t complete a pass longer than 30 yards this week.
Dating back to 2024, Sam Darnold has faced the Rams four times. His teams are 1-3 in those games, with the one win being a large blown lead by Los Angeles and won on a two-point conversion (in December 2025). He’s thrown six interceptions against L.A. already this season and is once again likely not to be 100% on Sunday with an oblique injury. Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford hasn’t thrown an interception against Seattle this season (5 TDs, 0 INTs). Though Stafford hasn’t been at his best this postseason, I can’t possibly pick Darnold over him in a big game. In yet another playoff thriller, Los Angeles moves on to the Super Bowl for the second time in five seasons. Rams 27, Seahawks 23.
When I make my Same Game Parlays closer to Sunday, I’ll probably buy this number up a few points just to be safe. That’s always a betting philosophy I advise with SGPs. Regardless, with two excellent defenses and Denver starting a backup quarterback, I just can’t see this one turning into a Broncos-Bills type of shootout. I would’ve probably leaned Denver at home with a healthy Bo Nix, but it’s hard to imagine Jarrett Stidham pulling a Jeff Hostetler (see the 1990 Giants) and leading his team to the Super Bowl. Both of these teams have skated by with relatively easy schedules this season. This time, the Nix injury benefits New England significantly. Patriots 21, Broncos 13.
There are some trends we just can’t ignore and this is one of them. Since 2024, Memphis is 0-26 against the spread after scoring 116 points in the previous game. Two games ago, they dropped 126 against Orlando in Germany, before losing at home to Atlanta as a 1.5-point favorite three days later. Memphis did score 122 against the Hawks, so the trend is our friend again tonight. Ja Morant and Santi Aldama are out for the Grizzlies, while Zion Williamson is in for New Orleans. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the sad Pelicans even pull off the outright upset, but just to be safe, I’ll take the points.
I’ve doubted Indiana long enough and now I’m done. This team is absolutely for real and they’re going to prove it in Miami’s home stadium on Monday night. The Hoosiers’ defense has only given up more than 20 points twice: at Penn State and in garbage time against Oregon in the Peach Bowl. Don’t expect Miami to find a ton of success against that unit. On the other side, I think the Hurricanes will keep the game close before Fernando Mendoza leads Indiana to two fourth quarter touchdowns and an improbable National Championship to say the least. Indiana 27, Miami 17.
It’s going to be freezing in Chicago on Sunday, well that actually might be an understatement. I’ve never been in any weather colder than 25 degrees wind chill, so I can’t imagine what negative temperatures feel like including gusty winds. How miserable. That certainly doesn’t favor Matthew Stafford, who’s played the majority of his career games indoors or in mild weather. Expect Kyren Williams and Blake Corum to get a lot of work, while the Rams defense will force Caleb Williams into two big mistakes. On a normal day, this game might fly over, but not in these conditions. Rams 24, Bears 19.
C.J. Stroud was bad on Monday night and he’s potentially without his star wide receiver Nico Collins on Sunday due to a concussion. Not good for Houston. Plus, teams coming off the Monday night playoff win have never won another game in the playoffs. But there’s always a first for everything. Behind the strength of a tremendous defense and five Ka’imi Fairbairn field goals, Houston’s offense does just enough to advance to the AFC Championship Game for the first time ever. Drake Maye will have better days as will his Patriots. Texans 22, Patriots 17.
I’ll play contrarian here considering the two regular season matchups between these teams combined for only 46 points. Even without George Kittle, the 49ers offense should make adjustments and find success against the stellar Seattle defense. And on the other side, look for the running back duo of Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet to run wild against San Francisco’s battered defense. I don’t like to trust Sam Darnold much but I’ll give him a pass this week. Seahawks 29, 49ers 21.
This is the one game over the weekend where I truly don’t have a strong lean. But Buffalo is SO banged up and now is facing one of the league’s best defenses on the road. The Bills whacked the Broncos last season but Denver is improved in 2025-26 and Buffalo is worse. While I think this one will be extremely close, I lean the home team in another NFL playoff thriller. Broncos 24, Bills 21.
I can’t believe Aaron Rodgers found a way in the playoffs yet again. I have to think this is it for him either way. The Texans' defense should overwhelm the future Hall of Famer and hold Pittsburgh fairly in check. Entering the playoffs on a nine game winning streak and facing a team who I believe is a class below them, I think Houston’s offense does enough to win, including relying on the leg of reliable kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn. The Texans’ kicker has converted multiple field goals in 14 of 15 games he’s played in this season. Texans 23, Steelers 10.