Veteran Pirates starter Mitch Keller posted a 2.87 ERA over his first eight starts. But over his last nine starts, Keller has an ERA of 6.85. Current Nationals are batting .304 against Keller, in a sample size of 92 at-bats. Over the past 30 days, Washington ranks eighth in OPS (.780). Look for the Nats to improve to 14-4 in Foster Griffin's starts.

DraftKings. Foster Griffin has emerged as the ace for Nationals subpar rotation this season. After three years in Japan, Griffin returned to the Majors this season armed with a new sweeper and splitter, which has helped to yield a 2.93 ERA across 17 starts. He’s under this line in 12 of those outings, allowing a .238 xBA. While one of those misses was against Pittsburgh, that was back in April, and his xBA allowed of .220 for that game was drastically lower than the .348 actual. The fact is, the Pirates aren’t a great lefty-hitting team: over the last month they’ve hit .223 against southpaws. Take the under on this line that Griffin has regularly beaten over the course of this season.

Laying the 0.5 run here with Foster Griffin on the mound for the Nationals. Griffin has been going deep into games, limiting runs and missing bats. Keller is on a slightly opposite trajectory and I expect him to get hit up in great hitting conditions in Washington. All signs point to the Nationals putting up enough runs early to cover the First Five run line.

I like this price for the Nationals behind starting pitcher Foster Griffin, who is 8-2 with a sub-3.00 ERA this season. Washington has won 7 of his last 8 starts since mid-May. Meanwhile, Pirates starter Mitch Keller has surrendered 36 earned runs over his last nine starts. On Friday night, I believe the Nationals will win for the fifth time in their last six games.