Alex's Picks (1 Live)
This looks like a good spot to fade rookie Kon Knueppel who is having a fantastic season, however his production has fallen off recently. Knueppel is averaging 16.7 PPG since March 1st and while he’s still playing well his efficiency has taken a hit as well. He gets a very tough matchup against a Detroit Pistons squad that is very good defensively. I also expect this game to be paced down.
This is a big combo line for RJ Barrett who is averaging a combined 26.3 PRA on the season. While this is definitely a good matchup on paper against a Heat team that hasn’t been particularly good defensively, it is a must win game for both teams and should be a playoff atmosphere. The Raptors are also as healthy as they have been all season long. Ultimately this number is a couple ticks too high for a guy that doesn’t create a lot of offense.
I often talk about fading the hot hand when a guy is performing above expectations, thus pointing towards regression. I believe that to be the case with Jrue here as we’re getting a sizable number on this scoring line. This would certainly qualify as a difficult matchup as well, against a Spurs squad that is excellent limiting opposing guards in the scoring department.
Dillon Brooks has struggled since returning to the Suns lineup and considering the emergence of Jalen Green, I’m not sure there’s enough consistent volume for Brooks to support scoring lines this high. Couple that with a difficult matchup against a very good Houston defense in a game that’s expected to be paced down. This seems like a natural spot to fade Brooks and would require a bump in volume to eclipse this scoring line. I’d play this down to 16.5 as well.
Cooper Flagg is having an incredible rookie season and all but locked up the award after his previous two performances where he combined for 96 points on strong efficiency. With that being said, this is a massive scoring line for almost any player and at this number he is an automatic fade for me. Especially when you factor in the matchup is tough, there is blowout risk, and he’s likely to cool off. I’d play this for a full unit at 27.5 as well.
This is a large number for Bam Adebayo who has struggled from an efficiency standpoint since his record setting 83 point performance against a G-League Wizards team. I also consider it a difficult matchup against an above average defensive team, who play at a slower pace, and defender opposing Centers well.
Jalen Duren has developed into an All-NBA caliber Center and has been vital in the Piston locking up the top seed in the Eastern Conference. With that said, this is a hefty combo line for the talented big man in what would certainly qualify has a difficult matchup against the Magic who surrender the second fewest PPG to opposing Centers. I expect this game to be paced down as well.
De’Aaron Fox is an elite scorer and despite averaging the fewest PPG he’s scored since his sophomore season, he sacrifices a ton in order to play on an elite team. We’re getting a discount on this points line, in a game that projects to be competitive and high scoring. When Fox sees 30+ minutes he’s hit this line in over 68% of his appearances this season.
I’m going to take a shot here on De’Aaron Fox who were getting a hefty discount on his scoring line. Fox has been held under this line in five consecutive games, however they were all blowouts where he failed to log 30+ minutes in a single game. He’ll face a Clippers team that has plenty to play for in a game that projects to be competitive. I like Fox’s chances of getting back on track tonight.
Brandin Podziemski has been playing well of late and prior to the Warriors last blowout loss to the Spurs had scored 20+ points in five consecutive games. The Warriors are shorthanded tonight and there are some blowout concerns here, however I expect that to be offset by a bump in usage for Podziemski.
Anthony Edwards is questionable to suit up tonight against the Pistons. If he does return to the court, I believe there is a strong likelihood he is on a minutes limit as he appeared to be on a hard cap in his previous appearance. This would also qualify as a difficult matchup versus a very good Pistons defense.
Jalen Duren has had an All-NBA caliber season and has emerged as one of the leagues best Centers. That being said, he’s still a bit raw from a shot making standpoint. He’ll face a difficult matchup against a Minnesota team that defends the paint well, which is where Duren does the majority of his scoring.
Evan Mobley has been playing arguably the best basketball of his career in the month of March averaging 21/10/3 on impressive efficiency. He will face a Lakers team that gives up a ton of production to opposing scoring forwards. Mobley has been extremely active on the glass and is averaging 12 RPG over his last 9 appearances. With Jarrett Allen on the shelf, Mobley should get all the run he can handle and looks poised for a high volume role in a game that projects to be competitive.
Previous to his last two games, John Collins had gone 20+ games scoring in double figures. This likes a good spot to back the veteran in a game projected to be high scoring with a total just shy of 240 points. I have the big man projected to score 14.7 points.