Alex's Picks (1 Live)
Alex's Past Picks
We’re getting a hefty discount on this combination line for Jaylen Brown who appears to be at full strength and playing without limitations after logging 41 minutes in the Celtics Game 4 victory. Brown dealt with a nagging knee injury which depressed this line but he certainly appears to be operating at full strength. I also like that this game is in Boston where Brown averaged over 35 PRA compared to just 29.8 PRA on the road.
The Pacers look like they might be playing spoiler once again in the postseason and sport a very deep rotation. As a result they’re getting significant contributions from 8 to 9 players on a nightly basis. Andrew Nembhard has been an unsung hero and strong two way player, however this is a large combination line for him, especially considering his usage and role in Indiana’s offense when they’re operating at full strength. Nembhard is shooting 53% through the playoffs and we’re getting an inflated line.
I rarely play rebounding props due to them being highly volatile but this is one I like quite a bit. First and foremost Alperen Sengun is one of the Association's best rebounders. Sengun averaged over 10 RPG in the regular season despite playing less than 32 MPG in the regular season. Sengun is playing over 35 MPG in the playoffs and I expect that number to rise in what is a must win Game 4 for Houston. I’d play this at 11.5 for a half unit.
Derrick White continues to show why he is one of Bostons most valuable players and truly one of the leagues most underrated two way players. With that being said, this is a huge line for the combo guard in a game with an anemic total of just 196 points. The Magic are a good defense and play at at the leagues slowest pace. I would play this for a full unit at 17.5.
Despite being an NBA Champion and very well respected amongst his peers, I would argue that Derrick White remains one of the most underrated players in the Association. White has the ability to contribute in a variety of ways, is versatile on both ends of the court, and has a very high basketball IQ. That being said, while he may attempt a few more shots tonight, his usage remains fairly consistent with and without Jayson Tatum (Doubtful) in the lineup. This combo line is typically 8.5 to 9.5 and in addition to the Magic playing at the slowest pace in the Association, Orlando surrenders the fewest Reb+Ast on a per game basis.
This line is simply too low for Anthony Edwards who has consistently elevated his level of play and scoring in the playoffs. I also like that the Lakers are significant favorites here and Ant tends to be his most aggressive when playing from behind. I also like that Ant averaged 29 PPG on the road this season. I consider Ant a top 5 player in the league and I like his chances of reminding everyone with a big performance tonight versus Luka and Lebron.
Jamal Murray has elevated his play in the postseason throughout his career. Murray played a whopping 48 minutes in Denver’s Game Overtime victory and compiled 37 PRA. Murray shot just 7-20 from the field and I expect him to continue to be aggressive offensively in Game 2. His hamstring issues that plagued him through the last month of the regular season appear to be in the rear view mirror. Murray is capable of eclipsing this PRA line with just points alone. I expected this number to open between 31.5 and 32.5. With another big performance there is a good chance this line won’t ever be below 30 for the remainder of the playoffs. I like this as a full unit play at 29.5.
We’re getting a chunky discount on this scoring line for Jaylen Brown who is dealing with a troublesome knee, however the reigning Finals MVP was able to practice ahead of Game 1 versus Orlando. I’m betting on Brown being close to 100% considering he’s nearly 2 weeks off and his practice participation in very encouraging. I also believe the Celtics would hold him out if they were worried about his knee.
Kawhi Leonard played great basketball down the stretch and looked as good as ever over the final month of the season. Kawhi is healthy and in great form as he heads into a first round date with Nikola Jokic and Denver. I expect this series to be high scoring up tempo, and competitive. Leonard is likely to play 40+ minutes as well. Looks like the oddsmakers adjusted Leonard’s points, however his RA line I expect to be 11.5-12.5 as the series progresses.
PJ Washington is a key starter for the Mavericks and he certainly has the trust of HC Jason Kidd. Washington is a capable of defending multiple positions and his three point shooting creates spacing on the other end. He also plays huge minutes and I expect that number to approach 40 on Friday versus Memphis. Washington was able to eclipse this line, despite shooting 5-15 from the field. This combo line is way closer to his floor. I would play for a full unit at 24.5.
This is a large number for Domantas Sabonis who averages 19.1 PPG on the season. I also consider this a difficult matchup against a Dallas team that has a trio of quality frontcourt defenders in Anthony Davis, Daniel Gafford, and Dereck Lively Jr. it’s also worth noting Sabonis averages only 16.9 PPG in 11 games he appeared without Malik Monk this season. It’s also going to be a paced down environment with fewer possessions.
This is a big line for Brandon Podziemski who has appeared in 0 playoff games and just a single Play-In game. We know that in the playoffs teams typically play slower and games feature fewer possessions. I also expect the ball to in the hands of Steph and Jimmy quite a bit and Podz usage may decrease tonight. Either way this line feels a point or two too high.
This is a huge line for Shane Baz who to his credit has pitched very well in a pair of starts this season. With that being said, he has run hot on Ks considering he’s not generating very many whiffs. This line is 1 K too high for Baz, even in what is a quality matchup.
This is a must win game for Michael Porter Jr. and the Denver Nuggets who are still fighting for playoff seeding. I also like that we’re working with a 240+ point total in what should be a competitive paced up environment. MPJ averages over 20 PPG with Jamal Murray missing in the lineup this season, in addition to averaging more points at home versus on the road. I’d play this up to 19.5 for a full unit.