Alex's Picks (1 Live)
Kenneth Gainwell has arguably been Aaron Rodgers most trusted target, particularly recently after DK Metcalf was suspended for the final two games of the regular season. While Gainwell is a savvy sure handed veteran, this is a line typically reserved for Christian McCaffrey, in addition to Metcalf returning to the lineup. This game projects to be a low scoring defensive battle that could feature a few less dropback for Pittsburgh’s passing offense. Regardless of gamescript I like fading Gainwell picking up a 6th reception. I would pass on this line at 4.5.
Hunter Henry has had a very strong season while serving as one of the Drake Mayes most reliable targets this season. Henry had arguably his best season this year, however this is a big number for the 11 year veteran, in addition to a difficult matchup. The Chargers have surrendered the 4th fewest yards to opposing Tight Ends this season as well as ranking 5th in EPA per dropback since Week 10. It’s also worth noting that the bulk of Henry’s production and almost all of his spike weeks have come versus inferior opponents and bad pass defenses.
At this stage of the season my betting volume tends to dwindle, however this is a prop I love. Dalton Kinkaid looked very healthy in Week 18 and I expect his snap count and route participation to rise in what is an obvious must win game. When Kinkaid has been on the field this season, he’s been very good and should continue to function as Josh Allen’s primary target in a game with a 51 point total that projects to be high scoring. I’d play this up to 37.5.
This is a difficult matchup for Evan Mobley who has been in a bit of a scoring slump recently. I would also consider things a difficult matchup against a Timberwolves team that ranks 4th in Defensive Rating, in addition to guarding opposing front court players well.
Another massive combo line that I like fading, this time for Jalen Johnson. Johnson has been sensational but considering that he can finish 12 Reb/7 Assists and we still win this. I would play this down to 18.5 at a half unit.
Miles McBride is having a strong season while averaging a career high in PPG, while shooting a blistering 45% from behind the arc. He looks set to see 30+ minutes as the Knicks will be without Josh Hart. McBride has averaged 16 PPG in games without Josh Hart in the lineup. This game projects to be competitive and is featuring the top two teams in the Eastern Conference.
Tet McMillan has had a very strong rookie season and is the betting favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Tet is 71 yards shy of 1K and he gets a matchup versus a Bucs defense that’s been getting absolutely torched as of late. Tampa ranks 19th in EPA allowed per dropback, in addition the to 26th in Sucesss Rate. However since Week 10 they rank 27th in EPA and 28th in Success Rate. In a must win game with the playoffs on the line, I like Tet to have a big game versus a struggling defense.
Bijan Robinson is having an excellent season and his versatility is why he is one of the NFL’s truly elite RBs. This also looks like a very good matchup on paper, particularly through the air, however I believe the Rams are capable and will prioritize limiting Robins receiving production. Jahmyr Gibbs was recently bottled up by this Rams defense who held the star RB to 20 receiving yards on 7 targets. I expect the Rams to focus their defensive game plan on limiting Bijans production as he is the key to their success. I also like fading Bijans combo line.
Christian McCaffrey is having a tremendous season and looks poised to win Comeback Player of the Year for a 49ers team still in contention. CMAC struggled from an efficiency standpoint early in the season, however he’s been running the ball much more effectively in the second half of the season. He gets an excellent matchup against a soft Chicago run defense who rank 20th in EPA per rush, in addition to ranking 26th in Success Rate since Week 10. This game has the highest projected total on the slate, in addition to very high stakes, and I expect CMAC to be heavily featured in what is a must win game. Considering his rushing attempts line is 18.5, this is my favorite prop this week.
This line so simply too low for Brian Thomas Jr. who is still an elite talent despite his disappointing production. There is a lot of reasons to be optimistic considering BTJs role in the offense, Trevor Lawrence improving, and this looks like a great matchup as well. Last week Thomas was shadowed primarily by Pat Surtain and an elite Denver coverage unit. That will not be the case against a depleted Colts secondary who have become a significant pass funnel. Thomas is running routes deep down the field and this is an excellent spot that I’ll also be aggressively laddering.
I often talk about getting cheap pieces in potential shootouts and this is a textbook definition of that in a game that projects to be extremely high scoring. Marvin Harrison Jr. returned to the lineup after a multi week absence and posted a healthy first read target rate, in addition 61% route participation. We’re likely to see his role grow this week and the Bengals are an A+ matchup as they rank in the bottom of nearly every defensive passing metric. We’ve seen Arizona opt to go pass heavy and with the Cardinals checking in as 7 point underdogs here, they might not have a choice. This is a great ladder opportunity as well.
This sets up as potentially a high volume outing for Derrick Henry who will face the Packers Saturday. Green Bay is the biggest run funnel in the league, and without Lamar Jackson under center for Baltimore, I expect plenty of work for the Ravens RB. The Packers invite competitive game environments and in a must win game without Lamar Jackson, Iook for the Ravens to limit Tyler Huntley’s dropbacks. I like taking a volume based approach here.
RJ Harvey continues to function as the lead RB for a Denver team that has been very balanced. He saw only 7 carries last week against Jacksonville, however the Broncos only ran the ball with their RBs 12x in a game where were trailing wire to wire by signing margin. In the four previous games Harvey was averaging approximately 15 rushing attempts which I think is a realistic expectation in a game where Denver is heavily favored.
Tyler Warren is having a fantastic season and while he got off to a strong start, the rookie TE has struggled recently. Losing Daniel Jones was a big blow to Warren and the Colts offense, however with 44 year old Philip Rivers under center there is still reasons to be optimistic. In Rivers season debut last week, Warren led the team in targets. Rivers historically has targeted his Tight Ends at a high rate, in addition to the 49ers being absolutely dreadful defending the position and this sets up a nice spot for Warren.