Alex's Picks (6 Live)
Alex's Past Picks
Devin Booker is in the midst of possibly his worst playoff series of his career against the Timberwolves. Booker is averaging 20/6/3 on 43/26% shooting splits. Not good for a legit MVP candidate and one of the NBA's premiere two guards. He's likely going to log 42-45 minutes tonight barring foul trouble and I expect him to be very aggressive. The Timberwolves have a great defense, but Booker is too good to be held down four consecutive games here. This number is too low.
This is a lot of juice but I am willing to lay it as KD has made a total of 3 three pointers so far in this series and has only attempted 9 total. KD and the Suns appear demoralized. Jaden McDaniels is playing tremendous defense on KD as well. Durant only made 3+ threes in 37% of his regular season games, meanwhile Durant has been held UNDER this line in seven consecutive games against the Wolves including four regular season matchups.
The Milwaukee Bucks will be without their two best players in Giannis and Damian Lillard who account for nearly 55 PPG, in addition to 36 FGA's. Brook Lopez is going to have to step up if the Bucks are to have a chance to survive. We know Indiana wants to get out and run and play out a break neck pace. I expect Lopez to get up a lot of shots and with Milwaukee likely playing from behind, it wouldn't surprise me to see him take 6+ threes in this game.
Winn is a 26 year old hurler making his 11th career start today. He's only eclipsed 6 Ks one time dating back to last season, so this number appears much closer to Winn's ceiling, rather than his floor. Speaking of last season, Winn's whiff rate is down significantly and leads me to believe he is running hot on Ks as well.
Getting this play out ASAP as Kawhi was just ruled out leaving Harden as the primary scorer. I believe this line is too high for him and if the same Dallas team that showed up in Game 3, Harden is unlikely to eclipse this combo line.
While this would certainly qualify as a strong matchup against a Reds lineup that is 4th in the majors in K Rate, I don't believe Dane Dunning should be 6.5 versus any opponent. Dunning's underlying metrics leave a lot to be desired and considering he hasnt eclipsed 5 IP in three consecutive starts, in addition to 8 ER and 9 BBs, he's simply an auto fade at 6.5.
Michael Wacha is a solid veteran pitcher who eats innings and I like his chances to potentially turn in 6 IP against a Detroit offense that ranks 27th in OPS against opposing right handed pitching. Wacha has eclipsed this prop in 17/29 starts dating back to last season.
No lineup in baseball at the moment is stingier when it comes to striking out than the Diamondbacks. Kirby is a quality young starter, but he's not a big strikeout guy and if we look at previous performances he tends to stuggle in tough matchups. Well, it doesn't get much tougher than the D-Backs right now. There are very few pitches I wouldn't fade at this number against Arizona at the moment.
The Phillies got off to a slow start offensively and also racked up quite a few strikeouts but have been significantly better recently, in addition to a a lot more stingy in the K department. The Phillies are 18th in K rate and just 16th in OPS against opposing right handed pitching, however they have scored at least seven runs in five of their previous eight games. Dylan Cease is off to a very nice start, however 8 Ks is just a big number in what I would consider a tougher matchup than most.