Keider Montero (3.55 ERA, 3.56 xERA) has a clear pitching advantage early on against Max Scherzer (6.38 ERA, 4.43 xERA). Montero’s ability to keep the ball low, combined with the late-afternoon shadows at Rogers Centre, makes it hard for Toronto hitters to lift his sinker. This is a tough spot for a Blue Jays lineup that’s already 30th in runs per game and 29th in team slugging (.386). The Tigers are 7th in runs scored on the road and 18th at home. They are 4.5 games out of a wild card spot. Still fighting to the end. My model projects the Tigers to win the First 5 innings 62.7% of the time (fair odds of -168), giving you an 8.2% betting edge at -120 (54.5%).

Martin Perez presents one of the league’s most pronounced regression profiles. Although he currently holds a 3.08 ERA, his xERA is much higher at 4.58, alongside a .264 expected batting average allowed and a .328 xwOBA allowed across 547 plate appearances. Perez has struggled on the road and has only pitched at Wrigley Field twice since 2016—neither outing was successful. He now faces a Chicago lineup that leads MLB with 207 home runs, a .430 team slugging percentage, and a league-best 5.33 runs per game, also ranking first in OPS against left-handed starters. Contrarily, Kevin Gausman represents an inverse regression case: his 4.60 ERA belies a 4.02 xERA, a .309 xwOBA allowed, and a 112 Stuff+ splitter. Let's play the F5 at a fair price.

Sutter Health Park in Sacramento is a hitter’s paradise. With a 125 Run Factor and a 127 Home Run Factor, it’s one of the most offense-friendly parks around. Toronto’s lineup, full of high-contact hitters (2nd-lowest strikeout rate), is in an ideal spot to take advantage of A’s starter Jacob Lopez. His low-spin breaking pitches are likely to lose their bite in the hot, dry Central Valley air. The Athletics’ bullpen is exhausted. Multiple key relievers have high pitch counts over the last three days. The unit owns the league’s worst ERA while ranking 28th in home runs allowed. Five runs for the road team seems very doable in this spot.

Tanner Gordon is an extreme fly-ball pitcher (8th percentile in ground-ball rate) and allows a high rate of barrels (15th percentile). At Coors Field, where he holds a 7.89 ERA, high-contact fly-ball pitchers suffer the largest run penalties in MLB. With low velocity (92.7 mph) and limited swing-and-miss ability, the Orioles should score early and often. Gordon has completed 6 or more innings in only two starts all season, so Baltimore should face Colorado’s bullpen for at least four innings. Colorado’s relievers were stretched in a 10-inning game in Atlanta yesterday, depleting their high-leverage arms for Monday's homestand opener. Colorado's bullpen ranks 29th in second-half SIERA (4.78), and the staff holds an ERA of 4.77. My model has Baltimore scoring 6.4 runs in 9 innings.

Tyler Phillips enters with a 3.67 ERA that drastically masks underlying vulnerability. His Statcast profile features a 4.81 xERA, with an uninspiring 17.2% strikeout rate and a very high 3.8 BB/9. Phillips generates very few whiffs (92 Stuff+) and ranks in the 4th percentile in hard-hit rate (44.3%). The Red Sox rank among the league leaders against right-handed sinker-slider repertoires with a 116 wRC+, a .338 xwOBA, and an 11.2% barrel rate. Boston's 74.1-mph average bat speed should play well in loanDepot Park's climate-controlled environment. Plus, with a guaranteed full nine innings of at-bats, their lineup will have ample opportunity to capitalize. The Marlins have held opponents under five runs in four consecutive home games, but that streak ends tonight.

Shota Imanaga’s off-speed pitches rank in the 92nd percentile for run value, making him a tough challenge for the Mariners. Seattle has struggled all season against off-speed offerings, ranking 27th in MLB in that area. They also have the third-lowest team slugging percentage at .375 and an 88 wRC+ versus left-handed pitching. When Bryce Miller starts, the Mariners are just 4-11, and he’s been going through a rough patch—posting an 8.04 ERA in August and a 7.18 ERA over the last 30 days. With all this in mind, my model sees the Cubs as the stronger value, with a fair price closer to -125. I’m backing the Cubs here as they look to avoid the sweep.

This is a rematch from Sunday, when Trevor Rogers and the Orioles defeated Freddy Peralta and the Rays. This game is part of one of the strongest MLB betting systems (Same pitching matchup in five days, with both starters getting a decision) I have tracked over the past 20+ years. Because the Rays rely heavily on analytics, they usually make the required adjustments. The Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Brewers, and Rays are the top five teams to bet on using this specific system. Both starting pitchers have an expected ERA around 4.00 this season. In his only career start at Camden Yards, Peralta allowed five hits and one ER across six innings, earning the victory. I think this line should be closer to pick em.

The Minnesota Twins snapped a nine-game losing streak against the Atlanta Braves on Monday, ending a skid that started in 2023. Zebby Matthews has a 4.69 expected ERA and a 92 Stuff+ rating, but he rarely pitches deep into games. When Matthews leaves, the Twins turn to a bullpen that has thrown 210 pitches in the last five days and is ranked 25th in ERA. Tyler Mahle, on the other hand, has a stronger record with a 3.92 expected ERA, a 105 Stuff+ rating, and a 102 Location+ index. Atlanta has a clear advantage, with a +14 Outs Above Average compared to Minnesota’s -4. The Twins are just 6-15 in the second game of a series after winning the first.

I like the Padres' chances to at least match the Guardians on the scoreboard after 15 outs. Gavin Williams has been solid, but his hard-hit rate and barrel percentage are both near the bottom of the league—just the 3rd and 6th percentiles. On the other side, the Guardians’ projected lineup hasn’t fared well against Michael King, hitting only .175 with a .453 OPS in 40 career at-bats. It all brings to mind old-school hockey, back before 2005, when a tie was still possible and grabbing a half-goal could mean cashing your ticket.

Christian Scott has elite pitching metrics, recording a 108 Stuff+ and 106 Pitching+, compared to Tanner Bibee’s below-average 98 Stuff+ and 99 Pitching+. Scott has a 28.8% strikeout rate and an 18.6% K-BB rate, while Bibee has fallen to an 18.6% strikeout rate and an 11.5% K-BB rate. Cleveland’s current roster has just a .135 expected batting average against Scott’s four-seam/sweeper mix, while Mets hitters have a .259 xBA and .426 expected slugging percentage against Bibee’s primary pitches. Bibee has thrown 100 and 107 pitches in his last two starts—the first time he has done so this season. He gave up seven earned runs after throwing 104 pitches in May. Let's play the Mets first five money line for half a unit.

Houston is batting .289 with an expected slugging percentage (xSLG) of .502 and an expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) of .361 in 230 plate appearances against Nathan Eovaldi—the third-highest xwOBA of any starting pitcher scheduled to take the mound on Friday. The Rangers' bullpen enters this game severely taxed, having thrown 225 pitches over the past five days. Friday’s matchup will be the Rangers' 8th straight game without a day off. Hunter Brown has electric stuff, holding opponents to a .192 batting average in 47 innings. And his advanced metrics look strong. He has limited the Rangers' hitters to a .216 batting average and a .377 expected slugging percentage over 111 plate appearances. He just needs to limit walks.

Nathan Eovaldi throws his splitter 37% of the time, his curveball 22%, and his split-finger 13% of the time. Yordan Alvarez excels against all three pitch types, posting lofty slugging numbers. Eovaldi has allowed the sixth-most home runs (22) this season. In his career, Alvarez is batting .480 with two doubles and two home runs in 25 at-bats against the veteran pitcher. The slugger went 0-for-4 on Wednesday and had Thursday off. The Rangers' bullpen enters this game severely taxed, having thrown 225 pitches over the past five days. Big night for Yordan and the Astros at Daikin Park. I have a feeling Alvarez goes yard in his first at-bat. Sprinkle that.

Before joining the Phillies organization, Brian Keller spent six years climbing through the New York Yankees’ minor league system. He has put together a strong minor league resume, posting a 3.11 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 616 strikeouts over 593 2/3 innings. This year, Keller has continued to impress, pitching to a 2.09 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and recording 41 strikeouts in 39 1/3 innings. Ryan Weathers has a 4.40 ERA and a 4.56 expected ERA. He has already logged a career-high 102 1/3 innings this season. The Phillies have fared well against Weathers in the past, hitting .368 with a 1.426 OPS in 36 career at-bats. Kyle Schwarber is 3-for-6 with a double and two home runs. I like the home dog in this spot.

Chase Burns is reminiscent of what Luis Castillo was nearly 10 years ago, ironically also for the Reds. Burns owns an 11-1 record, a 2.54 ERA, a 3.16 expected ERA, a 3.40 FIP and a 1.11 WHIP. He demonstrates strong bat-missing ability, posting a 28.6% strikeout rate and a 31.7% whiff rate. His arsenal features a high-90s mph four-seam fastball (113 Stuff+) paired with a low-90s mph slider that holds opposing batters to a .182 expected batting average and produces a 37.4% chase rate. Castillo has pitched better of late, but I’m fading his season-long metrics. He has a 4.93 ERA, a 4.16 FIP, and an opponent batting average of .264, which is higher than the league average of .242. First five avoids bullpen variance.

Sports betting isn’t just about analyzing matchups and picking a side or total, etc. There are proven systems that consistently deliver results over time. One I’ve trusted for many years focuses on the All-Star Game host team, which always plays at home right after the break. Since 2002, these teams are just 8-15, including a 2-6 mark since 2017. The only recent winners: the 2022 Dodgers and the 2025 Braves. I like the Mets’ Christian Scott against Aaron Nola, but with these systems, you set it and forget it. This approach has paid off, especially since most of these teams are underdogs. Additionally, all of the host teams have played on Friday, but this year the Phillies have to play on Thursday.