Coach Fred Hoiberg has his Nebraska Cornhuskers 20-0 on the season, and his team rolls into Ann Arbor as double-digit underdogs like every Michigan opponent has been for the last 2 months since they got +2.5 and beat Gonzaga by 40. But coach Dusty May's Wolverines have hit a lull over their last six games, as they haven't covered, and they lost at home to Wisconsin 17 days ago. They don’t look as intimidating. Nebraska has covered five of its last six games, and I think they will be ready for their toughest test of the season. Nebraska is allowing only 64.9 points per game during Big Ten play. Nebraska has won two of the last three meetings with Michigan. I'm on Nebraska.
Nebraska’s non-conference SOS ranks #299, showing their strong record is built on weak opponents. They’re unbeaten in Big Ten play but benefited from close wins and a high “Luck” rating (#33 KenPom). Michigan, with a non-conference SOS of 14th, is No. 2 in KenPom and boasts an Adjusted Efficiency Margin (+35.87) nearly 8 points higher than Nebraska. Such a gap signals a major mismatch. It’s the equivalent of a Final 4 team against a Sweet 16 squad. Michigan’s top-ranked 2-point offense and defense, while playing the seventh hardest schedule, make them a powerhouse. Nebraska is a poor offensive rebounding team (17th Big Ten, 304th nationally), limiting second-chance points. On the road against Michigan’s physicality and the Crisler Center crowd, Nebraska faces a “market correction” blowout.
