Nolan Arenado is coming off back-to-back games with a home run. He's at home, where he has an .813 OPS compared to a .688 OPS on the road. Arenado is also historically much better against left-handed pitchers, and he'll be facing LHP Andrew Abbott today. Arenado is 7-for-15 with 2 home runs against Abbott in his career, so he's already had a great deal of success in this matchup. The home run index is at a 10 out of 10 in this game, which could turn a long fly ball into a home run.

Christian Yelich is swinging a hot bat, collecting 12 hits over his last 5 games. He has just 1 home run and 4 doubles in that span, and with the weather expected to be hitter-friendly, there's a good chance he stays hot today. Yelich is hitting .311 on the road with 9 home runs, compared to just .189 with 5 home runs at home. He has also hit 13 of his 14 home runs against right-handed pitchers this season. Some books have this line as low as +300, so getting +525 is a strong value. We set Yelich's line at +350.

Marcell Ozuna has had a lot of success against Sandy Alcantara in his career, going 9-for-22 (.409 BA), though he has yet to hit a home run off him. The former Marlin has hit 9 of his 11 home runs this season against right-handed pitchers. Alcantara has started to turn things around after a rough start to his season, but he did allow 2 home runs in his last outing. We set the line at +350 for Ozuna to homer, so +520 offers strong value.

This play is primarily based on Manny Machado facing a left-handed pitcher. He has a .597 slugging percentage against lefties this season, with 7 home runs in just 77 at-bats. Royals' starter Noah Cameron has been very good to start his rookie campaign, but he's still just a rookie. He's allowed only 7 hits in three road starts, but we expect some regression. While Cameron has been dominant against both sides of the plate, right-handed hitters have had slightly more success. We set the line at +370 for Machado to homer.

Byron Buxton had 4 home runs in a three-game stretch before going homerless in yesterday's game. He's been crushing left-handed pitching this season, batting .326 with a 1.094 OPS. He'll face lefty José Quintana today, a pitcher he's seen a decent amount—going 5-for-20 with three extra-base hits in his career. We set the line at +314 for Buxton to homer, so there's solid value at +360.

Riley Greene is coming off a two-homer game in yesterday's loss to the Rays and now has three multi-hit games over his last four. His success in Tampa's park isn't surprising given the favorable dimensions and weather—especially for left-handed batters. Greene is also from Orlando, so he's likely playing in front of a big group of friends and family this weekend. He's hitting .314 with 16 of his 17 home runs against right-handed pitchers. Our model loves Greene in this matchup and sets the line at +330 for him to go deep today.

We set this line right at the consensus at +265, so you are getting good value by playing this on FanDuel. Rooker is hitting .328 against LHPs this season with a 1.082 OPS and gets to face a rookie southpaw in home-run hitting conditions. Colton Gordon has given up multiple home runs in two of his last three starts (both at home). All six of his HRs allowed were against right-handed batters, who are hitting .308 with a .901 OPS against him.

Junior Caminero is coming off a four-hit game and looking like the former No. 1 overall prospect in baseball. He has eight hits over his last three games but does not have a homer in those games. Given that one in four of his hits this season have been home runs, he is due for one of those hits to be a HR. Thirteen of his 17 HRs this season have come against right-handers, and he is facing a righty Thursday in Charlie Morton. Morton has allowed 10 homers this season. We set the line at +298 for Caminero to homer.

We are going back to Gunnar Henderson for a second day in a row, but this time at a better price. Henderson has very favorable splits vs. right-handed pitchers, and he's facing Taj Bradley, who is coming off two poor starts. Bradley has actually been much better at preventing home runs this season compared to his career rates, but we do expect some regression. Henderson is 4-for-12 off Bradley with a home run, so there is some familiarity in this matchup. We set the line at +350 for Henderson to homer.

Yankees starter Ryan Yarbrough doesn't have a high home run allowed rate over his career, but his 1.4 HR/9 rate this season would be the second worst of his career. Yarbrough has significantly worse numbers against right-handed bats, who have hit 6 of the 8 home runs he's allowed this season. Neto's power numbers have dipped after a hot start, but he's still piling up hits. In 8 games where the opposing starter is a lefty, Neto has 3 home runs. The model set the line for Neto to homer at +405.

Isaac Paredes is off to a slow start against left-handed pitching—just 4-for-26—but 2 of those 4 hits have been home runs. He hit nearly .300 against lefties last season, so we expect some positive regression in those matchups. JP Sears has already allowed 15 home runs this season, with 13 of those coming against right-handed hitters. In 5 home starts this year, Sears has given up 9 home runs in just 24 innings pitched.

Gunnar Henderson is facing Zack Littell, who he has raked against in his career—going 7-for-15 with 2 home runs. Gunnar is hitting .319 with 7 home runs against right-handed pitchers this season, compared to just .202 with 1 home run against lefties. This line is as low as +220 on DraftKings, so it's not just our model that loves Henderson today. Littell has given up 7 home runs over his last 3 starts and will be pitching in very hitter-friendly conditions in Tampa today. We set Henderson's line at +320 to homer.

James Wood is now up to 18 home runs on the season after going yard yesterday, and the model loves his matchup today. Rockies' starter Antonio Senzatela has been getting hit hard all season, especially by left-handed batters, who are hitting over .400 against him. Wood has a .957 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season and a 1.110 OPS in night games compared to just .701 in day games. With favorable splits and a struggling pitcher on the mound, this is a strong spot. We set the line at +375 for Wood to hit a home run.

Jose Altuve has 5 multi-hit games over his last 8 games, but just 1 home run in that span—and only 1 over his last 14 games. Still, he has 10 home runs on the season, so his power hasn't disappeared. Altuve has raked against JP Sears in his career, going 9-for-22 (.409) with 2 home runs and 4 doubles. Playing in the hitter-friendly Athletics' temporary park in Sacramento also boosts his chances of going deep today. We set the line at +450 for Altuve to homer.

Junior Caminero is coming off back-to-back games with a home run—and that was on the road, where he has struggled mightily this season. He's now back at home, where he's hitting .297 with 11 of his 17 home runs. Caminero has also been much better against right-handed pitching this season, posting an .844 OPS with 13 of his 17 home runs coming off righties. He's 0-for-3 in his career vs. Zach Eflin, but he's put the ball in play in all three at-bats. With the Home Run Index at a 9 out of 10, he might not need to get all of the ball to hit one out today. We set the line at +290 for Caminero to homer.