This is another longshot play, but this is the best HR value in CHC-MIL tonight. The weather is going to be pitcher friendly like it was yesterday, but there were still several HRs hit in yesterday's game. Contreras is 5-10 with a HR and 0 Ks in his career against Matthew Boyd. When factoring in the weather, we set Contreras' line at +540 to hit a homer today.

Will Smith is just 1-7 with a single and 4 Ks in his career against Cristopher Sanchez. Smith hit just .143 in 16 post season games last year, including just 1-11 against LHPs. Smith struggled in the month of August, hitting just .159 in 22 games, and the under 1.5 TBs has hit in 14 of 20 games headed into today.

Aaron Ashby faced the Cubs in the first game of the series and was strong in 1.1 IP of work. We are assuming that Ashby's outing tonight will be a similar length, and we have him with just over 1 hit allowed. The top of the Cubs' lineup is loaded with left-handed bats (PCA, Busch, Tucker), so going with a LHP opener makes a ton of sense here. Ashby has allowed 1 or fewer hits in 30 of his 44 appearances this season.

This is a strong line with the consensus line being around +110 for Trea Turner to score a run. We set the line at around -120 for Turner to score a run today. Turner is hitting .323 against LHPs this season, and his ability to steal bases puts him in a strong spot to get into scoring position. This is a must win game for Philadelphia who dropped Game 1 at home to the Dodgers, and they will need their star SS to have a big game.

Blake Snell struck out 12 Phillies batters when these two teams faced off less than a month ago, but this game has different circumstances with it being a road playoff game for Snell. It is telling how patient the Phillies are with Snell's walks allowed line at 2.5. Snell could be mowing down hitters but getting in to deep counts and walking a few guys, which could limit how deep he goes tonight. We have Snell at 7 Ks, so not a bad performance, but the values is on the under which has hit in each of his last 3 road starts.

Giancarlo Stanton has struggled in his first two games this postseason, but he has strong career playoff numbers and was swinging a hot bat before this series. Stanton has 18 HRs in 43 career postseason games. Red Sox SP Connelly Early hasn't allowed a HR in his first 4 starts and the weather in NY is pitcher friendly, but Stanton has a .951 career OPS against left-handed pitchers, and the weather doesn't matter much if Stanton connects with the ball. DK is offering +414, which is a strong price compared to the +323 consensus odds. We set the line around +330 when factoring in the weather.

Jameson Taillon is 17-6 on the over this season, including 8-2 in his last 10 starts. Taillon faced the Padres earlier this season and allowed 1 walk in 5.1 innings pitched.

Parker Meadows has just 4 hits and 1 run scored in his last 10 games played. He has gone under 0.5 run scored in 17 of his last 20 games played, and we would set his line at -245 to not score a run.

We are going with the "he's due" approach. Carlos Rodon has gone under in his last 4 starts, but before that the over hit in 7 consecutive starts. The over is 3-0 this season when Rodon faces the Red Sox and 5-1 since last year when Rodon faces the Red Sox. Boston walked 3 times yesterday against Max Fried, and look for the Red Sox to have a patient approach against Rodon as they try to get to the Yankees' bullpen which struggled last night.

We are going with a longshot here, but Jackson Merrill has been swinging a hot bat as of late. Merrill finished the month of September with 7 HRs in 24 games played. While it looks like the Cubs are going to use an opener in front of LHP Shota Imanaga, we still like the value on Merrill assuming he gets 1 or 2 ABs against right-handed pitchers in this game. We set Merrill's line at +520 to homer, so getting +700 is worth a sprinkle as a longshot.

This line is lower than you would expect because this game is a win or be eliminated game for the Guardians. If Bibee gets in to trouble, he won't have a long leash, but we still like the value here. This is Bibee's third consecutive start facing the Detroit Tigers, and he allowed 5 and 4 hits in the previous two. The over is 18-2 in his last 20 games including 9-1 in the last 10 games.

You have to figure Paul Goldschmidt will start over Ben Rice given his experience and defensive advantage. Goldschmidt has notoriously been good against left-handed pitchers, but he has struggled over the last month plus. According to Katie Sharp, since August 7th Goldschmidt is just 7-48 with one extra base hit against LHPs. Goldschmidt is also just 2-15 with two singles in his career against Garrett Crochet. Goldschmidt is 17-3 on the under in his last 20 games.

Manny Machado is a solid 5-13 in his career against Matt Boyd, and while he doesn't have a home run against Boyd, Machado does have two doubles against him. Boyd has allowed 19 Home Runs this season, and 17 of those were hit by right-handed hitters. Despite having a 2.51 home ERA compared to a 3.90 road ERA, Boyd actually has a higher HR/9 allowed at home this season than on the road. Machado has 13 HRs in 47 games this season when the opposing starter is left-handed compared to 14 HRs in 112 starts when the opposing starter is a righty. We set Machado's line at +345 to homer today.

Nick Pivetta is 25-6 on the over this season and 9-1 in his last 10 games. Pivetta is 12-2 on the over in 14 road starts this season, and we have him with 6.2 strikeouts in the Inside the Lines Model.

The Cubs are 12-3 when Matt Boyd starts at home compared to just 4-12 when he starts on the road. Nick Pivetta has a 3.55 ERA on the road and a 5-4 record compared to an 8-1 record and a 2.36 home ERA. The biggest reason we like the Cubs is their 50-31 home record this season and the Padres' 38-43 road record. Wrigley will be pumping today, and the Cubs have a huge home field advantage with a pitcher that thrives at home on the mound.