The Cubs are 12-3 when Matt Boyd starts at home compared to just 4-12 when he starts on the road. Nick Pivetta has a 3.55 ERA on the road and a 5-4 record compared to an 8-1 record and a 2.36 home ERA. The biggest reason we like the Cubs is their 50-31 home record this season and the Padres' 38-43 road record. Wrigley will be pumping today, and the Cubs have a huge home field advantage with a pitcher that thrives at home on the mound.
Nick Pivetta is 25-6 on the over this season and 9-1 in his last 10 games. Pivetta is 12-2 on the over in 14 road starts this season, and we have him with 6.2 strikeouts in the Inside the Lines Model.
Manny Machado is a solid 5-13 in his career against Matt Boyd, and while he doesn't have a home run against Boyd, Machado does have two doubles against him. Boyd has allowed 19 Home Runs this season, and 17 of those were hit by right-handed hitters. Despite having a 2.51 home ERA compared to a 3.90 road ERA, Boyd actually has a higher HR/9 allowed at home this season than on the road. Machado has 13 HRs in 47 games this season when the opposing starter is left-handed compared to 14 HRs in 112 starts when the opposing starter is a righty. We set Machado's line at +345 to homer today.
It's going to be 70° with winds blowing in from left field at 10 mph for Game 1 at Wrigley Field between the Padres and Cubs. This will be the third series between these two clubs, with the first two being split three games apiece, with each home team holding serve. It’ll also be the third meeting between starting pitchers Nick Pivetta and Matthew Boyd, who split each matchup. Both those pitching matchups were in April. The Cubs come off a sweep of the Cardinals, but they were struggling before, while the Padres have won seven of their last eight, including a sweep over the last weekend against Arizona. I've got the Cubs holding serving game one behind Matthew Boyd.
Miller earned a save against Houston on Saturday, allowing one run on one hit while striking out one batter over one inning.
Merrill went 1-for-4 with a solo home run, an additional RBI and a stolen base in a 3-2 win against Houston on Saturday.
King (7-8) earned the win over the Astros on Saturday, allowing one run on three hits and one walk while striking out six batters over six innings.
Vasquez will start Sunday's matchup against the Astros on Sunday, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Holmes (4-5) earned the win against the Royals on Saturday, allowing four runs on six hits and two walks in four innings. He struck out one.
The Cubs optioned Garrett to Triple-A Iowa on Saturday, Vinnie Duber of the Chicago Sun-Times reports.
The Cubs reinstated Holmes (fibula) from the 60-day injured list ahead of his start Saturday against the Royals, Vinnie Duber of the Chicago Sun-Times reports.
Tatis went 2-for-5 with a solo home run Friday in a loss to the Astros.
Musgrove (elbow) struck out three and allowed one earned run on two hits and two walks across 2.2 innings in a rehab start Tuesday at Single-A Lake Elsinore.
Ray (10-7) allowed four runs on seven hits and five walks while striking out two over five innings in Friday's 6-3 loss to the Astros. He also tossed two wild pitches.
