Matt's Picks (2 Live)
Matt's Past Picks
Might be the first time I've ever played Delaware in football. About all I know about the Blue Hens are their Michigan knock-off helmets (actually, U-M kinda stole too as those originated at Princeton) and Joe Flacco. They were a pretty good FCS program and have transitioned to the FBS well. Just one home loss and a win here gets them bowl eligible -- although as a new FBS member, they'd need not enough teams with the necessary six wins. UTEP has lost four straight, has no bowl shot and has one road victory. It's the Miners' last game as a CUSA member as they will shift to the Mountain West. Really feels like all the motivation is on one side here.
A swarm of locusts descending upon Ann Arbor on Saturday afternoon would be preferred in my eyes to this game actually taking place, but I'll sure be watching and I'm pretty surprised at this number. From a chance to defend the national title, this game really doesn't matter as the Buckeyes will be in the playoff regardless. Obviously, they want to end the skid in this series, but I wonder if the OSU guys are so concerned with laying a beatdown that they lose outright again. U-M hasn't won five straight in the series since the 1920s. Doubt it does that, but I believe keeps fairly close with a rush game that is averaging 232.5 YPG over the past five.
I don't get this number at all. Yeah, Toledo has an outside shot at the MAC title game (but not really) and Central no longer does, but so what. 11.5 on the road seems crazy to me as these teams are not that far from being basically even. Chips Ahoy are bowl eligible for the first time since 2021 and eyeing an unbeaten home slate for the first time since 2019. I think Toledo is slightly better, but yeah an outright CMU win would not surprise me unless I am completely reading this wrong. Which is possible. I did go to a MAC school after all. Let's just say I will be quite stunned if CMU loses by more than 10.
First off, I'm super-angry that I got so involved in Discord chat that I didn't get to post Kansas +11.5. Absolutely played that personally. Which may look stupid in an hour. So I will encapsulate what I think of Texas generally: Urban Cowboy movie (second-best ever soundtrack after Footloose), dust, cowboy hats/boots, gun racks and more dust. I personally find that utterly unappealing, but I get the Wild Wild West allure. This is the Horns' season and normally I'd just ban this to my personal ESPN Ocho or whatever, but I do wanna watch this. I had been waiting for 3. Now that it's there, I'll pay 20 cents for +3.5. Although I kinda think UT either wins outright or gets hook'emd. #HookEm
Wow 16. My father-in-law is a GT architectural legend, apparently. He flat-out told me last night: "F Georgia I don't care about no stinkin' playoff." The double-negative irked me, but he was two drinks in, very southern and quite entertaining when fired up. Imagine Sherriff Buford T. Justice from the first Smokey and the Bandit movie (so good) but massively smarter. So I mean now I have to. Do know this is not a true home game for the Jackets. They got paid to move it to Mercedes-Benz Stadium. But GT fans are usually drowned out by UGA fans even in true home games, so I'm not sure that matters much. And the Jackets almost won in Athens last year. This is their season.
Half unit as I'll just be honest: What Lane Kiffin is doing to his team is truly not cool. I don't begrudge anyone getting a raise of course. And perhaps (well very clearly), I don't know the difference between $9.2 million and $10.8 million. And Kiffin is a giant arrogant you know what; he is Steve Spurrier. But Spurrier won stuff. Kiffin is a great coach that's for sure. Just think all this surrounding can't be good. This might be the biggest Egg Bowl in recent history with all going on and it's also MSU's bowl game. Off-site, I threw $25 down on MSU to win outright. Either the Rebs tuned this all out and just smash or it goes wrong imo.
This has come crashing down. If you read the Wednesday newsletter, Navy still has a shot to reach the American title game but not a very good one. And, frankly, the Mids probably already are looking ahead to Army in a couple of weeks (on CBS). They are now conference rivals but that's not a conference game. If you have enough time to prepare for Navy, you really should win because it's not like it will trick you. If, and I mean if (because it can't play for the American title so is there motivation?), Memphis cares at all it should have little trouble here. The Mids are a nice story but have beaten no one, especially away. Obviously home finale for the Tigers.
This is not kicking at 7:30 because of the first game running late, so I can get this in. I'm utterly terrified, again, that WMU loses outright in a trappish road game with a chance to clinch the MAC RS title. But I'm pretty surprised this got to double digits even if I think the Broncos pull it out. Now I think at worst we push. But MACtion is crazy ... our model has EMU winning outright. I can't dismiss that.
I have been watching this all day so far hoping it would rise but it's dropping, so I'll take the last 14.5 we have. Half unit because I really don't care that much, but UMass is trying to avoid the school's first winless full season since 1927 and that's motivation enough for me. Fully expect the Minutemen to throw every trick in the book at the Falcons, who aren't exactly a powerhouse, either, with three total wins and one in the MAC while entering on a five-game skid. BGSU has nine straight games with under 200 passing yards and is on its fourth-string QB. It should be able to run all day, but prevail by 15 on the road when winless away?
Don't really rank picks in terms of likes but with all the intangibles that I'm seeing, rather do like this most of the early ones I have glanced at for Saturday so far (#doom). Just feels like an everything spot for Fresno State in the home finale to keep its Mountain West title game hopes alive. Utah State has no shot at that, is winless away (seven straight road losses overall) and likely looking ahead to the home finale vs. Boise State. The FSU defense has allowed fewer than than 200 total yards in B2B games for the first time since at least 1995 and has given up just 10 total points in those.
My father-in-law is a Georgia Tech architectural legend (92, amazingly), and he has never been this excited about a GT game as long as I've known him. He usually only gets fired up about tennis. So I promised him a bet to make him happy. Only if I liked it. And I do. And he'd be there, if he could, to see what I think will be the Wreck clinching its first ACC title game appearance since 2014. The Jackets entered this week leading the FBS in YPG (496.7) and yds/play (7.5). Pitt is solid but a freshman QB on the road short of Dan Marino generally does not end well. Panthers RB Desmond Reid (60-278-2; also big part of passing game) is out.
Let's have a little fun. If Ohio State had been away, I would have faded the Buckeyes ATS for the same reason I'm doing this as the Terps are terrible: No way the U-M players care about this; it's all about next week vs. OSU. Not sure if up on news/astronomy but there's Interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS out there. I hope it hits Ann Arbor next Saturday (metaphorically). If the Wolverines can focus and take care of business, good for them. And I think under Jim Harbaugh they would. But what has Sherrone Moore done (other than cheat/be suspended, too) to make us think so? I am letting my U-M hatred bleed into my picks. But I haven't been wrong yet. Doubt wins but why not?
One of the most important games of the weekend you probably don't know about, but for the the Ivy League title and its first-ever automatic bid to the FCS playoffs. If you can stream this do it. You will get some major "School Ties" vibes if you know that flick. Just gorgeous surroundings as well in the fall and pure neighborhood football. Love that stuff. The Bulldogs have won 11 of their past 12 at home and have Josh Pitsenberger, the Ivy's rushing triple crown leader, topping the conference in carries (217), rushing yards (1,095) and rushing touchdowns (12). Yale has the most sacks in the Ivy (32) and is tied for the fewest sacks allowed (7). I'll be watching, and the hook may matter.