The first two days of UCL action have been consistent for me: Win the full-unit ML home favorite bet but lose the half-unit on a home dog spread. Well, I'm trying again on the latter as I don't see why Slavia Praha is a dog. Lens plays in the better domestic league (1W, 2L in Ligue 1) but is hammered by injury and winless in 16 straight European roadies (9L, 7D). It would be thrilled with a road draw. Slavia has won three in a row at home vs. French sides. Now I want French Fries ... but then when don't I?

What I know most about Como? The side's utterly spectacular Stadio Sinigaglia -- if there is a more picturesque soccer stadium setup in the world, I'm not aware it. I Lariani haven't been able to play there yet this season due to some renovations or maybe a Corleone mob thing, I can't read Italian, but they will make the season debut Thursday in the Champions League, a first-ever European tie there. Even playing all three Serie A matches away, Como has two wins and a draw. Leipzig was handled away, 3-1 on Saturday in the Bundesliga and is down a few regulars led by Rocco Reitz (one of team's four domestic goals). Wish DNB was reasonable, but I'm learning that UCL DNBs are quite expensive.

Decent first day in the Champions League with Day 2 Wednesday. Atlético eliminated Liverpool from the Champions League in the 2019-20 season, but since they've lost all three matches in the series. That includes at Anfield on Matchday 1 last year, 3-2, on a 92nd-minute Virgil van Dijk goal. The Reds had blown a 2-0 lead. Liverpool also has won six straight group stage/league phase matches against Spanish clubs, keeping four clean sheets in the past five. The visitors have a few out at forward with Alexander Sorloth injured, summer addition Jonathan David (from Juventus) not ready and Arnau Ortiz suspended. Julian Alvarez will travel but has been not playing much as he's unhappy with Atleti after not getting a wanted transfer.

Do I expect a walk in the park today for Barcelona in its Champions League opener? Obviously, and so do the oddsmakers. But you are telling me that a Feyenoord side that is unbeaten in the domestic Eredivisie (not saying that's Barca's La Liga or anything, but also not hot garbage) can't lose 3-0 or 4-1? In addition, the manager for the Dutch side is Giovanni van Bronckhorst. He played for Barcelona for a few years back in the day and was an instrumental player in the side's 2005–06 Champions League title. So maybe the Blaugrana go a bit easy on him. The SL model has only a half-goal win. Not sure about that.

If not aware, the Champions League's league phase kicks off Tuesday with all six matches on Paramount+ and two also shown on CBS Sports Network -- including this one. Seems like a pretty fair price considering that Dortmund trashed visiting Villareal 4-0 about 10 months ago in the UCL behind two goals from Serhou Guirassy. The Germans are 2-0 in domestic play this year and Villareal is winless in four in Spain. I believe absolutely only a draw gets us Tuesday, but unfortunately DNB is way too expensive even for Mr. Big Moneyline himself. Dortmund has won its past three vs. Spanish clubs and outscored them 11-2. Villareal has only two wins in its past 10 against German foes.

Bit surprised Aston Villa is favored Tuesday in the UCL opener in Belgium, especially with some injury issues with midfielders Johan Manzambi and Leon Goretzka sidelined. Club Brugge has lost only three of its past 22 at home, and I win with a draw Tuesday so that's great. Brugge has scored three or more goals in six of its last seven home Champions League games. Aston Villa not only hasn't won in three Premier League matches yet this year, it hasn't scored. The Belgians have scored in 25 straight in all competitions obviously stretching back into last season. I asked ChatGPT for giggles, and it gave me Brugge 34% to win and 35% to draw. A 69% chance of cashing on a moneyline is -223.

First leg of a Champions League qualifying playoff tie with a 3 p.m. ET start as Dinamo Zagreb, the most successful Croatian Football League side ever, welcomes Viking FK of the Norwegian Eliteseren. The winner of the tie gets to the league phase. The reigning Croatian champions are in Europe for the 21st season running, while it's the first time Viking has reached the UCL since 1992-93. This is the teams' first-ever fixture, and Viking's first match against a Croatian team. Dinamo Zagreb is unbeaten all-time at home vs. Norwegian clubs (W3 D1), outscoring them 9-3. Dinamo also won its last UCL qualifying two-leg tie this year quite easily by a combined score of 7-1. Viking is off a road domestic loss last Friday.

A London vs. Paris powerhouse matchup in Hungary. OK. Now I want Arby's as am hungry. I never would have guessed this, but it's the first major men's club competition final between teams from England and France. Arsenal could complete the greatest season in franchise history, while PSG tries to become only the second team to repeat as UCL champion. Just asking for a regulation draw and then go crazy. The Gunners have not lost in this year's competition and have allowed only six goals in their 14 matches (no U3.5s available). PSG and Arsenal have met seven times, with two wins each and three draws.

Thank you Arsenal on Tuesday. Most of our other books have -1 and even one at -1.5, so even at this price for the other semifinal from Germany on Wednesday yep. Bayern is sitting down a goal in the aggregate following last week's utterly bananas 5-4 first leg in Paris. That was fun. PSG did lose a pretty key player to injury in right back Achraf Hakimi, and he's out. Bayern has won five of its seven previous UEFA two-legged ties against French opposition. PSG has lost its past two such vs. German foes.

Good injury news for Arsenal entering the UCL second leg at home on Tuesday -- it's even on aggregate -- as captain Martin Ødegaard and forward Kai Havertz are available to play. Ødegaard was limited to 57 minutes of last week's 1-1 first-leg draw, but Havertz didn't go. Arsenal has lost only one of its past 15 home matches in European competition against Spanish clubs. Feels like Atleti blew the chance to lead by at least a goal following the first leg as they did largely control the action in Madrid. Arsenal is looking to reach its first final in the competition in 20 years, having never previously won it.

We'd think Arsenal, the only unbeaten team in this season's UCL (10 wins, two draws), would be fine with a draw Wednesday as it hosts the second leg semifinal next week. The Gunners trounced Atletico 4-0 in the league phase in London in late October, but they were playing at much higher level overall then (and it was 0-0 entering the 56th minute). In its past seven total games in all competitions, Arsenal has totaled five goals. Injury-plagued Kai Havertz (three goals in five UCL games) reportedly is out Wednesday. Atleti has lost only two of its past 18 home matches vs. English foes.

I don't watch a ton of non-World Cup/European Championship soccer unless I'm betting, but I'll watch this. Should be some glorious offensive football with all the talent on the pitch. (Look at me learning the terminology.) But there were only 3 goals in the first leg and 3 is what our model has here. It gives Under 4.5 a rare A grade. I'm only going a half-unit because I'd enjoy as a fan seeing something like 5-4 and it may well happen, but I'm told it's hard to score in soccer. Like Halpert in "The Office," I last played the sport seriously from second to fourth grade on the orange team.

PSG is up 2-0 on aggregate, so obviously Liverpool will have to force the issue on Tuesday in the Champions League. The Reds didn't have a single shot on goal in the first leg, which I didn't even know was possible in a high-level matchup like this. Liverpool certainly looked a lot better Saturday back on the home pitch in a 2-0 EPL win over Fulham. Even PSG manager Luis Enrique said he expects a much different foe this time around. At home, Liverpool has won 14 of its past 18 vs. French foes.

Waited about as long as possible on this for any late news -- Barca is down 2-0 in aggregate, so Atleti would hand it a 1-0 road win right now and be thrilled with it. Atleti knocked Barcelona out of this season's Copa del Rey with a 4-3 aggregate semifinal win, so you know the visitors will just be going 110% all-in to stop this nonsense today. Maybe just a bad matchup. Barcelona did dominate the first leg early, but Pau Cubarsí’s red card changed everything. The Catalans twice overcame two-goal deficits in last season’s UCL semifinals against Inter Milan before eventually falling in extra time. Since the start of last season, half of Atlético Madrid’s home defeats are against Barca. Half-unit.

Road teams fared great Tuesday to open the UCL quarters (dang it Real Madrid) but sure feels tricky seeing Liverpool win in Paris and am sure the Reds will be thrilled with a draw -- they did win their last season, 1-0 (first away win in the series by either), but that winning goalie Alisson Becker is currently out injured. Liverpool has not looked good in back-to-back domestic losses entering -- both those also away. PSG is unbeaten in its past seven (two draws) vs. English foes. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has scored in three straight UCL knockout phase matches for the hosts (four goals).