Matt's Picks (1 Live)
Dortmund is the better side but up 2-0 in aggregate, so it can play in a defensive shell and be just fine with a 1-0 loss or obviously a draw. La Dea, meanwhile, has won four of its last five at New Balance Arena in Bergamo, and it bounced back from the first-leg defeat with an impressive 2-1 Serie A win over Napoli on Sunday. Atalanta fairly recently has beaten good European teams such as Sporting CP, Marseille, Club Brugge and Chelsea in Bergamo. The first leg was only Dortmund's second victory in the last eight games against Italian teams.
Well this might be a first for me as well: Playing -1.5 on a soccer team. And I wouldn't domestically but Inter was stunned 3-1 in Norway in the first leg of this Champions League tie, so it has to win by two (some of our books have -2 as the spread) at home Tuesday to simply force a penalty shootout to advance. So needless to say, the Italians should be playing major aggressively -- not ideal that captain Lautaro Martínez is out, to be sure, but I still can see a two-goal result.
At this price, will throw a half down. As Buckets said, Newcastle has very little to care here up 6-1 after the first leg. No reason to press offensively and give Qarabag any good counterattack chances. And I'm not sure Qarabag is good enough to get more than a goal anyways. Maybe the hosts do rest some key offensive guys with essentially little to play for and an important EPL match Saturday. Manager Eddie Howe is expected to and give fringe players some rare European minutes. Our model has 3.2 goals scored.
Thanks a bunch to the CBS Sports tech/data guys as we now have Draw No Bet -- and no reason to wait. This brings some favorites into play for me that I didn't love at -0.5 or -0.25. Like Olympiacos, which won 2-0 when these sides met in Greece on Matchday 7. Olympiacos has matched its longest winning streak in the Champions League overall with three in a row and has taken the home leg in six of its past seven two-legged ties in UEFA competition. It appears to have no player questions. Leverkusen is winless in its past four in Greece (one draw). I was somewhat leaning draw here -- I'll nearly never bet that, though -- and now don't have to fret.
Picking the lone early game of the four Champions League matches worked well Tuesday, so let's try again Wednesday in the same scenario on a home dog. Except this time we get +1.25 instead of +0.25. It's the first-ever UEFA competition meeting between these clubs and Newcastle's first against a team from Azerbaijan. It's also the first for either at this stage of the UCL. Qarabag keeper Mateusz Kochalski missed the team's last domestic match but is ready. The side has scored two or more goals in the last six UCL home matches. Newcastle has two wins in its 15 away UEFA matches. Win by a goal I could care less. The visitors also have a handful of guys out led by defender Emil Krafth.
Tuesday marks only the second two-legged tie between a Turkish and an Italian club in Champions League history. Galatasaray has lost just three of its past 17 UEFA matches vs. Italian foes and not since 1963. Juventus enters winless in its past three in all competitions and has a few injury concerns. Galatasaray is unbeaten in its past four and has never lost at home in three all-time matches vs. Juventus. Victor Osimhen scored six of the Turkish champions' nine league phase goals.
Slavia cannot advance regardless of result today and is one of three clubs in this season's UCL without a win. Pafos has an outside shot of getting into the top 24 but must win and ideally win big. Pafos has lost just one of its past 10 UEFA matches at home (six wins). This is the first time clubs from Cyprus and Czechia have faced each other in the Champions League.
Napoli sits 25th in the Champions League table and thus is surely not advancing with a loss and maybe not a draw, either. So it should be going all-out Wednesday against a Chelsea side that is guaranteed a spot in the knockout rounds. The Blues are playing for a top-eight spot (could get with a draw) but a little different than playing for your existence. Napoli has won eight of its past 11 UEFA matches at home against English teams. Chelsea has won just two of its past 13 in Italy.
Not sure why Arsenal would go pedal to the metal having clinched at worst a top-two spot in the Champions League group stage and most likely the No. 1 -- so it's basically a "dead rubber game" as they say over the pond. A handful of key Gunners are out led by Declan Rice and Mikel Merino. They have a bigger match Saturday back in the Premier League, where things have suddenly been a struggle. Probably see a fair amount of subs on Wednesday. Here's hoping for 4-0 or 3-1.
Both sides have scored 11 goals in six UCL outings and conceded eight, but Liverpool is at 12 points and Marseille eight. Les Phocéens are rolling offensively of late with 16 goals scored in their past three domestic matches. They try for three straight UCL wins for the first time since 2010-11. Igor Paixão has four goals in Marseille's last five Champions League matches. The Reds have drawn four of their past five overall and that's all we are looking for here. They have a single win in their past six at French sides.
Our model has this has as a draw and that's my hope. Galatasaray is atop the Turkish Super Lig and 18th in the UCL table with an even goal differential. Atleti is unbeaten in the previous six meetings between the sides (W4 D2) but they haven't played since the 2015-16 Champions League group stage. Galatasaray has won only one of its last 21 matches against Spanish teams (D5 L15), but I don't need a win. Victor Osimhen helped Nigeria finish third at the Africa Cup of Nations and is available for Galatasaray. He leads the club with six UCL goals. Los Colchoneros, meanwhile, are 1-2 on the road in this season's UCL.
Neither club is going to make the knockout rounds with Kairat dead last in the 36-team table. But it has only two home losses in seven UCL matches this season including qualifying. No Kazakhstan club has ever won a game in a UEFA group stage/league phase. Club Brugge has lost all three away league phase matches this season, conceding nine goals and scoring only one, and is without a win in six overall (D1 L5).
I went back and forth (waiting on lineups too) on this but the teams are basically level in the UCL table and we are getting +2.5? The Bianconeri have just one victory and six points from the opening five games of the competition. Pafos has lost only one of its 11 UEFA club competition matches this season (W5 D5) and unbeaten in five away (W3 D2) with four clean sheets. The Cypriots can't stay within 2?
Largely a wash in the Champions League on Tuesday. Top Leverkusen midfielder Alejandro Grimaldo missed Saturday's domestic match but expected to play. Leverkusen has lost only one of its past six European matches against English clubs while keeping four clean sheets. That includes a shock 2-0 upset at Man City in the last UCL match. Die Werkself has two losses in its past nine UCL league phase matches overall. Newcastle has two wins in its past 13 road European matches, and all we want Wednesday on CBS Sports Network is a draw.