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Dec 27 2025, 4:30 pm ET

RedHawks

3

@ Bulldogs

18

Money LineFresno St. -185

WIN

Unit0.5

Matt Severance

Severance Pays

Profile →

+1416

70-43-1 in Last 114 NCAAF Picks

+333.5

6-1 in Last 7 NCAAF ML Picks

+187

5-1 in Last 6 NCAAF ML Picks

Matt's Analysis:

Miami has been hit much, much harder via defections and/or injuries with its best defender in linebacker Corban Hondru and No. 1 wideout Kam Perry (42-966-6) among those out. Fresno State isn't in too bad of shape on paper anyways. First-year FBS coaches want to win bowl games to impress boosters and get $$. And Fresno is in that spot under Matt Entz, who formerly led FCS powerhouse North Dakota State (stopped at USC as an assistant along the way).

Pick Made: Dec 27, 2:14 pm ET on MGM

Team Injuries

All Games

ALL

All Games

62%

8-5

6-6

50%

On Road or Neutral

LOCATION

On Road or Neutral

57%

4-3

3-3

50%

As Underdog or PK

STATUS

As Favorite

17%

1-5

3-4

43%

When Spread was +3.5 to +7.5

SPREAD

When Spread was -7.5 to -3.5

0%

0-1

1-1

50%

As Road Underdog

LOCATION & STATUS

Favored on Road or Neutral

25%

1-3

1-2

33%

vs Teams That Win 50-70% of Games

OPP WIN%

vs Teams That Win 50-70% of Games

40%

2-3

0-1

0%

vs Teams Allowing <25 PPG

OPP DEFENSE

vs Teams Allowing <25 PPG

50%

4-4

2-2

50%

After >8 Days Off

REST

After >8 Days Off

62%

8-5

6-6

50%

vs FRESNO

HEAD TO HEAD

vs MIAOH

0%

0-0

0%

OPPONENT	W/L	ATS	ML	O/U
@FRESNO12/27/2025	3-18LOSS	+5.5LOSS	+169LOSS	40.5UNDER
@WMICH12/06/2025	13-23LOSS	+2.5LOSS	+112LOSS	43.5UNDER
BALLST11/29/2025	24-45WIN	-14.5WIN	-962WIN	40.5OVER
@BUFF11/19/2025	37-20WIN	-2.5WIN	-128WIN	39.5OVER
TOLEDO11/12/2025	24-3LOSS	+5.5LOSS	+187LOSS	44.5UNDER

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