Matt's Past Picks
Well, I was hoping to be 2-0 in the early window and call it a day, but the weirdest week of the season continues with Princeton upset at home, so we are slightly down (thanks Iona for complying). KenPom ranks the Mount 18 spots higher for this homecoming game. The Mountaineers try for the sweep as they won 75-66 at Manhattan on Jan. 10 as slight dogs. The Jaspers have lost three of four and haven't had Fraser Roxborough (7.6 PPG, 4.0 RPG) since the calendar flipped, and he remains out. Kudos to the school's athletic department for very in-depth game notes that included injury info. Quite rare for those to include that type of stuff.
Princeton was the overwhelming preseason Ivy League favorite and is playing like it at 3-0 in the league and having won seven in a row overall. The Tigers are 44-6 in their past 50 at home. They will also have the best player on the floor -- although the way this week is going, he probably gets ruled out with cooties -- in Caden Pierce, a six-time Ivy League Player of the Week. But he's not the reigning Ivy POW. That's teammate Xaivian Lee. I have to pick at least one Cornell game per season in tribute to Andy on the Office; have a friend who similarly puts where he went to school in many conversations (ironically Dartmouth). It's irksome as well.
Siena remains a bit short-handed with Peter Carey and Marcus Jackson out. Not their two best players but starters and both played in the first meeting, a 74-73 Iona win on Jan. 5. The Gaels are second nationally in offensive rebounding (15.7 per game) and No. 4 in the NCAA and first in the MAAC in turnovers forced (17.3 per game).
You know what they call a polar vortex in Iowa? Spring break. The Hawkeyes crushed me with their shocking home loss to Minnesota on Tuesday as I had them wrapped up in two parlays and every leg hit but them -- so they owe me. Penn State has lost four of five and its lone road win is as mid-major Drexel. Nittany Lions guard Puff "the Magic Dragon" Johnson (10.2 PPG, 4.4 RPG) is in doubt after missing the past two.
I hate playing road teams but CBB expert Thomas Casale mentioned early today that two top Ohio frontcourt guys might be out again, and I was waiting for confirmation. They are out: AJ Clayton (15.5 PPG, 5.9 RPG) and Aiden Hadaway (10.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG).
Illinois apparently is dealing with some sort of bug as second-leading scorer and leading rebounder Tomislav Ivisic (13.0 PPG, 8.5 RPG) is out with an illness, and Will Riley (11.0 PPG) and Tre White (10.5 PPG, 5.4 APG) are iffy. Polar vortexes tend to do this ... I would play the Terps +7.5 if they weren't winless away, so we'll do this in the hopes those latter two also sit.
Said I wouldn't play over -200 on college hoops any longer barring extenuating circumstances (and I certainly don't go looking for these). I believe we have that here. Western Kentucky is a good team but apparently will be down two of its best players in forward Babacar Faye (15.2 PPG, 7.8 RPG) and stellar freshman Julius Thedford (12.4 PPG, 3.8 RPG). Faye has been out a bit and won't get back tonight (supposedly), but Thedford went down Saturday. Louisiana Tech was the preseason CUSA favorite (2-4 in league play but all four losses away) and is led by reigning CUSA Player of the Year Daniel Batcho. We shall bet to win instead of risk on this one.
Sometimes I think I am a true Severance "innie" who knows way too much about the UMass Lowells and Hofstras and Quinnipiacs of the college basketball world and spends all day/night online, whereas my "outie" is a professional lumberjack (a la Wolverine) who spends his free time helping sick kids. Or I'm equally lazy in both worlds. Maine is 4-1 in America East play and UMass Lowell 2-2 but has played a significantly harder schedule and was picked second in the preseason poll behind Vermont (one of those losses). The River Hawks are 38-2 at home since the start of the 2022-23 campaign. They are first in the league and 20th in the country for field goal percentage, shooting 49.1%.
This is a very cheap price at least via our model, which has the Blue Hose winning by 10. Then again, models have not been very good to me over the past week or so in this sport. KenPom ranks Presbyterian 15 spots better, and it is nine spots higher in the NCAA NET rankings. It leads the Big South and ranks 39th in the NCAA in three-point field goal percentage at 37.5 percent and has had 10 games this season shooting over 40 percent. If that happens again, we should be fine. The Blue Hose also are third in the Big South and 88th in the nation in shooting overall at 46.9%.
Nowhere to go but up after an irksome Tuesday in this sport. Robert Morris has won three straight Horizon games, but it's the team's third road game since last Friday so perhaps on fumes. YSU has won three straight in the series, including 72-58 on Dec. 4 as the Colonials shot only 34.5% in their own gym. The Penguins are hot from deep, totaling 95 3-point makes over their past 10. And junior Cris Carroll is playing as well as anyone in the league of late, averaging 18.7 points and 5.3 rebounds on 55.9% from the field and 50% from deep over his past three -- he was a non-factor in the first meeting.
I'm moderately concerned this spread rose a couple points this morning only as our model has Tulsa winning outright and a few others I prefer have it essentially as a pick'em -- the Golden Hurricane actually have a better record in AAC play. Tulsa also got back a key player from a seven-game injury absence Saturday in junior guard Isaiah Barnes (9.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG). His minutes were limited but should go up tonight. Another might return from injury tonight as well in guard Braeden Carrington. Feels like a potential letdown game for ECU off a buzzer-beating upset win at Wichita State on Saturday. It was only the Pirates' third win in their past 11.
VCU is a very good team but Rhody is pretty darn solid as well and is 5-3 in the series at home. Three of URI's six A-10 games so far have been decided by one possession and the school is 3-0 in one-possession games overall this year and 4-2 in games decided by five points or less because it has Mr. Clutch in guard Sebastian Thomas. He had his fifth game-winning shot/points of the season with under 30 seconds to go Saturday. In the final minute of regulation and overtime this year, he is 9-for-14, from the field, 5-for-8 from 3-point range and 25-for-30 at the free throw line. Thomas has scored 48 points just in the final minute and overtime through 16 games.
Not a good afternoon of college hoops thanks to the law firm of Lamar & Alcorn, so let's try to get it all back in one swing here on Montana. Via NCAA NET rankings, the Grizzlies are about 30 spots better. These clubs met at Idaho on Jan. 4 and Montana won by two. The Vandals are 3-7 on the road. Sometimes preseason conference polls are helpful (sometimes not) and Montana was picked to win the Big Sky and Idaho only seventh. Montana has won 11 of the last 12 against Idaho, including five straight wins in Missoula. The Vandals haven't won in Dahlberg Arena since 2017.
Two bad teams but KenPom ranks the home side 13 spots higher. This is a little light via the models I use as they all pretty much have Prairie View by at least 6. Both lost Saturday but it's a road/road quick turnaround for Alcorn. The Braves haven't won on the road yet with most as blowouts, albeit against a very tough non-conference schedule. They are one of the country's worst offensive teams at just 60.6 PPG and it goes without saying that teams generally shoot worse on the road.
KenPom ranks Nicholls 15 spots higher for this Southland matchup. Nicholls was picked third in the conference preseason poll and got three first-place votes, while Lamar was chosen fifth. The game was moved up to the afternoon due to potential inclement weather heading in Louisiana so it's an even shorter turnaround for Lamar after losing Saturday at McNeese State, the Cards' second straight league loss. LU and Nicholls have three common opponents so far with both winning against Louisiana and UIW. The Colonels defeated New Orleans in their last home game while the Privateers beat Lamar.