Matt's Picks (2 Live)
Probably take it "easy like Sunday morning" -- great song -- today as things are getting wacky and Sundays are themselves anyways. But I do like this one. Big fan of Guardians pitcher Gavin Williams. He was shredded last time out in Kansas City in a surprise but is 2-0 with a 0.89 ERA in three home starts. We have faded the Twins plenty away this year and no reason to stop now: 7-13 on the road. End of a trip for them and I'm glad for these purposes they pulled the extra-innings upset Saturday (rare time I didn't fade them away thankfully). The bullpen is quite taxed now.
Can remember most firsts in life, you know first kiss (Maureen), job (newspaper delivery on my bike), etc. I can't remember, though, when I first decided it was OK to want money over a win for a team I love. Still don't much like it, but gotta pay the bills. I'm shocked how good my Cubbies are, especially with all the starting pitching injuries. Only a Cub/baseball player could tear a meniscus playing with his kids (Matt Boyd). In a perfect world, they win by a run Saturday. But the dogs are taking over lately. And this is a very fair price at +1.5 at a decent Texas team. Edward Cabrera is one of those guys capable of a no-hitter but also might walk six.
This might get rained out. For our purposes, I hope it's spitting at first pitch and they make them play through it -- the A's only make one trip per season to Baltimore, so they definitely will try to play this or else a doubleheader tomorrow. It's our only 5.5 on the board, and I always go look at those short of Coors Field. Thought the offseason Orioles trade for Saturday starting pitcher Shane Baz was quite wise, but he has been meh and it's another lesson to never trade with the Rays. They always win them. It's like that Fantasy dude who offers you a second-rounder for Bijan Robinson. Go away! Baz has been a bit better at home. I wouldn't go lower.
It can get a bit tedious betting the same team over and over again, but if it's winning ... "money don't care." I think this is too high and -1 (-135) would be a fine alternative, but the Jays are just different at home so this is acceptable. And Trey Yesavage (1-1, 0.96 ERA) is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball for a reason. The righty was great in limited 2025 action and has carried that over to 2026 after dealing with some spring injuries that led to a late debut.
Well, it's happening homies. The underdogs are winning. That'd be just fine here. I want a late-night play. Something about rewatching the Met Gala the missus mentioned just shot me straight to the "gotta work" card. Gosh I love my job. Just gets me out of everything a la Larry David. I frankly don't get why the Giants are (slight) home dogs with Robbie Ray opposed by the "Big Ragu" Carmen Mlodzinski. But I'll take it even at this number. Gifts are gifts.
I have absolutely no right losing this one as I could get 3.5 or 4 as well. This will just irk me if so. But I think Dylan Cease could easily throw five shutout innings for the Jays, so it's really a matter of how many Reid Detmers gives up for the Angels. He is perfectly mediocre, so give me 5 IP and 2 ER and I'll take my chances. These two pitchers were oppo on April 20 in Anaheim and seven total runs were scored (four in F5). I would not go lower, though.
Again, I think things might be about to flip when it comes to favorites just smashing. But I also can't ignore what I think is a good price. Have always followed the Jays for some reason (kick-ass unis is probably why), so I know a fair bit about them. Just different cats ... err birds ... at home (Rogers Centre). And they appear to have a massive starting pitching edge in Dylan Cease against Reid "Richards" Detmers. Toronto smacked around Detmers a bit in Anaheim on April 20.
I think the first "lull" might be coming. Starting to see some underdogs winning regularly. I am incapable of those (do like +1.5), so if this continues might be break off time and catch up on House of the Dragon. There are usually 3-4 "lulls" per season. Right before the AS break is the big one. Again, though, not going to change who I am and just be particular. Houston's Mike Burrows might be the worst starting pitcher in the majors. Thought same on Slade Cecconi on Thursday (they had him B1 but blew it with bases loaded), too, but that's baseball for you. Burrows only play, so if a pitching change ...
Well, can't really have a draw day can I? 1-1-1. Few cents down. Since I can't bet the NBA or NHL without any alt options realistically, yep shall do this, but I might have hantavirus. (Cruises were fun pre-pandemic. But I was likely never going again and definitely am not now. See you on the train.) I believe both these clubs are playing way above their skiis. But the Dads' Michael King has been quite solid and a fair amount of San Diego batters (if limited) have solid splits off STL starter Matthew Liberatore. As a rule, I try not to fade Matthews. Except in the "Lost" pool. #sandiegans #sandiegoites
Getaway day games usually are pitcher-friendly because batters are gassed from the night before. A few regulars on each side appear to be out. Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller has been really good overall and a 2.45 ERA on the road this season, while Arizona's Zac Gallen ... well he has been hit or miss. But the Bucs have totaled two runs in the past three games (yet gone 2-1). This is our only 5 and why will go.
Not that the Royals are very good, but this seems a tad generous of a number with K.C. at home and more important the starting pitching matchup. Cleveland's Slade Cecconi (more on him Thursday) has been one of the worst pitchers in the Show this season at 1-4 with a 6.58 ERA -- that ERA rises to 7.30 away. Also the end of a seven-game trip for the Guards. KC's Seth Lugo (1-1, 2.68 ERA) is about as dependable as they come.
I simply don't think Washington should be a home dog against mega-terrible Twins pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson (0-5, 6.49 ERA). That Minnesota lineup leaves a bit to be desired on a getaway day as well. Not a big fan of the Nats' Jake Irvin, either, at 1-4 with a 4.93 ERA. So I want +1.5 protection. The model has the Nationals winning and I'm leaning that way but don't turn down gifts.
A little chilly with some winds blowing in a second night in a row at Kauffman Stadium. Some full-game totals are down to 7.5 so this seems fair -- I wouldn't play lower and it's the only 4.5 we have. Royals supposed ace Cole Ragans has been just massacred on the road in 2026 but has a 0.75 ERA in 12.0 home innings. He had good numbers vs. the Guardians last year. Cleveland has managed only six total runs in a three-game skid. Southpaw Joey Cantillo allowed one earned over 5.2 vs. KC on April 8 and if he does similar again, we should be golden.