Matt's Picks (2 Live)
Kevin Gausman in Toronto is something I generally look at. He's maddening as will dominate for a while and then just get pummeled -- like last time out in Chicago. But Gausman has been better at home (3.10 ERA) and the Jays get a key bat back in Ernie Clement. I mean, I say "key" as a bit of a stretch. But he's one of their four best hitters and quietly having a very solid year. .
Having played three straight close games to open the week, Houston's bullpen is quite taxed -- I doubt Josh Hader is available, for example. And the bullpen likely will be needed behind Tatsyua Imai (6.15 ERA). Meanwhile, Detroit fill-in starter Troy Melton (4-0, 2.56 ERA) has become a crucial part of the rotation. The Tigers' bullpen is in fine shape.
It's the weak link of the Rays' rotation in Griffin Jax and Tampa Bay has not been great to us to open this week, but will the Rays really lose a third in a row at home to a bad Royals team yet again without Bobby Witt? I sure hope not. The Rays are 17-7 vs. southpaws and face a mediocre one in Noah Cameron (4-4, 4.20 ERA).
Yep gotta do it at this cheap number as solid as Boston's Ranger Suarez has been on the road. But that Red Sox lineup is pretty bad today -- at least on paper -- in a getaway game with a few guys sitting led by Jarren Duran. So maybe Boston doesn't jump out early on struggling Colorado pitcher Kyle Freeland. If offered +1.5 on F5, I would take that but no dice.
Shohei Ohtani will apparently hit as well tonight and I just think it's so dangerous to let him go more than six as a pitcher in the middle of summer while also hitting. Not to mention, winds are blowing out about 10 mph at Target Field so the Twins might knock him around some anyways. Ohtani hasn't been sharp in his past two on the mound, allowing four runs in each. The model has him at 5.9 innings. Ohtani has topped six once in his past five.
So in my mind it was either Rays F5 at about -125 or this at such a better number. The thing with the Rays' Shane McClanahan is that he has a fairly short leash via pitch limit. And the southpaw has not been very good in his past three. But those were all away. But at home he is 5-0 with a 2.05 ERA in five starts while averaging about 6 innings per. The Royals, who burned me good last night, are without Bobby Witt again and put Maikel Garcia on the IL. Weak, weak lineup so I could see five shutout from Shane. Just need the Rays to get a couple after a disappointing one run Monday.
Well I finally lost one of those No pitcher win things Monday after seven straight wins. Was due, I suppose. This is such a great price just to not get a decision that I'm a bit surprised offered even though Philly's Jesus Luzardo is lights out at 4-0 with a 1.55 away. His price to win is actually the same. Not sure I've seen that before but I don't look every day. Washington is 16-7 vs. lefties and leads the majors in OPS against them at .800. Our model gives Luzardo a 36% shot of personally winning ... which obviously means 64% No and that would equate to -178. So pretty good value here in that regard.
Three straight close games have left the Texas bullpen quite taxed entering this one. I doubt closer Jacob Latz (14 saves, 1.46 ERA), among a few others, will be available. Starting pitcher Cal Quantrill is a glorified opener and Texas has lost five times he has taken the mound. Miami's Sandy Alcantara has a 3.42 ERA at home this season and 4-0 in four June starts overall. No Rangers have done much off him career.
Pretty fair price on Baltimore's Kyle Bradish to simply not win tonight -- this was -168 this morning -- as he's 2-4 with a 5.09 ERA on the road. His ERA in three June starts (one home, two away) is 6.32. The Angels are of course lousy but just keep it tied through six (or even better be up six runs) and we should be good. The model gives him a 27% shot of personally earning the W.
The Rays are simply cash cows at home. Maybe we get fortunate and Royals star Bobby Witt misses another game too. He has missed the past couple with a Grade 1 MCL sprain in his right knee. Tampa's Drew Rasmussen should be getting some more AL Cy Young love at 6-3 with a 2.59 ERA and miniscule 0.88 WHIP. In June, he has given up just one run and nine hits over 21.0 innings -- going seven in all three starts. The Rays just do pitching than anyone else does. No Royals have particularly good splits off Rasmussen career. Their pitcher, Michael Wacha, is winless in seven straight outings.
Had not planned on playing this game but Fernando Tatis Jr. is sitting for the Dads, so now I will throw a half unit down. He's having a disappointing year but still a potential game-changer. Should make life a bit easier on Rangers starter Nate Eovaldi, although he has been rather hit or miss lately.
The Rays at home have been very profitable for us this season -- but so glad I didn't play them yesterday like I nearly did. Sometimes the best bets are the ones you don't make! End of a trip for the Nats and I doubt that one of their top relievers in Brad Lord is available after throwing 36 pitches on Saturday. Tampa Bay's Nick Martinez is 4-1 with a 3.02 ERA at the Trop this year.
Well the Snakes certainly owe me after allowing 16 runs on Saturday -- the Twins might not score 16 in the next week combined. I still believe Arizona +1.5 was a gift (if you had told me pre-game it would score 8 at home, i would have bet a dangerous amount and now be at a soup kitchen), but we move on. Minny is playing better of late but still well under .500 away and it's the end of trip. Don't know a ton about Twins rookie pitcher Mike Paredes but he seems quite mediocre.
Huge number, yep, but absolutely, positively Arizona should not be getting this. So I'll throw the Marlins money into this one and at worst an even for the day. Although yeah I think this wins. I don't really understand the pricing to be honest and obviously I am paying out the nose for that insurance. I'm fine with it.
Holy Moly, I need to argue with the missus and storm out angry more often to Mom's as I raked Friday. Funny how when you don't check pitch-by-pitch do well as opposed I don't think I have ever checked a game live where the team I am betting against has not immediately scored. Don't get me started on OT/extra innings. But an optimism Train to Busan today, although that train didn't work out (great flick). I could walk up to 10 people on South Beach and ask them if they know who Marlins pitcher Max Meyer (7-0, 2.85 ERA) is and four would speak German (wearing brown socks), four would say "no comprendo" and the other two punch me. Meyer has been awesome.