Matt's Picks (3 Live)
Giants ace Logan Webb looked great in the WBC and for the most part this spring, and he keeps the ball in the park so the Yanks' Aaron Judge likely doesn't jack one while Webb is in there Wednesday in the season opener from the Left Coast (Netflix has baseball now?). We love home teams in season openers. Max Fried is excellent as well for the Yanks, so we may be looking at scoreless through five. Probably play a half unit on NRFI. With pitchers usually ahead of hitters this early, why wouldn't we take +1.5 when it figures to be low scoring in a pitchers' park?
On a bit of a spring roll so will go one more day and then call it an exhibition season. The Guardians used eight pitchers last night in giving up 20 runs to Seattle and this is their Cactus League road finale ahead of their home finale in Arizona. So nearly every regular is out today while probably playing Sunday. About an Opening Day lineup for the Giants in their spring finale overall and the excellent Robbie Ray is on the mound. Next MLB play will be the Yanks-Giants RS opener on Wednesday night. Looking forward to the season.
Fully planned to stop with MLB spring on Thursday winning for the third time in four to get about even -- really not sweating results yet -- but when I saw this lineup and price I kinda felt obligated. The Yanks have been the second-best team in Florida and generally rock people in Tampa. And now Aaron Judge is back from the WBC and starting tonight as are pretty much all regulars. The O's have four Grapefruit away wins in 13 tries and are only playing a few regulars.
If I win this, will call it a spring with three wins in the past four. If not, may go one more. Most of the WBC guys are back with teams incidentally. Not a major factor here, just letting you know. Milwaukee is starting nearly its Opening Day lineup, including ace Brandon Woodruff. Texas is starting only a couple of lower-tier regulars and pitcher Jacob Latz has a 5.11 ERA this spring.
Close to wrapping up spring betting, maybe another day or two. Like always, I'm taking the home team that is starting what should be close to its Opening Day lineup against a visiting team basically playing minor-leaguers or reserves. Atlanta has been the best team in Florida at 16-6-2 and Philly one of the worst at 9-13-1.
Pittsburgh has the second-best record in the Grapefruit League and is starting pretty much every regular in the lineup today from lovely Bradenton -- where the Bucs are 7-3. Starting pitcher Mitch Keller has been excellent this spring with a 1.23 ERA over three appearances. Houston is starting no regulars and has three road wins in Florida.
Pretty much the Opening Day lineup for the Braves minus Ronald Acuna Jr. Ace Chris Sale is on the hill for probably 3-4 innings. The Rays are starting a minor-league lineup and pitcher Nick Martinez is 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA this spring. Atlanta leads the Grapefruit League with a 15-5-2 mark.
The Yanks have been teeing off on their home field in Tampa this spring and are starting most regulars sans Aaron Judge, of course, as he's with Team USA as is Philly's Bryce Harper. Nary a regular for the Phils, who also face NYY ace Max Fried for the first few innings. On the road this Grapefruit League season, the Phillies have a single victory.
No WBC to play Thursday, so let's try our luck at a Cactus League game. No doubt the Cubs have the superior starting lineup today and better starting pitcher in Edward Cabrera over Emerson Hancock. But it's spring and weird things happen. Half unit. Seattle has the worst record in Arizona.
Well, my spring "system" hasn't worked of late but let's try again after taking a day off and with Team USA also set to play tonight for the first time in the WBC. Note that I'm playing Under 14.5 on that. Again, this pick is simply looking at lineups. The Cardinals' version is utterly anonymous and the Orioles are playing nearly everyone of note. And it's veteran pitcher Chris Bassitt so I don't think he will get lit up like some minor-league guy might. Oh, sure, the guys after Bassitt may get shelled. This is why I only play a half in the spring. I consider this spring training for myself MLB-betting wise.
Very weak Arizona lineup in there, while it seems almost all of the Athletics regulars are playing. I've learned it's key for the spring home team to get out fast before all the scrubs come in. Just hasn't been happening of late. It's spring, I'm not sweating these half-unit losses of late.
Sunday reminded me why I only do half units in MLB spring. This has little to do with the Tigers, although several regulars are in and Framber Valdez is pitching. But Atlanta's lineup is utter trash -- I don't see a single close-to regular and maybe only a couple guys on the OD roster as reserves. Who the heck is cleanup hitter Tristin English? Maybe a modern-day Crash Davis considering he's almost 29 and has gotten a total of 22 at-bats in a cup of coffee in the Show. Both clubs come off Sunday ties, and that is a threat in the spring.