loading...
League Logo
MLB
League Logo
MLB
League Logo
NFL
All
    loading...
    Avatar
    Avatar

    Matt Severance

    Severance Pays

    Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past three MLB seasons, Matt is up $2,395 for $100 bettors. Over the past three NBA seasons, Matt has returned $4,452. And over the past four college basketball seasons, Matt is up $887. He went 103-89-2 (plus $665) in the 2023 college football season and 121-93-2 (plus $589) in the 2023 NFL season. Matt believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

    @jordanpaytonsn1
    79-33 in Last 112 MLB Props Picks
    +1238.5
    RECORD: 79-33-0
    +1238.5
    79-33 in Last 112 MLB Props Picks

    Get Access To
    ALL PICKS FROM Matt & THE REST OF OUR EXPERTS

    Get Today's Winners Here
    MLB

    Matt's Past Picks

    Jul 14 2024, 8:10 pm UTC
    League
    Toronto
    8
    @ Arizona
    7
    +781
    284-184-3 in Last 471 MLB Picks
    Analysis:

    Zac Gallen is a wizard at home so I'm surprised at this number or I would have played Snakes -1 at -104. Feel the ML should be around -170 and it is starting to tick up. Counterpart Yusei Kikuchi has 6.38 ERA and has given up eight homers over his last five starts. Could be his last outing as a Blue Jay with the lefty expected to be traded. Arizona ranks sixth in OPS vs. southpaws.

    Pick Made: Jul 14, 3:50 pm UTC on DraftKings
    Jul 14 2024, 8:05 pm UTC
    League
    Minnesota
    2
    @ San Francisco
    3
    +781
    284-184-3 in Last 471 MLB Picks
    +1799.5
    56-24 in Last 80 MIN ML Picks
    Analysis:

    The Giants are one of those clubs I try to avoid backing. Not really sure why just has been that way a few years. Can't ever seem to figure them out. However, we'll do a little here behind Blake Snell as he looked almost like his 2023 Cy self last time out in his return from the IL after a disastrous start to the season. Still would have likely passed but the Twins are down arguably their two best hitters in Carlos Correa and Jose Miranda. Minnesota starting pitcher Chris Paddack has an ERA near 8.00 on the road.

    Pick Made: Sun 6:40 pm UTC on Sugar House
    Jul 14 2024, 5:40 pm UTC
    League
    L.A. Dodgers
    3
    @ Detroit
    4
    +807.5
    37-20-3 in Last 60 MLB O/U Picks
    +410
    11-6 in Last 17 DET O/U Picks
    Analysis:

    Only like this with the hook. The weather doesn't seem all that conducive to hitting today in Detroit and this might get rained on -- so if it's shortened, our total play voids regardless. I do think playing Unders is overall smart today right before the break because managers can obviously use their entire bullpen if need be with all the days off. That said, both clubs are using openers.

    Pick Made: Sun 4:23 pm UTC on BetMGM
    Jul 14 2024, 5:40 pm UTC
    League
    Colorado
    8
    @ N.Y. Mets
    5
    +781
    284-184-3 in Last 471 MLB Picks
    +1183.5
    60-35 in Last 95 NYM ML Picks
    Analysis:

    I will say that Sundays are weird overall but the one right before the All-Star break can truly be wacky. We all know how it is pre-vacation. Lose focus, etc. It's the season debut of Colorado's German Marquez and he wasn't very good in his minor-league rehab with a 6.23 ERA over 17.1 innings. Counterpart Jose Quintana has now allowed a run in his past two (granted, both against the Nationals). Starting pitching almost matters the least today because bullpens can be used big time with all the off days coming. I would play -1 if available. but not liking -1.5.

    Pick Made: Jul 14, 3:42 pm UTC on DraftKings
    Jul 13 2024, 8:10 pm UTC
    League
    Miami
    6
    @ Cincinnati
    10
    +781
    284-184-3 in Last 471 MLB Picks
    +603
    18-8 in Last 26 MIA ML Picks
    Analysis:

    Tired of backing the Reds -- Ever get one of those teams you get bored with? Same stress every time -- but you can only do what the schedule gives you. Feels a shade light with Cincy's Andrew Abbott pitching. He has won four straight and six of seven (2.70 ERA in span), and the Fish have never seen him. I concur (saw an LA Law rerun last night for first time in years and now all I hear is concur) with RJ White on the Under 2.5 ER prop. Miami's Edward Cabrera is capable of dominating but also capable of walking the bases loaded in the bottom of the first on 11 pitches. Yes, 11. I assume one ball for a pitch clock violation.

    Pick Made: Jul 13, 2:46 pm UTC on BetMGM
    Jul 13 2024, 8:05 pm UTC
    League
    Oakland
    5
    @ Philadelphia
    11
    +781
    284-184-3 in Last 471 MLB Picks
    +1249.5
    20-3 in Last 23 OAK ML Picks
    Analysis:

    Worked out well for us last night. Was starting to think about a switch to capping soccer (hint: Under). Such a trap game for the Phils Friday. Sometimes think I might take intangibles too much into account but then that happens, so maybe not. Know little about today's starter Tyler Phillips other than sang at the end of Bridesmaids. Wait that was Wilson Phillips. Pains me to say I do like that song. Hey, it was the late 80s/early 90s. That or Billy Ocean (pass). The A's got their nice win but I expect a Philly big bounce back today and this still feels low even with the starting pitcher questions. Assuming it will be a bullpen day ahead of the break.

    Pick Made: Jul 13, 1:37 pm UTC on FanDuel
    Jul 13 2024, 8:05 pm UTC
    League
    N.Y. Yankees
    6
    @ Baltimore
    1
    +781
    284-184-3 in Last 471 MLB Picks
    +1481.75
    55-27 in Last 82 BAL ML Picks
    Analysis:

    Do I generally tail people? I do not. Like to have my own opinion. But do I listen/read others' opinions before making a decision? Of course. I don't pretend to know everything (as my wife reminds hourly). Long-time SL fan Brandon made a great point this morning to me: The sliding O's needed perhaps a fire lit, and it probably happened last night when Heston Kjerstad was plunked in the head, and Manager Brandon Hyde wanted to go all Tyler Durden on the Yankees. I can confidently state this is the biggest game of the Orioles' season so far. Grayson Rodriguez is 5-1 with a 2.27 ERA at home and threw 5.2 shutout innings vs. NYY on April 29.

    Pick Made: Jul 13, 2:12 pm UTC on Sugar House
    Jul 13 2024, 1:40 am UTC
    League
    Toronto
    4
    @ Arizona
    5
    +1129.5
    73-31 in Last 104 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    I almost need a reason not to go Over 14.5 outs and don't have one here. Jays rookie Yariel Rodriguez has looked like a different pitcher in two starts this month with B2B quality starts (0.72 ERA) and we don't need close to that. Rodriguez is a part of the team's future, so the Jays want to see what he has and I only expect a quick hook if blasted. And, again, managers want their guys to qualify for a win if possible. Rodriguez comes off the first W of his career.

    Pick Made: Jul 12, 12:31 pm UTC on BetMGM
    Jul 12 2024, 10:40 pm UTC
    League
    Oakland
    6
    @ Philadelphia
    2
    +781
    284-184-3 in Last 471 MLB Picks
    +793.5
    40-22 in Last 62 PHI ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    Really liking our new menu of props/books. I have been doing this for a couple of decades overall but finally can share things differently on here and learn how I think. (May not be a good thing as Steph Curry said in his Subway commercial. Does anyone actually think Steph Curry eats Subway? Does anyone? I loved it in college. Sorta my point.) This may well lose, but I would take +2.5 runs for the Bad News Bears -- only if Kelly Leak is pitching -- against the Phillies, who seem primed for a major letdown off the Dodgers series.

    Pick Made: Jul 12, 4:26 pm UTC on BetMGM
    Jul 12 2024, 10:40 pm UTC
    League
    L.A. Dodgers
    4
    @ Detroit
    3
    +781
    284-184-3 in Last 471 MLB Picks
    +770
    43-27 in Last 70 LAD ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    Had to see lineups off a tough Dodgers sweep in Philly. They are all in there. I said yesterday that I try to identify spots where perhaps urgency. The Orioles then went Kardashian. I have to take the Dodgers at +1.5 at a bad Detroit team even against Tarik Skubal. Also most of my friends are there so I have to have an opinion.

    Pick Made: Jul 12, 10:17 pm UTC on FanDuel
    Jul 11 2024, 10:35 pm UTC
    League
    Chi. Cubs
    8
    @ Baltimore
    0
    +781
    284-184-3 in Last 471 MLB Picks
    +1481.75
    55-27 in Last 82 BAL ML Picks
    Analysis:

    Try to identify where a team might be more motivated than a typical day (although at this point in the season, I think all teams are worn down -- hence some weird results pre-break). That would sure seem to be the case here for the Orioles to avoid a home sweep, which hasn't happened to them since 2022. Starting pitcher Albert Suarez is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA at home, and no Cody Bellinger for the Cubbies. Bellinger is not having the season he had in 2023 but still a big loss and had a very strong first two games at Camden Yards -- he's headed to the IL with a fractured finger. There goes the trade market.

    Pick Made: Jul 11, 8:20 pm UTC on FanDuel
    Jul 11 2024, 6:10 pm UTC
    League
    Pittsburgh
    1
    @ Milwaukee
    0
    +1129.5
    73-31 in Last 104 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    The amazing Paul Skenes has gone at least six in eight of his 10 outings so far and is 2-0 with a 1.11 ERA in four road starts. No weather concerns in Milwaukee and the Brewers haven't seen him. That the AS break is upcoming -- and if Skenes dominates here, he might start for the NL -- in theory should allow Skenes to throw a few more pitches than normal.

    Pick Made: Jul 11, 12:54 pm UTC on FanDuel
    Jul 11 2024, 5:10 pm UTC
    League
    Colorado
    1
    @ Cincinnati
    8
    +1129.5
    73-31 in Last 104 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    I'm doubling up on Colorado-Cincinnati with Elly De La Cruz out as I think the Reds are sluggish offensively today (winds not a factor). Austin Gomber definitely has struggled on the road, but I'm simply not a fan of that Cincy lineup now.

    Pick Made: Jul 11, 2:37 pm UTC on Caesars
    Jul 11 2024, 5:10 pm UTC
    League
    Colorado
    1
    @ Cincinnati
    8
    +807.5
    37-20-3 in Last 60 MLB O/U Picks
    Analysis:

    Totals have been perplexing me of late but I'm gonna play this now simply because the entire engine of the Cincinnati offense, Elly De La Cruz, is getting the day off. I would not play Reds ML or RL without him (glad I waited as always should). Hunter Greene should keep the Rox offense largely in check.

    Pick Made: Jul 11, 2:34 pm UTC on BetMGM
    Jul 10 2024, 11:10 pm UTC
    League
    Colorado
    6
    @ Cincinnati
    5
    +781
    284-184-3 in Last 471 MLB Picks
    +908.5
    43-34 in Last 77 COL ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    I heard of Sugar House previously but didn't know too much about that book. Starting to really like it as it is offering some different prop options than most others -- Reds -1, for example, instead of -1.5. Love this as now I can potentially push on some garbage late Rockies run to pull within one instead of losing. Think Astros RL bettors last night vs. Miami don't wish they had -1 available for a similar reason? Rox starter Kyle Freeland is 0-3 with an 11.94 ERA on the road.

    Pick Made: Jul 10, 7:06 pm UTC on Sugar House