Former NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara has made 13 starts this year and gone at least six in 10 of them. His home and day splits are better than the opposites. When Alcantara pitched in St. Pete on May 16 he threw six innings, allowing only an unearned run. I also have U18.5 available and that's tempting but Sandy has gone at least seven innings a few times so that scared me off. If he's not getting hit hard or wild, then six seems likely. The model has him at 6.2 innings. After using seven total pitchers on Saturday, the Marlins could use some length from Alcantara. Rays speedster and usual leadoff hitter Chandler Simpson is out again.
The Braves were one of my biggest plays of the season yesterday and came through easily and they are quite cheaply priced yet again. Like many rookie pitchers, Pittsburgh's Bubba Chandler (2-6, 4.89 ERA) has been wildly inconsistent The team is 3-9 in his 12 starts. Also the end of a trip for Pittsburgh. One of its better hitters in Brandon Lowe (15 HR, 41 RBI) may sit after leaving Saturday's loss injured. Atlanta's Bryce Elder is 3-1 with a 2.34 ERA at home and has a 0.48 ERA this year in all day starts.
I'm taking my pulse to make sure I'm not on something accidentally -- I did go to an Alice in Wonderland thing last night with the missus (it was terrible) and that cookie tasted tainted -- but wow the Braves are home dogs with Spencer Strider on the mound? And it's not like against the Dodgers? I honestly don't get this. Atlanta has the best record in baseball and not facing Paul Skenes. Pittsburgh is solid and Braxton Ashcraft has been good but come on. I'm not the type to take a -110-ish when I think the wrong team is favored. I take the +1.5 gift and I really don't care what it costs (within reason).
I'm starting to get PO'd at the Cubs. They just look flatlined (the Kevin Bacon/Julia Roberts version, not the terrible remake -- not that the original was all that great). Hey Craig Counsell, earn your dang money. But, I do like to play good teams at home the day after getting embarrassed. And the Cubbies sure were on Friday -- that stung. Maybe they just aren't that good, but I'm holding out hope that's not true. And arguably their best starting pitcher of late, Ben Brown, goes Saturday. The Giants hung 18 on Friday. They might not score 18 in the next five games combined. Winds apparently blowing in.
Not that Corey Seager is all that great these days (I thought he would be a superstar), but he has been activated off the IL for Texas. I guess I get why the Rangers are home dogs as Cleveland's Parker Messick -- guarantee you his parents watched "Parker Can't Lose" back in the day (I may have checked in a few times) -- is a top AL Rookie of the Year candidate. But the Rangers' Kumar Rocker was a much more touted prospect and has a 2.95 home ERA. I don't know if there has ever been an MLB game where I care less who wins. Just be by a run. Combined, they have played 37 one-run games. Our model has Texas winning.
Seattle is an average road team and playing in the Eastern Time Zone for the first time in 2026. I think that matters a little. Pitcher Bryan Woo is 1-3 with a 4.68 ERA away. Detroit has been a massive disappointment, no doubt, as has lefty Framber Valdez (2-4, 4.39 ERA). Why teams give $40-plus million to a starting pitcher who goes out there once every five days, I will never understand. If I'm ever an MLB owner (yeah right), that's an edict from Day 1: No long-term deals to pitchers. Hey, it works for the Rays. But I only need a one-run loss here. Seattle is dead last in the majors in OPS vs. southpaws at .620.
It is 5:22 a.m. Eastern and I just woke up -- early for me but I'm getting old. Probably start eating a ribeye and baked potato at around 4 p.m. at the early bird dinner rush (no, I don't want applesauce; no one does). What is more fun than waking up to wins when you assumed a loss? Carolina! Let's carry that momentum into Friday and the Jays are different at home. And not many pitchers with better stuff in the Show than rookie Trey Yesavage (2-2, 2.19 ERA). Wouldn't go betting Over whatever outs total as he's still on a bit of pitch count but usually goes at least five strong. Yesavage allowed a run over five last Saturday in a ND in Baltimore.
After another dominating performance on the mound and the plate Wednesday in a blowout win, Shohei Ohtani will not play tonight in the series finale in the desert. His bat has really come alive on an eight-game hitting streak, so that will be missed. Arizona pitcher Ryne Nelson has had three straight quality starts at home. L.A. southpaw Justin Wrobleski (7-2, 2.87 ERA) has been great, but the Snakes are 9-4 vs. lefties with the No. 2 OPS in the majors against them. A one-run loss works just fine.
The Giants were 1-0 winners on Wednesday but before the game put top setup man Matt Gage on the IL and then used their closer, Keaton Winn, for 1.2 innings so he may not be available Thursday. Starter Adrian Houser is 2-5 with a 5.59 ERA. Milwaukee used essentially only two long relievers in Wednesday's loss so the all the high-leverage relievers are good to go for this one behind Coleman Crow. The Brew Crew are 3-0 in the rookie's three starts even if he hasn't gotten a decision yet.
Brutal afternoon -- not so much lost big but the losses were very lopsided. Road dogs 3-0 today, so that's obviously concerning but I really don't want to be blanked so let's throw a half on this. No George Springer for the Jays, who have lost three in a row and are seven games under .500 away. Patrick Corbin continues to be solid, but Atlanta is 18-7 vs. southpaws. Corbin is 0-11 against Atlanta in his past 12 outings dating to Sept. 6, 2019. The last MLB pitcher to suffer a 12-game losing streak to the same team was Mark Buehrle against the Yankees from 2004-14.
The White Sox are just different away and without Munetaka Murakami as they are about to be swept in the Twin Cities. Today's lineup leaves a lot to be desired in a getaway game. Erick Fedde has been the weak link of the rotation at 0-5 with a 5.40 ERA, and his road splits are horrendous. Counterpart Taj Bradley has a 2.33 home ERA. Minny isn't very good overall but 17-14 at Target Field. Looks like all the Twins' regulars are in. Since 2020, nobody in baseball has homered more against the White Sox than Minnesota's Byron Buxton (17).
The Rays lead the majors in home wins, while the Tigers have the most road losses. So of course Detroit is trying for the sweep on Wednesday. The Tigers have mauled Rays pitching in the first two games. But Wednesday TB starter Nick Martinez is 3-0 with a 1.47 ERA at home. Tampa Bay tries to avoid its first home sweep of the year. End of a trip for Detroit, which tries for its first three-game road winning streak. Troy Melton (1-0, 1.42 ERA) has been quite good in two starts, but I'm skeptical.
The Rays have looked a bit mortal of late and lost at home to the Tigers on Monday but at least largely reset the key members of the bullpen. Detroit used about every reliever it has and starts the mega-terrible Jack Flaherty (0-7, 5.81 ERA) on the mound tonight. He has been the biggest money-losing pitcher in the Junior Circuit. The Tigers last won a Flaherty start on Tax Day. Lefty Steven Matz (4-2, 4.67 ERA) isn't my favorite Rays starting pitcher, but the Tigers are 6-14 vs. southpaws.
Pretty much the same rules as always apply (-1 or not bat B9 are solid cheaper alternatives) at a ML price like this, but the Brewers easily cashed Monday in a blowout win and have a much better pitching matchup in their favor Tuesday with lefty Kyle Harrison opposed by Trevor McDonald. Harrison (6-1, 1.57 ERA) was once a touted SF prospect who was traded to Boston about a year ago this time and then rerouted this offseason in a Brewers steal. Harrison should be getting more talk for the NL Cy Young and surely will be fired up to face his former organization for the first time. The Giants' Trevor McDonald (2-2, 4.34) has lost back-to-back starts. SF is 11-21 away.
Landen Roupp (5-5, 3.30 ERA) is having a nice season for the Giants, but they are not in the Brewers' league, metaphorically speaking, otherwise and have lost five of six. Plus, they have the proverbial Coors Field hangover. It's a bullpen day for Milwaukee with Chad Patrick (2.60 ERA) as the primary. The Brewers are 18-5 in their past 23 overall and 19-11 this season at home.